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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is that you avg closer to 70. 

 

28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's too bad the town keeps lousy records.  We do have a retired met in town who I'm going to email about averages. 

 

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That seems like a better number for that area. I know it is in a valley, but they get the latitude going for them

 

My guess would be somewhere in the 61-66" range.

 

Ashfield, MA is (or was) a high quality coop not far to their southwest and averaged 77" but at an elevation of near 1300 feet. If you apply the "1 inch per 100 feet of elevation" rule that does well in the interior plus a little orographic adjustment, the river valley up there should be in the low to mid 60s. They do retain snow quite well though...esp in a CAD/cutter pattern.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I figure they have latitude and shouldn't be far off from ORH. They may not do as well in synoptic, but get a lot of scraps from LE and systems like today. Either way, 60 would likely be too low. 

They have latitude, but they are still in the valley at low elevation...they def get punished in regular coastals from orographics off the Monadnocks, though prob not as bad a little further south in the valley. They don't get nearly as many LES scraps as a place like the east slope (though they do get some...but I would be shocked if it added up to more than 3 or 4 inches on average).

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They have latitude, but they are still in the valley at low elevation...they def get punished in regular coastals from orographics off the Monadnocks, though prob not as bad a little further south in the valley. They don't get nearly as many LES scraps as a place like the east slope (though they do get some...but I would be shocked if it added up to more than 3 or 4 inches on average).

It's too bad there isn't a decent proxy around. They CAD like nobody else, which is a great asset to a lower el spot for sure. If you got a low spot in that region....he picked a good one. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

 

My guess would be somewhere in the 61-66" range.

 

Ashfield, MA is (or was) a high quality coop not far to their southwest and averaged 77" but at an elevation of near 1300 feet. If you apply the "1 inch per 100 feet of elevation" rule that does well in the interior plus a little orographic adjustment, the river valley up there should be in the low to mid 60s. They do retain snow quite well though...esp in a CAD/cutter pattern.

1"/100' seems pretty conservative if you are talking seasonal avgs at least around here comparing the valley to the east slope (Ashfield).  March alone usually provides a couple torched BL events that do substantially better with elevation... throw in CAA events, remnant streamers, orographic enhancement on easterly flow with coastals... I think you'd find it to be more like 2"/100' locally.

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

1"/100' seems pretty conservative if you are talking seasonal avgs at least around here comparing the valley to the east slope (Ashfield).  March alone usually provides a couple torched BL events that do substantially better with elevation... throw in CAA events, remnant streamers, orographic enhancement on easterly flow with coastals... I think you'd find it to be more like 2"/100' locally.

I agree, that's why I said "plus an orographic adjustment" in addition to the 1" per 100 feet.

 

The upper valley there is kind of a wasteland for good snowfall data...the old Turners Falls coop averaged 57", but I think that is prob a bit low looking at their data which doesn't look very pristine. I do agree 70" is def too high though for Greenfield....70 is a big number and none of the surrounding data including the Ashfield coop at 1300 feet would support that number in the bottom of the river valley.

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I figure they have latitude and shouldn't be far off from ORH. They may not do as well in synoptic, but get a lot of scraps from LE and systems like today. Either way, 60 would likely be too low. 

I have noticed that during coastals if the Monads are getting those trailing feeder bands we tend to get spillover.  You are right about the narrow valley though. 

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