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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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As in previous years, this thread will be for discussion of the pattern and longer range storm threats that are too far out to warrant a separate thread.

Admittedly this thread right now is a bit of a placeholder as most of us aren't on the verge of descending into true winter, but there are a lot of model signals pointing toward some fun in December.  In the nearer term, there looks to be a threat for some system snow in parts of the Lakes around midweek.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

And the 12z Nov. 19 GFS should provide some interesting weather in the 288/300 hr. range come Dec. 1 if model runs hold this far out in fantasy land.  884 mb low over Twin Cities should provide all sorts of fun from winter to svr with a powerful jet in place.

I might evacuate for an 884 mb low. :P

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Right now I'm thinking chances are probably better for most of us at the end of the 1st week in December and going forward.  The big system on the 28-29th likely will leave some confluence or a system that tries to follow would get sheared out.  The trailing system could certainly lay out a small, light swath of snow towards the Southern Midwest but I wouldn't count on it.  

Most of us in the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley look much better around the 7th-9th of December going forward.  

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Who knows if this will hold but the trend right now is toward a more intense secondary/frontal wave riding up from the south around the 29th-30th after the initial system ejects into the upper Midwest. Cold air generally lags behind though so most of the precip is rain.

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