weathafella Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It is still good to have it. It loses its luster a bit deeper into March but we've had some pretty big storm episodes in March with the aid of blocking. March 2001 was classic and so was March 2005 and March 2013. All very strong -NAO blocks. Deeper into the month and April it tends to matter less with shortening wavelengths. Like March 31-April 1, 1997 was a positive NAO and a West coast trough...normally you wouldn't forecast an epic storm in that setup. Pretty sure April '82 had no real blocking too. Thanks Will. Let's see if this year follows suit with the years mentioned...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Days 9-10 son Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The blocking next week also features a cutter. It's not always a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The block is kind of east based for my liking but at least having one at all makes a correction south more likely than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 I am seeing amplitude modeled in the overnight operational model runs that suffices the signal we've been discussing over recent days... Unfortunately ... there's a rub. The evolution of it all is not servicing the winter enthusiasts very well. This is the way the devil pays you back in cinema and literature. muah haha. The heights in the deep south, much in the way Jerry and my conjecture in yesterday's mashed up, seems to still be in play and buffers these trough amplitudes. Adding in nuances in the evolution/orientation of blocking, and the result does satisfy the correlation, but it all edges wrongly for what folks want. In any event, there may be a swath of light snow on Friday. Kind of a Lance Bozart look to that. In fact, the very case he sited in his paper I saw back in the NE storm conference (circa 1997) was a 10" fluff bomb that struck along the Mass Pike on a west wind! Pretty cool... Looks similar to me just on the surface, and though it may very well prove not to be a very good analog ... the point is, lesser ticket showings can sometimes produce. Plus, I'm having plenty of doubts that this pattern can deepen a midland cyclone, let alone stem wind a bomb, under the 40th parallel. Been coveting that reservation all year really... It's not that I feel a 'loss' for not. It's really more about "sensing" it's wasting time looking for something that's never going to happen? Sometimes when things are in a rut and you keep watching for something that never seems to come, ...circumstances seemingly emerging perfectly even to stop things from happening, too... (haha) ...I mean, it's normal to sense futility there. We'll see, but Jerry and I hit on some systemic issues with the circulation overall, yesterday, and even if the NAO evolves a bit more west, I'd worry about the heights in the deep south really imposing more gradient and causing things to shear. Physical catch-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Yeah John. I think that's why some of the guidance is minoring out the Friday system. GFS is steadfast so that's somewhat encouraging but the rest of the suite needs to get on board soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah John. I think that's why some of the guidance is minoring out the Friday system. GFS is steadfast so that's somewhat encouraging but the rest of the suite needs to get on board soon. it's interesting the GFS is so persistent with that feature. to be defined for the hyper sensitive: it's a minor thing to begin with ... we're just talking about 1-3" ...maybe 5" in some weird meso thing on a hill-top west of Orange... blah blah... but, wandering through the desert, one does not cast doubt at the mirage. Heh. Friday's system can "fit" inside the teleconnectors tho - ...It's an 'in-betweener', a perturbation that's not driven along by large correction such as teleconnectors that are in the process of modulation. Hence the 'little critters that bite'. In a sense, it can squeeze through a compressed flow that way. But it's true the GFS is on a lonely band-wagon with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Kind of bummed I may miss the Friday deal, if it were to verify, cause I'll be in Palm Springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I'd like to see that 2-3" materialize on Friday simply to progress towards the verification of my forecasted seasonal totals in a few areas, but aside from that, I'm beyond the point of cheerleading nuisance variety. I'm ready to move on, but realize that we aren't there yet. As far as Friday goes....I'll take the under on 3" at most locales, and go from there. Glad to see that some NAO assist, though not ideal, looks to finally materialize and suspect that something may burgeon into existence at a relatively short lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I'd probably keep an open mind for next week...there's a ton of spread and it's no surprise that a lot of it is just how much of an influence the NAO block exerts. I wouldn't set the bar extremely high, but I also wouldn't just say "cutter, rinse and repeat" either. Even if we do get a cutter, there's probably some decent room for additional winter threats behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 GFS ticking south with Friday clipper. Would like to see other guidance have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS ticking south with Friday clipper. Would like to see other guidance have it. Looks like a GFS fantasy...all other guidance has the thing put through the meat grinder maybe producing some snow showers down in the Mid-Atlantic. It's 4-5 days out, so it's possible other guidance trends toward it, but I'm selling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 13 hours ago, dendrite said: I remember one day we had a cheap early midnight high here, but the afternoon only got up to 5F with strong winds. That's about as cold as it gets for a week into March. I think -10F was my coldest min, but I don't recall going calm. The co-op observer in New Sharon, 3 miles to my SSE, recorded 1/-11 on 3/7/07, thanks to a 7 AM obs time. My afternoon high on 3/6 was -2 with strong winds, but that was spiked by the 19F reading at my 9 PM obs the previous evening. The Farmington co-op had 9 at its midnight obs, and I've no idea what they had for the afternoon but would guess at zero or -1. Both Farmington and I had 7 for a high on the 8th, the NS co-op recording 9 that day. Farmington's coldest March max on record is 6, in 1950, so that 3/6/07 afternoon was hugely anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a GFS fantasy...all other guidance has the thing put through the meat grinder maybe producing some snow showers down in the Mid-Atlantic. It's 4-5 days out, so it's possible other guidance trends toward it, but I'm selling right now. GFS GEFS is trash , GGEM doing real well with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd probably keep an open mind for next week...there's a ton of spread and it's no surprise that a lot of it is just how much of an influence the NAO block exerts. I wouldn't set the bar extremely high, but I also wouldn't just say "cutter, rinse and repeat" either. Even if we do get a cutter, there's probably some decent room for additional winter threats behind it. You should... limitations should not be feared and loathed. Nor, construed as anti-cast' either. We...or I anyway, try to nip surprises in the bud -- usually...unsuccessfully. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a GFS fantasy...all other guidance has the thing put through the meat grinder maybe producing some snow showers down in the Mid-Atlantic. It's 4-5 days out, so it's possible other guidance trends toward it, but I'm selling right now. I agree. Was just saying that at work. Even the "you get a KU and you get a KU" Canadian has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Blocking kind of doing it's thing on the GFS next week...although it shears it out on the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Blocking kind of doing it's thing on the GFS next week...although it shears it out on the op run. I think light-to-moderate will be the rule from here on out, barring a bowling ball that avails itself of wave length morphologies. I'll bet against that, but still could see a nice event or two hanging in the balance. No complaints from me...this was a clinic in how to enhance the sensible appeal of a winter that struggles to snow to climo IMBY....over half of the snow in a 10 day stretch to maximize impact and reduce nuisance variety with a relative dearth of useless cold...in that it usually warmed up during protracted stretches of ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think light-to-moderate will be the rule from here on out, barring a bowling ball that avails itself of wave length morphologies. I'll bet against that, but still could see a nice event or two hanging in the balance. No complaints from me...this was a clinic in how to enhance the sensible appeal of a winter that struggles to snow to climo IMBY....over half of the snow in a 10 day stretch to maximize impact and reduce nuisance variety with a relative dearth of useless cold...in that it usually warmed up during protracted stretches of ennui. JMHO, but this winter kind of frustrated me. Just as it seemed like winter made an appearance..a parade of cutters decided to rain down and snow vaporized faster than the hopes of Falcon fans with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I appreciated the two large storms...but the timing to eff with winter enthusiasts was on the money. I did not expect a winter as warm as this one will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Yea...it was frustrating at times, but certainly could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: JMHO, but this winter kind of frustrated me. Just as it seemed like winter made an appearance..a parade of cutters decided to rain down and snow vaporized faster than the hopes of Falcon fans with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I appreciated the two large storms...but the timing to eff with winter enthusiasts was on the money. I did not expect a winter as warm as this one will be. See ... I knew this was true. I opined on this subject matter a couple times over the last month, how this winter really went out of it's way to get an average snow fall in an insidiously way - you ended up with your totals 'under the radar' when ironically, the purpose of the enthusiasts hobby is to actually get it on that proverbial radar... ahahaha. what a gyp eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: JMHO, but this winter kind of frustrated me. Just as it seemed like winter made an appearance..a parade of cutters decided to rain down and snow vaporized faster than the hopes of Falcon fans with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I appreciated the two large storms...but the timing to eff with winter enthusiasts was on the money. I did not expect a winter as warm as this one will be. You got too emotionally invested. It happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 We did pretty well all things considered....this was not a classic pattern to get cold and snow. The SE ridge was more robust (and west) than we'd typically like and the N PAC ridging was suppressed to the southwest a bit, which ensured that we stayed fairly warm across a lot of North America save the PAC NW and the N Rockies. Still, we had enough of a gradient pattern to produce at times...and we still have a chunk of snowfall climo yet left to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 GfS shows good blocking. I wouldny be shocked to see Friday's clipper come more south and also watch Tuesday's storm. This past run had a transfer where the past runs didnt. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I got too emotionally invested. It happens Yes, you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GfS shows good blocking. I wouldny be shocked to see Friday's clipper come more south and also watch Tuesday's storm. This past run had a transfer where the past runs didnt. Interesting times ahead. Friday's "clipper" is a meat grinder system...nobody's getting much of anything out of that. Maybe some snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 now that I have accepted spring temps and flavor watch a monster hit Mid Month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 Finally just saw the 00z GEF tele's and heh... okay - less impressive... It almost seems this season is trying to evolve away from winter from the top down to the foundation - like in the other direction. Look at the 12z Euro... -30 C NW of James Bay (850 mb) while it's +20 in western Nebraska under a ginormous galactic scale -sized omega flow construct. Omega's are typically in spring anyway; that depiction there is a monster version. But meh, it's likely a D 10 computer enhanced fantasy. Just that it's like showing up to collect a pay check when you've called in sick - face. palm. smack face, with palm.. nice. In any event, if the tele's are jumping ship... this doesn't have a big March vibe about it, huh -. Perfect... my early spring evil plan i almost complete... I remember ruminating a couple months ago this would happen... soon as the seasonal height compression relaxed...boinnng... the south bounced back north. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Euro laughs at the clipper and cuts next week. Theme of the winter. We'll see of Snow88 saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro laughs at the clipper and cuts next week. Theme of the winter. We'll see of Snow88 saves us. yeah, I'm out at this point too - ooph. I was weighing in the tele's for reasons to correct and keep an open mind, but they're bailing on us - ...hheeh yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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