Brick Tamland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Euro isn't backing down. Looks like a little ice, ice, baby is possible for some folks Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Euro isn't backing down. Looks like a little ice, ice, baby is possible for some folks Monday night into Tuesday. What areaSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Euro isn't backing down. Looks like a little ice, ice, baby is possible for some folks Monday night into Tuesday. What areaSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 A cold rain thread ! He is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Euro and NAM both showing conditions favorable for potential icing in central NC. Temps are borderline, but with the amount of precip they are showing, it could be a big deal if the temps stay low enough as shown. GFS doesn't have the precip like the other two, but the temps are actually colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: A cold rain thread ! He is awesome! Where is Cold Rain when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 NAM on board and similar to Euro except wetter to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Euro and NAM still on board. Really think this could cause problems around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 00z Euro says no. Moisture way east, cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 6z NAM continues to show the ice potential; particularly for the Triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12z NAM shifted the precip eastward, it now provides a chance for freezing rain for SE and east NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Can someone explain to me what process is going on to keep that little area of East nc below freezing? Also im confused as to why the nam has winter precip all the way to the coast... 850s and surface temps are above freezing... is it rate driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 ^ Evap cooling where the precip is falling. That NAM snow map algo thinks freezing rain is snow, hence the accumulation. Also, you're showing total 84 hour accumulation, along with a snapshot of temps at hour 57. Maybe there are other time periods where the temps toward the coast drop to or below freezing, which would explain why the model has accumulations there. Unfortunately, the NAM is now correcting east with the precip, like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Evap cooling where the precip is falling. That NAM snow map algo thinks freezing rain is snow, hence the accumulation. Unfortunately, the NAM is now correcting east with the precip, like the Euro. Well I am in Greenville sooo.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Well I am in Greenville sooo.... lol Haha, well then, you'll probably get more snow than Raleigh this year in that case. Also, I edited my post above and added a middle paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Haha, well then, you'll probably get more snow than Raleigh this year in that case. Also, I edited my post above and added a middle paragraph. I don't know about that I sat at 33 and drizzle all night lol Yeah I went back through and checked and this is as far as the 32 line progresses. Must be some freezing temps too small to outline in blue or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: I don't know about that I sat at 33 and drizzle all night lol Yeah I went back through and checked and this is as far as the 32 line progresses. Must be some freezing temps too small to outline in blue or something. Man I don't know then. I'd chalk it up to what you said or the fact that the snow output algo sucks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 So, Powerstroke just needs to keep a salt shaker handy for this big event, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Of course the Euro doesn't have anything here now while the GFS starts trending NW with the precip. NAM looks okay but it's the NAM this far out, so who knows. Still have no idea what will really happen yet with the back and forth and flip flopping. We saw overnight it doesn't take much ice to cause problems on the roads, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 31 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Of course the Euro doesn't have anything here now while the GFS starts trending NW with the precip. NAM looks okay but it's the NAM this far out, so who knows. Still have no idea what will really happen yet with the back and forth and flip flopping. We saw overnight it doesn't take much ice to cause problems on the roads, though. U are correct about last nights roads but this system is following a day where temps may well hit 78-80 also temps will be just at 32 and precip will be heavier so a ton will run off. I doubt roads will be a major issue even if the nam's .38 of zr falls just southwest of Pitt county. Bridges will be bad though and you will have your typical isolated rough spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 18z NAM has shifted back westward some with the wintery precip. Basically shows ice (six hour period) for the Triangle area eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 The antecedent temperatures of 70+ make this completely different than this morning's event. That asphalt will be baking tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The antecedent temperatures of 70+ make this completely different than this morning's event. That asphalt will be baking tomorrow. Totally agree, but just the idea that we could be seeing some ice after a 70 degree day is interesting. Strange pattern we're in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 57 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Totally agree, but just the idea that we could be seeing some ice after a 70 degree day is interesting. Strange pattern we're in... Try getting close to .50 of ice 2 days after being near 80 back on Feb 18 1989. That storm dropped 8-12 inches of sleet and snow north of GSO and RAH in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: The antecedent temperatures of 70+ make this completely different than this morning's event. That asphalt will be baking tomorrow. Ground temps, FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 The thing is, this event is gonna be marginal even if everything goes well. I'm in Chapel Hill right now, and I see no reason to get excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 The thing I'm interested to see is how the cold air entrenches. Today's event shows that the cold dense air can hang around longer than expected and is often under analyzed by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Pretty interesting HWO out of MHX, this is rather bullish for them.....it gonna be 75 early tomorrow afternoon..... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 406 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 NCZ029-044>046-079-080-182115- MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT- 406 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN COULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...AS TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Never go full retard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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