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UlsterCountySnowZ

January Model discussion

268 posts in this topic

50 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said:

most of us just had 6-10 inches of snow four days ago, we'll be alright

What about those of us that didn't?

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48 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

What did the 12z Euro show for the weekend? I'm assuming nothing. 

Through the end of the run at 240hr, less than 1" for the area.

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30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Through the end of the run at 240hr, less than 1" for the area.

Almost time to weenie out if accurate.

bet we get one of those big fat dog storms soon. Going to check my bike tires for air, may ride my bike off a cliff if "no" snow for a ten rack.

 

 

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2 hours ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said:

most of us just had 6-10 inches of snow four days ago, we'll be alright

Those of us in the interior missed out on that.

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13 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Those of us in the interior missed out on that.

It's almost all gone now besides dirty piles, so we're all good. 

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27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and Nam are more north with Saturdays event than previous runs.

GGEM was too.  All develop some sort of surface reflection off NJ.  Those little surface lows can turn these events into bigger ones.  Right now its a bit too late developing and south still to have a big impact.

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On 1/11/2017 at 1:33 PM, SnowBlitzkrieg said:

most of us just had 6-10 inches of snow four days ago, we'll be alright

Most? Even NYC didn't attain the mark of 6 or more. Literally it was specifically only LI, and that isn't most.

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1 minute ago, nesussxwx said:

Most? Even NYC didn't attain the mark of 6 or more. Literally it was specifically only LI, and that isn't most.

What?

JFK had over 8 inches

I had close to 7 inches

That amount in NYC seems low.

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Let's not forget we have this thread for model discussion, so as not to clog the discussion/OBS thread with 240hr GGEM snowstorms....

 

with that said:

 

EPS/ GEFS disagree on event in day 7 timeframe, no Gefs members signal snow, while a surprising amount of EPS members have a decent snow event with cold in place  

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Let's not forget we have this thread for model discussion, so as not to clog the discussion/OBS thread with 240hr GGEM snowstorms....

 

with that said:

 

EPS/ GEFS disagree on event in day 7 timeframe, no Gefs members signal snow, while a surprising amount of EPS members have a decent snow event with cold in place  

CMC also has it being a snowstorm with cold being drawn in from the northeast.

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2nqcz0g.jpg

any GGEM fans left out there? Lol.... this models is a joke...major run to run swings is its MO

 

btw GFS and euro are still a soaking rainstorm, euros not quite as epic with 1-2" of rain this time, 2-3 out on eastern LI

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On 1/12/2017 at 3:40 PM, nesussxwx said:

Most? Even NYC didn't attain the mark of 6 or more. Literally it was specifically only LI, and that isn't most.

Don't ever use Central Park totals when quoting amounts for NYC snowfall totals. The Conservancy always under measures as did the zookeeper before them. it's what they do, they either don't give a sh!t which I think is the most likely, or they're just plain incompetent. Their measurements during the last 2 storms have been in line with everyone else at 4pm and then at 7pm and midnight they seem to not measure at all or just throw in a low figure just because no one is there then to measure or whoever is could care less..

Jan 7 storm, EWR 5.8, LGA 7.0, JFK 8.2 and KNYC 5.1.

All 4 were half an inch or so apart at 4pm and at midnight not so much. There was a definitive increase west to east from that storm so take EWR at 5.8 and LGA at 7.0 and KNYC was most likely 6.5 or so. I've sent e-mails in the past and they have corrected at times later on. For now they are ignoring this one even though the mistake is obvious, again.

They also F'd up the Jan 14 total at KNYC in the exact same pattern as they F'd up the Jan 7 storm but at this point they've worn me down through the years and I'm starting to not care.

If anyone does write NOAA at [email protected]

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23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Another interior ggem weenie run, however did decrease totals with more rain34nnuy8.jpg

GFS is starting to show something similar as well. Not quite as robust as the GGEM but there is something there now.

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the ggem shows snow because it develops a lead wave which pulls marginal cold down before the main storm. however it's alone with this idea and the 12z run shifted toward the other models

trend gif:

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh102_trend.gif

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