Hoosier Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: Every year the same people fall for the early shots of cold only to have the rug pulled out. You'd think by now they'd realize it isn't until December before things really settle in, and hell lately even that's a gamble. Yep, December has not been very wintry lately for the most part. We are getting to the time of year where a thread the needle is possible. The day ~10 ECMWF threat has been on multiple runs but GFS has been waffling or having it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 20 minutes ago, Stebo said: Every year the same people fall for the early shots of cold only to have the rug pulled out. You'd think by now they'd realize it isn't until December before things really settle in, and hell lately even that's a gamble. I don't know some of the biggest LES events happen in Late Nov/Early Dec. The largest differential between air aloft and lake temperatures happen in the first few weeks of cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep, December has not been very wintry lately for the most part. We are getting to the time of year where a thread the needle is possible. The day ~10 ECMWF threat has been on multiple runs but GFS has been waffling or having it later. Can you post pics or info about the day 10 threat that won't get you into trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I don't know some of the biggest LES events happen in Late Nov/Early Dec. That isn't sustained cold for the region though, that is a special circumstance for a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, Stebo said: That isn't sustained cold for the region though, that is a special circumstance for a small area. If its cold enough for LES, its cold enough for snow across most of the great lakes. Just need to get the right set-up. Getting sustained cold in Detriot/Chicago/Buffalo is rare in any given winter time period now a days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: bust, looks like another torch setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 The Torch "Setting up"... Here is after the storm. I can't wait for people to be stuck in the house in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If its cold enough for LES, its cold enough for snow across most of the great lakes. Just need to get the right set-up. Getting sustained cold in Detriot/Chicago/Buffalo is rare in any given winter time period now a days. I'm not sure what this means. Didn't you just have your record season a couple years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 after last year, you can tell the weenies are getting desperate early gonna get ugly if we don't see a major in the region by xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 This is the kind of layout we need to get winter kicked off. Yea yea... It's long range. Models have been pretty consistent on ushering in cold after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 that isn't a good winter look for snow in the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: that isn't a good winter look for snow in the lakes It's November 22nd.... Anyhow, troughs = Jonger fun time. It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Absolutely nothing good comes from our current pattern in winter. Besides a lengthy complaint thread and OT banter. We need snowpack laid down to the north.. That's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I'm not worried. November was always forecast to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Can you post pics or info about the day 10 threat that won't get you into trouble? Impossible request (shhh there's no storm!). We've got the #winterweeniepatrolcop in here, remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonger said: It's November 22nd.... Anyhow, troughs = Jonger fun time. It's that simple. Probably best to just ignore ALEK this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: I'm not worried. November was always forecast to be warm. Yep, and most here that were calling for a flip were calling for it around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I will say this though, other than that 06z run of the GFS the models aren't showing snow with this system so all the excitement would be for cold rain at this point. Have to realize you still need a cold source cold enough for snow to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 The operational models (especially the 12z CMC and 12z Euro), are starting to definitely trend colder for Northwest Ohio during the next ten to 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 At this point of the season one would expect at least one hard freeze... To date a few frosty AM windshields and green grass through out the region. The models have been showing a slow transition in the 10 day period with a slight cool down this weekend. To me is all par for the course to date and we should be rejoicing this awesome weather pattern of late. After Nov 15th snow is fair game and is plausible given the right conditions. No sensible, educated weather weenie expect bookend to bookend deep freeze this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Still freezeless here, and at MLI. Looks like Saturday morning we finally achieve the first freeze. That also happens to be the latest freeze date on record at MLI, so looks like we will only tie the record. Was hoping we'd break it since we've made it this far. Weather has been nice, but extremely boring with no dynamic systems to track. I'm all for warm weather in Nov, but at least give us a chance for some storms, or a decent rain system once in awhile. It's been great for farmers at least, since the benign weather gave them an excellent window to get all the harvesting completed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 7 hours ago, DAFF said: At this point of the season one would expect at least one hard freeze... To date a few frosty AM windshields and green grass through out the region. The models have been showing a slow transition in the 10 day period with a slight cool down this weekend. To me is all par for the course to date and we should be rejoicing this awesome weather pattern of late. After Nov 15th snow is fair game and is plausible given the right conditions. No sensible, educated weather weenie expect bookend to bookend deep freeze this early. November is probably one of the most interesting times on the board. It never changes either lol. You have a generous mix of trolling, some falling for every fantasy snow/cold shot, some worried winter will never get here because we arent in a November deepfreeze, and on and on. Winter has never "locked in" in November and it never will. There are usually some decent November cold snaps, but it never locks in. Short term memory hits people too, as before last year, we were on quite a string of cold Novembers, with the Nov 2014 cold snap rivaling only Nov 1880 for its early nature. Contrary to another post I saw, sustained cold DOES hit the southern lakes, most winters in fact. Short term memory again, as the cold snaps we saw in both 2013-14 & 2014-15 were far more severe than we have seen in a HUGE majority of winters since records began. Up next...the cold will hit, and people will worry about snow, as that is typical of November. Last years warm November than BAM a huge thread-the-needle snowstorm is not typical. Usually we have some cold days with November flakes that dont collect and people worry that no snowstorms have hit & we are wasting early cold. Some of our coldest Novembers on record have had just dustings of snow, some of our warmest have had a shovelable snow. The reality for me is...it is mild now, completely expected, and winter is coming. Out of all 12 months, no month has a greater first-of-the-month to last-of-the-month avg temp range than November. We have had some cold winters lately (off-set last year by a super Nino expected mild winter), and a ton of snowy winters lately. October eurasia snowcover was near record-high, and the pattern this winter is looking ripe for a stormy winter. I have absolutely zero worries that winter hasnt set in when average high temps are still 50F+ as far north as central MI/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Nov 8 -- still no freeze. Might not get one for 7+ days which is in record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Hahahaha! I love this quote. My friends and I use it all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Although it still is only November, this is not the type of pattern we want to setup. Especially because it's been so dry over much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Grand Rapids (GRR) still has not had an official reading of 32° or below. But with the current forecasted low in the upper 20’s for Friday night that should end on the 11th if indeed we do get down into the upper 20’s on Friday night this would be the second latest that it has gotten here before the first freeze. The longest is November 14th 1918. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/7/2016 at 10:09 AM, Jonger said: Starting to look more and more likely that a significant storm is going to take place around the 17th. Way too far out to try and pin anything down, but a storm looks to be in the cards and there will be a heavy snow component for someone. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 There will be a storm... It just might not deliver to your backyard... Looks like a Winnipeg situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 17th /= 19th can't wait for weenie to play kick the can all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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