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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill
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Question: (I apologize in advance if this is considered Banter or just Stupid in general)  Do certain models do better historically based on the direction the storms come in from in terms of accuracy?  Example:  GFS does better with generally south to north storms as opposed to Euro doing better west to east storms.   I creep the boards constantly and I really appreciate all the help.  In fact, you guys saved me from a disastrous trip to Richmond last weekend where I would have been snowed in with my in-laws. Thanks in advance!

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. 

        There is no shortage of cases in which the GFS runs too warm at the sfc with low-level inversions, especially in winter precip events.    

 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. 

obviously, this is the 500mb map that will likely give us our only so this winter.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011112&fh=78

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17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bob, idk about south with the CMC, more like just weaker

gem_asnow_neus_20.png

That little stripe of snow across MD on the GGEM is actually from the second impulse Saturday Night into Sunday.  By then the temps are compromised more, although if things keep trending colder perhaps that second wave becomes a player also.  On the euro and gfs its the first wave Saturday that is the main event.  GGEM goes well south and has no frozen with that.  Also weaker and south in this case are kind of the same thing as a more suppressed weak solution is likely to be south.  Notice on the GEFS and Euro members, the ones that are south have a less healthy snowfall max, while some of the runs that have it up over central PA have a pretty significant event up there.  A stronger wave is also likely to have a more north track.  So we are kind of walking the line again, we want a weak enough wave to stay south but not too weak.  Our best combo would be a healthy wave but with a stronger high and cold push to offset but that is kind of getting greedy.  

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6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Interesting to see that the misses miss north as opposed to what we saw on the Ukie/GGEM

I wonder if that could be because the GFS is not recognizing the strength of the cold weather push like the NAM is?

ETA: Or the answer could be what high risk just posted below

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Weekend rule.  It's HAPPENING!

It is weird how that seems to work out.  I'll take a 2-4" daytime snow over 4-8" nighttime.  This seems to be the year of the stalled out front.  I have a feeling we won't know much until tomorrow with that kind of setup where it's not a big storm, but one that requires good timing/placement.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

wonder if that blob of moisture at 12z ever makes it north into the colder air on the euro?

the first wave looks pretty Meh to me overall... weaker, souther, more pathetic.  some very light qpf makes it up into MD saturday but its snizzle type stuff certainly nothing exciting.  Wave 2 might get some qpf in but by then temps are probably compromised, although if things keep trending colder perhaps that becomes the main threat not wave 1.  

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