Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 47 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: The NAM went a long way towards the GFS, it low has 1-3" in the ATL area. Nam has it cold enough for either all snow, or mostly snow/mix in gainesville potentially as early as 09z and 12z friday per soundings. (which is where i'll go if it doesn't look as good here). the 12z rgem looks juicier than the nam at 48 hours. Some of the models have been showing precip streaking out ahead in far north ga friday so something to watch out for if you are in rome, gainesville, etc. Temp wise it certainly is a lot more promising there than here in the lookout bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Does it appear to anyone else that the low is holding back a tad and cold air is filtering in a bit faster...will be interesting to see what the Low and PWAT do here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Lookout said: I haven't had much time to post much lately but i too have been watching this closely. This is my lookout screwzone bubble in full effect. For those that aren't aware, it's when high pressure is northwest of the mountains which initially causes downslope flow and warming ahead of the system while at the same time causes an area of convergence (northeast winds over the upstate and northwest winds over ga) in the upper savannah river valley in the low levels and sometimes even as high as 850mb...which causes this area to be the very last place to get low level cold air advection. It can be absolutely maddening and can seriously screw this area...and it's happened a number of times. Some of my most painful memories of screw jobs involve heavy rain at 35 or 36 degrees while it was snowing to the east, north, and west..and even southwest...and a bubble of warm air up to 850mb sitting over me that never moved or was overcame. The good news is that the models do eventually evaporate it (which those other events the models never did and they were right) and that wetbulb temps are just low enough off the surface that precip falling into it should allow a changeover even though temps/dewpoints at the surface are pretty high...but should drop to 32/33 after a while. But the bad news totals are likely to be impacted because of this. Likewise any additional warming would really hurt/delay any changeover. In order to avoid this, this area needs to have more high pressure to the northeast and northeast low level flow sooner ahead of the system or a stronger push of cold air from the northwest tomorrow/tomorrow night. Thanks for the explanation Lookout! The ScrewZone bubble you speak of also likes to park it's ugly rear over our area in far Northwestern SC and has happened numerous of times over the years. Our area normally don't do to good when the cold air is bleeding into the system while it is happening versus the cold air being in place to begin with before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: The northern stream has been trending west since yesterday which is increasing the possibility of a phase. It that at 1010 L pressure on the RGEM in the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Thanks for the explanation Lookout! The ScrewZone bubble you speak of also likes to park it's ugly rear over our area in far Northwestern SC and has happened numerous of times over the years. Our area normally don't do to good when the cold air is bleeding into the system while it is happening versus the cold air being in place to begin with before it happens. yeah..i hate situations like this...very often they don't work out for us in northeast ga (along and east of a homer to athens line) and parts of the upstate. It's always much better to have established cold air in place before hand because as much as the mountains help us with cad, they screw us in situations like this hard. btw fwiw...the french model has been showing early precip arrival too. here is the 06z run valid 18z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM at 48 looks like it would go boom way more than the NAM. Looks a little colder than the NAM as well (at least in NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Any GFS pbp? It's rolling out now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS at 48- vort max a tad slower, stronger, more positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Very little diff on GFS out to 51. It doesn't look like it's going to be an amped up run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Comparing the NAM at 45 to the GFS, the NAM is definitely stronger with the s/w over the intermountain west region. We will see how it translates down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Very little diff on GFS out to 51. It doesn't look like it's going to be an amped up run It might even be a smidge weaker then the 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 At 57-60, light snow N LA, N 1/2 of Bama into ATL, W and NW SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 any thoughts of which model will win out, Euro or GFS, does Euro cave to the GFS or vice versa, or a blend, just wandering what the experts think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: It might even be a smidge weaker then the 6z... Pack, I don't buy this GFS solution here. Everything else is more amped and the NAM wasn't even as amped as it usually was, but yet shows good precip making it into VA and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 To 54. Not like the Euro- colder here, more pos tilt to the short wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Pack, I don't buy this GFS solution here. Everything else is more amped and the NAM wasn't even as amped as it usually was, but yet shows good precip making it into VA and NC. Franklin and I have had these arguments about the Euro v/s GFS it seems like every winter event. In the end the Euro is usually a little to amped (just ask anyone from the NY forum what they think) and the GFS is a little to progressive. Ultimately a blend...but wouldn't blend things until tomorrows 12z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 63-66 it has a nice precip area in Lookout's area into the W upstate....should be snow, warm bubble aside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Good run so far for ATL into the upstate...maybe very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Here's the difference in low pressures. Only a couple hundred miles difference in the Gulf lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: At 57-60, light snow N LA, N 1/2 of Bama into ATL, W and NW SC Sorry for the IMBY questions, but does it just skip over MS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z GFS v/s 0z Euro....darn close at 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks good for ATL across roughly N half of SC toward New Bern area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z GFS is coming in slightly colder for the midlands of South Carolina, and a more tight rain/snow line with less of a transitional area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Looks good for ATL across roughly N half of SC toward New Bern area Maximum precip right over Burrel2's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Looks good for ATL across roughly N half of SC toward New Bern area Good bump into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow Wisher said: Sorry for the IMBY questions, but does it just skip over MS??? ha, it has a 12-18 hour period of light snow there in N and C MS....nothing bursts heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z at 72hrs precip line follows TN and VA border completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like the Low pressure strengthened a bit more coming up the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Some nice changes on the GFS.... Taller ridge and deeper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 the last 5 runs of the GFS have been extremely consistent with the precip field and SLP placement for the same time frame. We just need the SLP a little closer to the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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