January 23rd-24th Storm Threat

[ag3]

The main threat for this storm is moderate to major coastal flooding. Especially for LI sound locations and back bays of the south shore.

As currently modeled, it's a major coastal event.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

The main threat for this storm is moderate to major coastal flooding. Especially for LI sound locations and back bays of the south shore.

As currently modeled, it's a major coastal event.

Could be some inland flooding as well depending on where the heaviest rains setup. The 12z NAM has 2-3" of rain already fallen by Monday afternoon with more to come.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Epic blue bomb for the poconos Catskills berks and greens.

 

at-least NW New Jersey as well.     

It's a noobie thing to just look at the freezing line, without ingesting the dynamics and overall picture. 

[qg_omega]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It would be much worse for the South Shore if there would be strong SE wind during the time of high tide. If the models shift to more of a NE wind, it will be much worse for the typical nor'easter spots on the north shore. The south shore problem areas like Freeport will likely flood regardless with a strong fetch for so long. 

yes, I am not too concerned about flooding here on the south shore, the usual spots will see flooding.

[NJwx85]

These are sustained winds on the NAM

[NJwx85]

Hurricane force winds at 925mb on the NAM for a period on Monday afternoon. Could mix down if some heavier convection does indeed make it this far North.

[Superstorm93]

Hour 84 is just intense for the NYC area. 

 

[Superstorm93]

ECM Ocean model is putting out 20 foot waves just offshore 

 

[MJO812]

Wind gusts near 60mph on the Nam for the coast

[WEATHERBUFF]

35 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Starting to look as if even the inland folks won't escape and all rain solution

Just the goofy gfs and one of it's off the wall runs!

[Superstorm93]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wind gusts near 60mph on the Nam for the coast

 

Well over 60 

 

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Starting to look as if even the inland folks won't escape and all rain solution

i'm so surprised

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, Paragon said:

blue bomb in the Poconos? How high up?  We have a house there about 1,800 ft in elevation but it's actually a county north of Allentown (Carbon county), so it's south of I-80

I would want to above 2k for an all snow event. So that puts everyone in this region out of the game for a true blue bomb. Mt pocono at 1,988' should be good to go. This is a ski resort special for the Catskills and Greens. 

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would want to above 2k for an all snow event. So that puts everyone in this region out of the game for a true blue bomb. Mt pocono at 1,988' should be good to go. This is a ski resort special for the Catskills and Greens. 

 

 

yea, it'll be an epic blue bomb up here, but elevations above 1000 feet as well.   parts of NJ will be white as well. 

[mikemost]

12z GFS - Look at the 250mb jet go negative right over the area. Incredible moisture fetch from the Caribbean right to your doorstep. Much of those 850mb winds mix down with the intense dynamics being modeled. Significant impacts inland. Serious situation for the coast.

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm so surprised

Really? I figured you of all people would have seen it coming

[NJwx85]

PWAT's approach 1.2" on Monday afternoon on the 12z GFS. That's insane for mid to late January. Surface winds have definitly ticked upwards as well in the last 24 hours.

[Animal]

33 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

yea, it'll be an epic blue bomb up here, but elevations above 1000 feet as well.   parts of NJ will be white as well. 

How much snow is forecasted in nw nj.

mt holly nws is forecasting an almost all rain event everywhere.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Animal said:

Come on now. No talk of snow anywhere in their zone with the storm in the 930 am afd. Mentions possible patch freezing rain or light snow to start Sunday night in poconos or parts of Sussex County.

 

It's January and there's a storm. I think it will snow several inches all the way to the coast. I have no scientific reasoning but hey

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's January and there's a storm. I think it will snow several inches all the way to the coast. I have no scientific reasoning but hey

Feen?

[NJwx85]

This is an all rain event for 99.99% of the region and even those that do manage to see a few flakes won't receive much. Even Mt. Pocono is forecasted to be in the lower 40's by Monday afternoon. Embrace the rain, it's the only thing you have. Oh and maybe embrace falling trees and power outages too.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It would be much worse for the South Shore if there would be strong SE wind during the time of high tide. If the models shift to more of a NE wind, it will be much worse for the typical nor'easter spots on the north shore. The south shore problem areas like Freeport will likely flood regardless with a strong fetch for so long. 

Yep I was worried a couple of days ago about the south shore when the modeled were showing prolonged SE winds but now it's the north shore that should be worried with those persistent NE winds.  With that said Freeport and Lindenhurst should see some moderate flooding. 

[NJwx85]

18 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

c'mon you know how they roll.

be conservative until there's high confidence.

I'm 100% confident that NYC won't see a single flake in this event.

[NJwx85]

Kind of interesting, setup is almost similar to that of a tropical system merging with a frontal boundary. Starts raining as early as Saturday night and doesn't quit until Tuesday night.

[NJwx85]

This is the coldest panel on the GGEM. You would need to be up near Monticello to get snow. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The models do not take elevation into account well. There will be snow at high enough elevations. I'm talking the top of the pocono plateau  Catskills peaks and souinches thern greens. Above 2k. Think of this like a very early or very late season event based on the encendent airmass. This is not a snow event for anyone in our area and the entire state of New Jersey. You need to be high enough up to have temps cold enough to overcome the warmth. Really this is a peaks storm. Over 3k your talking feet. The peaks of the Catskills saw feet (I believe 5) during March 2010

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

cold air damming is increasingly being indicated on the models, so freezing rain isn't totally out yet either.   (1000+ feet plus)

as we get closer, it'll trend colder.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, in message #59, I posted statistical snowfall probabilities for New York City for the upcoming storm based on a PNA+/AO+/EPO- setup. It now appears that the EPO will actually be positive for the upcoming storm.

I re-ran the numbers for a PNA+/AO+/EPO+ setup that takes into consideration the values of each of the indices. The 12z GFS outcome fits what one would expect from the forecast pattern. No snow remains the most likely outcome.

Climatology (1981-2010):
No snow: 40%
< 0.5” snow: 58%
0.5” or more snow: 42%
1.0” or more snow: 25%

Forecast Pattern:
No snow: 39%
< 0.5” snow: 98%
0.5” or more snow: 2%
1.0” or more snow: Near 0%

[mikemost]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, in message #59, I posted statistical snowfall probabilities for New York City for the upcoming storm based on a PNA+/AO+/EPO- setup. It now appears that the EPO will actually be positive for the upcoming storm.

I re-ran the numbers for a PNA+/AO+/EPO+ setup that takes into consideration the values of each of the indices. The 12z GFS outcome fits what one would expect from the forecast pattern. No snow remains the most likely outcome.

Climatology (1981-2010):
No snow: 40%
< 0.5” snow: 58%
0.5” or more snow: 42%
1.0” or more snow: 25%

Forecast Pattern:
No snow: 39%
< 0.5” snow: 98%
0.5” or more snow: 2%
1.0” or more snow: Near 0%

Kudos as always, Don.

[mikemost]

Not sure if NWS discussion belongs in Vendor thread or here... Please move if necessary. I'm a little uncertain as to why Mt. Holly seems to be quite cavalier in their wording in this morning's AFD. Precipitation discussion is one thing, but no mention of the potentially damaging winds being depicted on the majority of guidance? Upton singing a more expected tune.

Mt. Holly:

It looks like there will be a pd of steady, heavy rain Sunday
night, especially over srn areas, though the guid still differs
on where the heaviest rain will fall and when.

The GFS wants to bring in a lull in the precip area wide on
Mon mrng while the ECMWF keeps it wet. The EC has perhaps a lull
later Mon. But it seems there will be a second wave at some
point on Mon, again, exactly where and when is difficult to
pinpoint attm. Yet a third wave looks to move thru Mon night
before the low pulls away from the region and things dry out
durg the second half of Tue.

Temps look to be above nrml durg this whole event and the vast
majority of the region will see plain rain durg the whole time
frame. However, temps could be marginally cold enough in the
Poconos and portions of Sussex County NJ Sun night for some
light amounts of freezing rain and there could be some light
amounts of snow as the cold air wraps around the low Monday
night. Neither of these look to be significant events, but
obviously bear watching.

OKX:

Potential for strong, possibly damaging easterly winds, continues
to increase. EPS probabilities of sustained 40 mph winds and 60
mph wind gusts continue to remain high for the coastline and now
also for the highest interior elevations, and its probabilities of
45-mph wind gusts are over 50 percent over most of the area. Also,
both GFS and ECMWF MOS continue to predict increasing potential
for sustained winds over 30 mph Mon night into Tue morning,
perhaps as high as 40 mph at the peak of the storm across Long
Island/coastal CT/NYC metro.