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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

FWIW--- Mack says nothing!!! lol  From- JB 

GEFS: I Have No Idea Why the Western Trough Day 15

I realize there is a lot of sentiment favoring the GEFS but it makes little sense with its own MJO for one and for two it looks nothing like the Canadian or the Euro Ensembles

Its fascinating to see the debate here. The GEFS does not see the trough in the GOA . IN fact Day 16 it has a huge ridge there! and the trough in the rockies giving ammo to the ideas I am hearing about that there is no change coming...........

It doesnt even make sense with its 10mb! 

Very Strange, The Euro looks like what I believe is going to happen, and at the very least we see the Canadian and Euro in very different modes than the US models

Hopefully he is right. As Jon has already mentioned it's the GEFS against all other models. The EPS continues to score above the GEFS. 

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Rough week...

1). Biggest snow bust I have ever had and getting trolled 

2). Laid up in bed with bronchitis/fever. 

3).  Cowboys lose, getting trolled like a bandit. 

4).  GEFS is evaporating our pattern change. 

Will be interesting to see where the EPS goes with this.  Day 15 the PAC low is shifting toward HI, it has 3 areas of low heights, one from trop PV, other in Europe and the thirds in the E/SE.  The weeklies did show this too...give or take.  It starts building that PAC low back over the aleutians and drives higher heights over the pole as we get to mid Feb. Hell bent on PNA ridge.   

 

IMG_3957.PNG

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Rough week...

1). Biggest snow bust I have ever had and getting trolled 

I looked this up via NWS archive at Iowa State....on Friday morning (Jan 6), the NWS zone forecast for both CLT and RDU was 4-8 inches of snow/sleet (snow only in CLT forecast).  CLT actual was 1.1, RDU actual was 0.5.  So yeah, that's a big bust. 

Do y'all remember the forecasted amounts in Raleigh for the Dec 2000 storm?  The archive at Iowa State only goes back to 2001.  I know for CLT we were under a winter storm warning for at least 4 inches of snow and didn't see a flake.

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0z gefs folded.


Yep! And look, our friend in the PAC showed up, allowing ridging over AK and the trough to slide east.

UI6zs5h.jpg

Meanwhile the EPS has a MEAN temp anomaly of -8C over TN upper gulf states day 12. Wow.
x5SdoaGl.jpg
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Rough week...

1). Biggest snow bust I have ever had and getting trolled 

2). Laid up in bed with bronchitis/fever. 

3).  Cowboys lose, getting trolled like a bandit. 

4).  GEFS is evaporating our pattern change. 

Will be interesting to see where the EPS goes with this.  Day 15 the PAC low is shifting toward HI, it has 3 areas of low heights, one from trop PV, other in Europe and the thirds in the E/SE.  The weeklies did show this too...give or take.  It starts building that PAC low back over the aleutians and drives higher heights over the pole as we get to mid Feb. Hell bent on PNA ridge.   

 

IMG_3957.PNG

At least you can get rid of #4

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

6z GFS looks horrible. Might get some below freezing (nighttime) temps at day 12, but even that will be close. Weak CAD events may be the only thing that keeps my fruit trees from flowering too early.

You must be looking at an old run? The new 6z run of the GFS shows 850's going below 0c from hour 264 through the rest of the run. Looks pretty good to me.

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8 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Grit, I want to say that 3AM update on the night before had us at 10-14"

Yeah man, Raleigh was looking at a foot with locally higher amounts.  I remember Fishel showing his map with 15+ inches.

I lived in Cary.  We had high clouds and a few flakes.  Raleigh ended up with somewhere around an inch.  That one was a disaster.  Most assuredly the biggest negative bust I've ever experienced.  That storm blew up just a little too late.

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18 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

You must be looking at an old run? The new 6z run of the GFS shows 850's going below 0c from hour 264 through the rest of the run. Looks pretty good to me.

Yeah I just looked at it also and it not a bad run. A wset ridge, it's not perfect but it's way out in LA la range so unless we take that verbatim then it's a start. Troughing in the east. 

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Larry Cosgrove added 4 new photos.

1 hr · 

A view of Himawari 8 satellite imagery over the Orient and western Pacific Ocean shows us one potential catalyst for the end of the emergent January Thaw in North America. Note that tropical forcing is strongly linked to a a broad storm complex lying between Japan and the Aleutian Islands. This stream of moisture and energy should enhance deepening of the gyre, which in turn will start to pump up 500MB heights through the western third of the U.S. and Canada. With perhaps three disturbances leading the change, much of the lower 48 states turns colder between Jan 26-30.

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57 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

You must be looking at an old run? The new 6z run of the GFS shows 850's going below 0c from hour 264 through the rest of the run. Looks pretty good to me.

True but surface temps are not great. Most real cold air stay locked up way to the north. We would need a perfect setup; but higher elevations would have an easer time.

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