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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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2 minutes ago, ashhh_2007 said:

What's the outlook for the Lee county (Sanford) area?


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Rain and sleet and some ZR. Maybe some snow towards the end of the storm

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Think they put it out early at 11AM, but I could be wrong

They did update their winter storm warning statement.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
417 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-071015-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170108T0000Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHY FORK...CONCORD...ROXBORO...SURL...
OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...DABNEY...HENDERSON...NORLINA...
WISE...AFTON...WARRENTON...LAKE GASTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
PFAFFTOWN...STANLEYVILLE...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
LAKE TOWNSEND...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...
CARRBORO...BETHESDA...DURHAM...RESEARCH TRIANGLE...PILOT...
INGLESIDE...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...AVENTON...
RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...
THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ULAH...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...HASTY...
SILER CITY...BYNUM...MONCURE...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY
417 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE
  TRIAD AND TRIANGLE.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO ONE INCH OF
  SLEET.

* TIMING...A SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARNING AREA
  THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 6 PM IN
  THE TRIAD AND BY 8 PM IN THE TRIANGLE. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 INCLUDING PORTIONS
  OF WAKE...FRANKLIN...NASH...AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...SNOW IS
  EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR TRANSITION TO SLEET EARLY SATURDAY
  MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
  ENDING LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS MAY VARY WIDELY IN THIS REGION...FROM 3-4 INCHES
  IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WAKE...NASH...WILSON AND EDGECOMBE
  COUNTIES WHERE SLEET WILL FALL FOR A LONGER DURATION OF TIME TO
  5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS WHERE THE TRANSITION TO SLEET
  WILL BE BRIEF.

  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
  THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE TRIAD AND VIRGINIA
  BORDER COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 2
  INCHES PER HOUR AND TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 8
  INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL ON AREA ROADS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
  OR IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MANY ROADS WILL BE IMPASSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN...LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE...
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION...PARTICULARLY AT INTERSECTIONS AND
ON HIGHWAY ONRAMPS AND OFFRAMPS WHERE ACCIDENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

$$

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8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

RAH stated they were going to upgrade your county to a warning because of the ice.

I have scratched my head all day as to why no concern has been put on the ZR. Sleet is one thing, ZR is a whole different beast.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

HRRR just takes every other model accumulation map and shifts it 50 miles NW. 

Seems like this is a quick hitter too. Maybe 8 hours of snow? 

Been thinking all along that this is a 'moderate' level storm Niner, not a big boy....we shall see. 

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I know it's nowcasting time, but quite something to see the 18z GFS initialize the 500 mb trough even sharper than 12z at 6 hours and keep sharpening it vs. 12z in the next frame.

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Sitting at 33F... It would be nice if we could get some cooling once the system starts to ramp up again, and then maybe my area will fall below freezing before 8pm. Maybe?

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

I know it's nowcasting time, but quite something to see the 18z GFS initialize the 500 mb trough even sharper than 12z at 6 hours and keep sharpening it vs. 12z in the next frame.

any shifts? 

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23 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

Yes it will.... GSP just sent out a tweet about it too. All this we are getting now is not even the "storm" yet

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-06 at 4.33.41 PM.png

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The Radar is Looking Healthy west of RDU..should reach the Triangle in about 45 mins..2 hours ahead of schedule.  could get an hour or two extra of moderate snow before the main storm gets cranking

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Mid to late evening? Like in a few hours? I thought the heaviest precip was certainly still progged overnight.


For my location the assumption is post 7 PM.


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A little wetter for I-85/I-40 corridor -- little better on 2m temps in N.C. Good run for most.


Check and check


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8 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

The Radar is Looking Healthy west of RDU..should reach the Triangle in about 45 mins..2 hours ahead of schedule.  could get an hour or two extra of moderate snow before the main storm gets cranking

Still raining here. Not sure about that.

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The fact That the GFS hasn't reallyswayed too North west like some models gives me hope that the sleet/snow line will stay just south of wake

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I notice on radar precipitation all the way back to Texas and Louisiana. Is this going to fill back in and progress through the SE? To my untrained eye, it doesn't appear to be receding too quickly.


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Just now, wxdawg10 said:

The fact That the GFS hasn't reallyswayed too North west like some models gives me hope that the sleet/snow line will stay just south of wake

I am hugging it until the very end. It is hell bent on keeping big totals near RDU

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17 minutes ago, griteater said:

Been thinking all along that this is a 'moderate' level storm Niner, not a big boy....we shall see. 

yeah, I may have had those nice GFS and NAM runs get to my head.  With that said my goal is still 6 inches NW of CLT.  That's within your call I think so it has to be right!

Moderate snow here now. Sleet turned quickly to snow.  Good sign? 

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Just now, wxdawg10 said:

The fact That the GFS hasn't reallyswayed too North west like some models gives me hope that the sleet/snow line will stay just south of wake

PREACH. 

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5 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

GFS shifted SE a touch. Cmon GFS you got this 

Sure did. A little less qpf but puts more in the snow zone.

**Wayne county would also now get over a half inch of freezing rain.

 

snku_acc.us_ma2.jpg

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