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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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5 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Here are some pipe busting temps Monday morning!

GFS has temperatures down to near 10 in Atlanta multiple nights in a row. If downtown got 6-8" and had those temps to follow it would be until mid-week before things got anywhere close to normal. The tick north continues on the GFS. 

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Look at those color drop offs between ATL and GSP! GFS's warm nose is going to kill some accumulation numbers through there. I've seen it time and time again. That thing better stay away from my house

image.png

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42 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The 6Z suite was pure awesomeness. However, I echo what Falls just said. Past experience suggests that one should expect about half of what these clown maps spit out. 

I dunno arent most of these maps 10:1 ratios?  Someone posted a map yesterday suggesting ratios closer to 13-15:1 for a lot of central and eastern NC.....most models are saying around 1" QPF or so IMBY and with this setup thats not terribly unreasonable and if ratios are 12:1 then 8-12" isnt far off. 

laast Euro run using a 15:1 ratio...so half this and thats probably closer

ecmwf_tsnow_15_raleigh_18.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

I dunno arent most of these maps 10:1 ratios?  Someone posted a map yesterday suggesting ratios closer to 13-15:1 for a lot of central and eastern NC.....most models are saying around 1" QPF or so IMBY and with this setup thats not terribly unreasonable and if ratios are 12:1 then 8-12" isnt far off. 

I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong, but just saying that past experience has taught me to temper my expectations somewhere below the clowns. Hope you score big down east! 

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Wow at the 6z GEFS!  It followed the op and really increased totals across the board.  At least 4 inch mean for all of NC, and now parts of NE GA and the upstate of SC.  I'm guessing the ensembles are locked in.  This is probably the last run where we should put much emphases on the ensembles.  Time to depend on the operationals and hi-res models.

Earlier 0z

snod.conus.png

New 6z!

snod.conus.png

 

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong, but just saying that past experience has taught me to temper my expectations somewhere below the clowns. Hope you score big down east! 

Oh I agree that clown maps are called that for a reason, but then again every once in a awhile we do get hammered.....I would think a general 3-6" for most of NC with a band of 6-10" is a safe legit expectation.....but if this bust it will be to the high side I think....

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

Wow at the 6z GEFS!  It followed the op and really increased totals across the board.  At least 4 inch mean for all of NC, and now parts of NE GA and the upstate of SC.  I'm guessing the ensembles are locked in.  This is probably the last run where we should put much emphases on the ensembles.  Time to depend on the operationals and hi-res models.

Yep, it's about now-casting time, and radar watching! Almost!! This has been a great storm to track! Let's keep the good mojo!

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1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Well... looks like we're back to where the GFS was (almost) the other day.

BTW Mack... some mets were showing the RPM model, it was the only giving me basically nothing as well.

RPM is useless at this range. Live by the RPM, die by the RPM. 

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Noticed the Columbia, SC office has my forecast for snow then freezing drizzle.   Don't want ice.  How much of a concern to you think freezing rain is for those of us located just on the edge of the snow?

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4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


Wow!!! That is a major increase...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

It was.  I was using the Kuchera Accumulated Snowfall which takes into account the higher ratios.  I imagine that the snow depth chart minus a couple would be more realistic for the ground truth.  Here is the snow depth map.

snod.us_ma.png

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By the way, the ensemble mean for both the GFS and EURO look very similar except for NW NC (mountains and foothills).  The GEFS is higher in those areas 3-5, where the EPS is 2-3.  It will be interesting to see which one is right.  I would tend to favor the look of the GFS when compared to previous storms.

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Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3".

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Snowfall forecast from WRAL - in the article Elizabeth Gardner references "some computer models that are holding out". Does anyone know which models are still in the air for the RDU area?

16401908-1483613477-646x485.jpg

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