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Hoosier

Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 hours ago, Jim Martin said:

The CFS still showing indications of a snow-filled pattern as we enter December.

 

So I saw Raindance (from New Mexico) post this sort of plot in the Mountain West thread. What do you even do with 4 plots of a CFS monthly snow accumulation? Take a guess at the likely storm track for the month? Read every plot literally? What if one run of the CFS has a snowstorm that is halfway thru the US on Dec 31st at 11:59PM?

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6 hours ago, WxMatt21 said:

Ah, shucks. 20" to 2" in one run. Can't say I'm the least bit surprised, although December 5-11 is still a time to watch.

It's the most wonderful (and stressful) time of the year! 

 

Yeah, models have been consistent in showing something around the 7th-9th, although there is still a dearth of cold air.

By the way, you really should ask Hoosier for a Red Tag.

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4 minutes ago, slimjim101 said:

While this may not be what many are looking for here is the latest winter outlook from the Detroit NWS

http://www.weather.gov/dtx/winteroutlook1617

In looking at some past warm fall seasons I can see where this could happen. We shall see.

You just don't want to be on the wrong side of cutterville.

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SE Michigan outlook seems very plausible to me, with no cold to be found. The switch to winter looks to be very short lived as our last cool blast. Western cold is at least a baby step in the right direction.

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12 minutes ago, DAFF said:

SE Michigan outlook seems very plausible to me, with no cold to be found. The switch to winter looks to be very short lived as our last cool blast. Western cold is at least a baby step in the right direction.

Models have been decently consistent on a trough taking hold on the 7th. It looks to scoot east, but a second push looks to be on the door step. This is WAY out though.

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12z GFS still cutting off the southern stream wave in the med range.  12z UKMET just came in and is more progressive and would likely have a nice storm beyond the end of the run.

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6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

It's about that time to rebuy the Eurowx subscription again. In the meantime any snow numbers?

For the entire 12z EURO run?  Over a foot for most of MI

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It's an absolutely raw day out there, 48 degrees, howling south wind at 35mph, and rain coming down sideways, these days really lacked this fall, I actually like it. 

 

Alaska going in the icebox this weekend, coldest spot forecasted to drop to -68. We are making progress, the cold is finally on this side of the globe. 

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10 minutes ago, Chambana said:

It's an absolutely raw day out there, 48 degrees, howling south wind at 35mph, and rain coming down sideways, these days really lacked this fall, I actually like it. 

 

Alaska going in the icebox this weekend, coldest spot forecasted to drop to -68. We are making progress, the cold is finally on this side of the globe. 

Been waiting for the cold to unlock to our side of the globe before I get too excited about model potential snows too. Thread the needle events are fun but a shame for the snow all to melt a few hours afters the system.  Hopefully the snow line starts creeping south over the next week or so to help extend the chances of the cold lasting..

 

 Funny how this day feels like the beginning of fall, but the leaves are long been on the ground and we are awaiting the arrival of winter.

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12Z UKMET is similar to the Euro with the progressiveness of the trough. It's a bit further to the west though. The surface low ends up on the far west side of southern MI at 168.

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Euro looking consistent at least for now. GFS has been decently consistent with the 240 hour storm, showing some sort of storm for several days now. After we all suffered from a zZz fall pattern, our early winter pattern looks to be interesting.

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29 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

12Z UKMET is similar to the Euro with the progressiveness of the trough. It's a bit further to the west though. The surface low ends up on the far west side of southern MI at 168.

Where do you get the UKMET beyond 144 hours?

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Dan Leonard a meteorologist out of Boston tweeted out an hour ago that the coldest December pattern since 2013 is taking shape, obviously it's not saying  much considering December has been blowtorch since then. 

 

Euro has a 982 low in the sub in the 12/5 timeframe, and sends the low to the east coast where it bombs at 965 near Nova Scotia.

 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Where do you get the UKMET beyond 144 hours?

 

I think the UKMET only runs out to 168. There is a pretty hard to find hurricane forecast improvement program page that has a few products every 24 hours, but at least it goes to 168 instead of the 144 on the UQAM site.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z GFS lost the system, we will see what comes with the 0Z Suite. 

I assume you're talking about the 240+ hr system from 12z?  We need to get better agreement on next weekend first!

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49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I assume you're talking about the 240+ hr system from 12z?  We need to get better agreement on next weekend first!

Certainly. The GFS/CMC and the UK/ECMWF are in different camps for the beginning of next week. Not sure if the Euro is seeing something the GFS isn't, but it originally had the cut-off low staying down in the SW and since yesterday has now been ejecting that energy out. As with any potential cut-off low, the models tend to struggle, so we definitely need more time.

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