BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Pretty high confidence in CIPS analogs of below normal weather in long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Based on 500 mb, I think the 00z GFS may make a small incremental improvement for midweek (key words). Probably still won't amount to much verbatim. Yep. 18z was slightly better than 12z and 00z is slightly better than 18z. Have a ways to go to get to something significant but hey, still plenty of time for further improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 baby steps... thats about the progress of improvement at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 And the GEM also has a system back.. baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 This reply is more looking back at the fall season as a while but in a way looking ahead as well. I already stated that this November was the 4th warmest here in Grand Rapids. But I also see that this past fall has now taken over as the 2nd warmest fall here in west Michigan as well. http://www.weather.g...rr/news20161202 The big item of note on that is while a small sample size the past the very mild fall season have led to a mild (for the most part) winters after them. For that reason, I am not 100% sure this will be a cold and snowy winter or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Ejecting southern stream wave early week could make for an interesting precip type forecast on the northwest edge. Still keeping an eye on it here but precip type could be complicated by onshore flow off of a southern Lake Michigan that still in the mid to upper 40s... assuming precip makes it this far northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Looking past midweek, the operationals continue to model a clipper around day 8 with an accompanying reinforcing shot of cold air. This may be the opportunity for those who don't benefit from the coming week's storms to kick off winter with possibly a spread the wealth snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Looking past midweek, the operationals continue to model a clipper around day 8 with an accompanying reinforcing shot of cold air. This may be the opportunity for those who don't benefit from the coming week's storms to kick off winter with possibly a spread the wealth snow. CMC, GFS, and Euro all showing it as well. December is already better than the entirety of fall. Ensembles continue to show BN temps for almost the entire period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 NAM has been hellbent on the Tuesday system tracking farther northwest ever since it got into the 84 hour window. It's too far out to trust and it has limited model support but with the wave of interest still pretty far south in Baja/Mexico, anything is still on the table. IWX noted how these systems coming out of there often creep northwest and the wave going negative tilt with time would also suggest keeping that possibility on the table. Curious to see if the 00z NAM finally makes a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM has been hellbent on the Tuesday system tracking farther northwest ever since it got into the 84 hour window. It's too far out to trust and it has limited model support but with the wave of interest still pretty far south in Baja/Mexico, anything is still on the table. IWX noted how these systems coming out of there often creep northwest and the wave going negative tilt with time would also suggest keeping that possibility on the table. Curious to see if the 00z NAM finally makes a move. I noticed Sam mentioning that in the afternoon discussion. It wasn't even on my radar with the GFS/Euro depicting a cold rain. If the NAM is on the right track, it could be a significant snow producer. I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I noticed Sam mentioning that in the afternoon discussion. It wasn't even on my radar with the GFS/Euro depicting a cold rain. If the NAM is on the right track, it could be a significant snow producer. I'm not holding my breath. Would be relying on dynamic cooling in a NAM scenario. That is always tricky to pinpoint this far out and who knows if a NAM track even ends up occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 GFS has been showing a storm around the 9th-11th in the sub-forum. What starts off as a Colorado Low eventually becomes a Miller B type storm on the latest GFS. Still alot of time left, but I like the consistency so far. Pattern is ideal for a storm with widespread cold in the region, in addition to the SE ridge. All comes down to timing and the strength of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Pretty big difference between the GFS and ECMWF at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Nice weenie run of the 6z NAM for Tuesday. Column rapidly cools and produces a band of healthy snow in parts of IN/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Looking more and more like the Nina is dead in the water. Very pronounced weakening of the sub-surface cold pool and central eq. Pacific SSTAs over the past couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Will be interesting to see if there are any noticeable thermal adjustments with the Tuesday system after today's snow event. There are multiple unknowns at this point... 1) Exactly how far south and how deep is the snow cover, 2) how much of a meltoff will there be tomorrow, 3) exact track/resultant northwest extent of precip with Tuesday's system. The setup for Tuesday is not really favorable for freezing rain given lack of a strong surface high and marginal temps but I wonder if it could come into play, at least briefly, should the system track far enough north and before enough dynamic cooling may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Will be interesting to see if there are any noticeable thermal adjustments with the Tuesday system after today's snow event. There are multiple unknowns at this point... 1) Exactly how far south and how deep is the snow cover, 2) how much of a meltoff will there be tomorrow, 3) exact track/resultant northwest extent of precip with Tuesday's system. The setup for Tuesday is not really favorable for freezing rain given lack of a strong surface high and marginal temps but I wonder if it could come into play, at least briefly, should the system track far enough north and before enough dynamic cooling may occur. I just got back on here to ask about Tuesday's system changes as a result of what's occurring today. You pretty much summed up my questions. I have a vested interest in this because a slight temperature profile difference can make a world of difference in results in Northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Nice look from CPC. Below average temps and above average precip. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nice look from CPC. Below average temps and above average precip. Precipitation That sure looks like above average temps to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, DaveNay said: That sure looks like above average temps to me... That is from October. click on link didn't paste properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That is from October. click on link didn't paste properly. I didn't even look at the dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long Hard Winter Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 In the Dec. 7/8 thru Dec 10/11 winters. when cold and snow came in the first ten days of December Madison had cold snowy winters. Am hoping with 6 inches of snow today and cold to follow that will be the case this year. Cold predicted in Canada in medium range is going to be hard to dislodge with the low AAM of late.Pacific jet does seem to want to comeback but it stays south and does not run up into Canada as it did in the fall. Cold predicted in NW Canada should keeps northern western US cold though how much of US participates in a cold La Nina Canada not so easy to figure but most should share in the wealth the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Usual caveat about it being long range but wow at the GFS around day 10. The PV pays a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long Hard Winter Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Usual caveat about it being long range but wow at the GFS around day 10. The PV pays a visit. 486 thickness over WI! Rare you see that even once in an entire winter. Cold should hold and Pacific wide open.Lots of snow chances coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Love that energetic (strong upper level flow), zonal flow pattern showing up from 120 hrs on with the 00z suite. You get a shortwave amplify into that and it's a recipe for a whopper and perhaps a progressive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 For the Ohio valley, all of the incoming shortwaves have become much flatter in the 3-10 day range in all modeling. Looking like we may get more rain than snow if the current trends hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z GFS back on with the late weekend/early next week threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 It also gets REALLY cold in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 42 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 12z GFS back on with the late weekend/early next week threat. Good thing that storm doesn't wind up any further or else the warm air would get driven fairly far north. That is typically not a great track for most areas other than the northwest part of the region, but the antecedent cold is pretty decent and it doesn't really have enough time to get fully driven out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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