ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is that you avg closer to 70. 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It's too bad the town keeps lousy records. We do have a retired met in town who I'm going to email about averages. 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That seems like a better number for that area. I know it is in a valley, but they get the latitude going for them My guess would be somewhere in the 61-66" range. Ashfield, MA is (or was) a high quality coop not far to their southwest and averaged 77" but at an elevation of near 1300 feet. If you apply the "1 inch per 100 feet of elevation" rule that does well in the interior plus a little orographic adjustment, the river valley up there should be in the low to mid 60s. They do retain snow quite well though...esp in a CAD/cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, radarman said: I'll take the under on 70" avg up there. Same....see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I figure they have latitude and shouldn't be far off from ORH. They may not do as well in synoptic, but get a lot of scraps from LE and systems like today. Either way, 60 would likely be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Pretty chilly shot coming in after Christmas, especially CNE and NNE. Seems like it sets up for a little ice. That cold shot seems to be slowly trending a bit more impressive with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I figure they have latitude and shouldn't be far off from ORH. They may not do as well in synoptic, but get a lot of scraps from LE and systems like today. Either way, 60 would likely be too low. They have latitude, but they are still in the valley at low elevation...they def get punished in regular coastals from orographics off the Monadnocks, though prob not as bad a little further south in the valley. They don't get nearly as many LES scraps as a place like the east slope (though they do get some...but I would be shocked if it added up to more than 3 or 4 inches on average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty chilly shot coming in after Christmas, especially CNE and NNE. Seems like it sets up for a little ice. That cold shot seems to be slowly trending a bit more impressive with time. Bring it on, Build up the ice on all the bodies of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 EPO gone wild again on GEFS just after New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 just keeps getting better every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They have latitude, but they are still in the valley at low elevation...they def get punished in regular coastals from orographics off the Monadnocks, though prob not as bad a little further south in the valley. They don't get nearly as many LES scraps as a place like the east slope (though they do get some...but I would be shocked if it added up to more than 3 or 4 inches on average). It's too bad there isn't a decent proxy around. They CAD like nobody else, which is a great asset to a lower el spot for sure. If you got a low spot in that region....he picked a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Pacificly delicious January en route- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'm thinking January is going to deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 It wouldn't take much to have a snowy SWFE on the 29. Still has work to do in SNE, but there us a decent airmass prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It wouldn't take much to have a snowy SWFE on the 29. Still has work to do in SNE, but there us a decent airmass prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I could pull off 4" to finish the month...I'd consider it a big win. Low chance though I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 So it sounds like nothing on the table thru year end ? Unless somehow the 29th improves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess would be somewhere in the 61-66" range. Ashfield, MA is (or was) a high quality coop not far to their southwest and averaged 77" but at an elevation of near 1300 feet. If you apply the "1 inch per 100 feet of elevation" rule that does well in the interior plus a little orographic adjustment, the river valley up there should be in the low to mid 60s. They do retain snow quite well though...esp in a CAD/cutter pattern. 1"/100' seems pretty conservative if you are talking seasonal avgs at least around here comparing the valley to the east slope (Ashfield). March alone usually provides a couple torched BL events that do substantially better with elevation... throw in CAA events, remnant streamers, orographic enhancement on easterly flow with coastals... I think you'd find it to be more like 2"/100' locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So it sounds like nothing on the table thru year end ? Unless somehow the 29th improves Hot January cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, radarman said: 1"/100' seems pretty conservative if you are talking seasonal avgs at least around here comparing the valley to the east slope (Ashfield). March alone usually provides a couple torched BL events that do substantially better with elevation... throw in CAA events, remnant streamers, orographic enhancement on easterly flow with coastals... I think you'd find it to be more like 2"/100' locally. I agree, that's why I said "plus an orographic adjustment" in addition to the 1" per 100 feet. The upper valley there is kind of a wasteland for good snowfall data...the old Turners Falls coop averaged 57", but I think that is prob a bit low looking at their data which doesn't look very pristine. I do agree 70" is def too high though for Greenfield....70 is a big number and none of the surrounding data including the Ashfield coop at 1300 feet would support that number in the bottom of the river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'd like to see that mean flow a little less compressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hot January cancel Damn tough to breathe up there, though. Sorry, just had to do it. Looks good if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree, that's why I said "plus an orographic adjustment" in addition to the 1" per 100 feet. Gotcha, sorry I missed the bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd like to see that mean flow a little less compressed We compress in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 That post xmas cold shot was robust in clown range, got muted, now going back the earliest ideas. That's why I doubted this milder period erases the negative December departures and I still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I figure they have latitude and shouldn't be far off from ORH. They may not do as well in synoptic, but get a lot of scraps from LE and systems like today. Either way, 60 would likely be too low. I have noticed that during coastals if the Monads are getting those trailing feeder bands we tend to get spillover. You are right about the narrow valley though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We compress in this pattern. Any large event would need to avail itself of a timely PNA flex, which maybe tough to come by. Sucession of mod events more likely, which is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd like to see that mean flow a little less compressed Just very unlikely any big coastals.we nickel and dime all winter to climo totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 With that said, clown range euro looked Miller-Bish. I'd enjoy a nice long duration overrunning event. Those can be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just very unlikely any big coastals.we nickel and dime all winter to climo totals Most likely. Late season best bet for biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: With that said, clown range euro looked Miller-Bish. I'd enjoy a nice long duration overrunning event. Those can be interesting. Yes.....any bigger events will likely be of miller B variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hot January cancel Would that be a normal -nao or a east based -nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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