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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations


ORH_wxman

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When you get home. Just would like to see it 

Just kidding, by the way about work. I know you work hard. . Yea if I can, I don't get home until 7 tonight. Looking forward to the time change in a couple of weeks, tough getting anything done outside Mon to Thursday, in at dark out at dark

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20 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

A couple points: a) there is a time lag of approximately 6-8 days noted in the literature; B) 8 propagating into 1 is more propitious than 7-8; c) model data will likely correct and trend for the last week of the month due to MJO / strat constructive interference. With respect to the time lag, note that the peak of the blowtorch will come about 8 days subsequent to the greatest amplitude of p7 which is very warm signal. The p8/1 effects should begin to project more strongly by the 24th and beyond. This coupled with a very likely second major displacement event in the stratosphere, well advertised by the precursors, could set the stage for a period of favorability from the end of Feb into Mar. Some data is already beginning to detect the Pac /EPO domain alterations with increasing geopotential heights.  

Great answer!!!  This not only answered my question but several other follow up questions I had

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Here's an ABSOLUTE Shocker as I got back to my winter data on my home computer since returning from LA:  

 

My Last 6 December's have averaged 6".  A measly 6 bleeping Inches.  

My Last 5 February's??  33"!!  I'm averaging almost 3 feet per February with a Low of 20" last year.  

 

Are winter's just starting later now?  

 

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16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Next week's torch looks pretty epic on the GFS and Euro. 

Really?  We don't appear to top 35 on the GFS and down there you seem to be around 50 on Wed, 60 on Thurs and mid 40's on Friday.  Warm yes but epic? What am I missing?  (haven't looked Euro yet)

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20 minutes ago, klw said:

Really?  We don't appear to top 35 on the GFS and down there you seem to be around 50 on Wed, 60 on Thurs and mid 40's on Friday.  Warm yes but epic? What am I missing?  (haven't looked Euro yet)

Down here it's quite warm. Days of 50s... GFS even pops some mid 60s.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You should look at a model.

Um I did. The ensembles look much more muted than a 6z Gfs op run. In fact the Gfs shows a great example of how we'd backdoor. It's a perfect Tip setup. Op run showing 5 days of 60's and folks scrambling to stores for sunscreen and tee times, only to have one mild day ahead of a door, cursing the rip and readers . Not saying it's gonna be cold.. it will be AN, but yeah, I'll take the under of a week of 50's and 60's in SNE in Feb lol

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Um I did. The ensembles look much more muted than a 6z Gfs op run. In fact the Gfs shows a great example of how we'd backdoor. It's a perfect Tip setup. Op run showing 5 days of 60's and folks scrambling to stores for sunscreen and tee times, only to have one mild day ahead of a door, cursing the rip and readers . Not saying it's gonna be cold.. it will be AN, but yeah, I'll take the under of a week of 50's and 60's in SNE in Feb lol

Bookmarking this post. Will revisit in a week or so. 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Um I did. The ensembles look much more muted than a 6z Gfs op run. In fact the Gfs shows a great example of how we'd backdoor. It's a perfect Tip setup. Op run showing 5 days of 60's and folks scrambling to stores for sunscreen and tee times, only to have one mild day ahead of a door, cursing the rip and readers . Not saying it's gonna be cold.. it will be AN, but yeah, I'll take the under of a week of 50's and 60's in SNE in Feb lol

A week? Just looks mild overall day and night. Monday will be chilly. Sat, Sun, and then most of next week look mild. Deal with it.

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