XfireLOW Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 16 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Noticed this as well. Sometimes the NAM does catch shifts like this. I am guessing most on here wouldn't pay attention to the trend of a colorado low type storm shifting 30-40 mile SE with every model run when it is primarily only affecting northern minnesota snow totals. But, this trend is pretty normal I have found for my area. Ironically, for as much bashing of the NAM on this board there is, it seems like the NAM is always 1-2 model runs ahead of other models in picking up on this trend. The trend never seems to reverse either, once it shifts SE it ain't coming back NW.... I can't say I am bummed because I never bought the idea of a huge snowstorm for me. Remembering as late as Monday morning it was a 988mb low slowly moving across Minnesota dumping up to 2 feet of snow over ne ND and nw MN. Now the low is barely below 1000mb as it goes over Iowa toward lake superior, the same areas will be completely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 63 IMBY. Unreal...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Madison and Milwaukee both broke the record high for the day of 69 degrees. this is the 4th record high temp set at Milwaukee this month. If Madison gets above 70(which is the 2pm temp) it will be the warmest temp ever recorded so late in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 The record high for tomorrow at CYXU is 64.0 set in 1941. Looks like we can easily match that, maybe reach the upper 60s if the sun stays out. I'm desperately trying to get all my work done right now so I can actually get outside tomorrow, not often you can wear a t-shirt in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 38 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: The general trend in the models today is an eastward shift in the heavy snow axis. Another interesting aspect is the slowing of the low, allowing more of the precip to fall in the cold sector. The 18z 4k NAM almost goes sub 990 and hangs the low back in SE MN. Heavy snow into W IA and S MN. Not saying the Twin Cities is going to get hit hard, but it's getting interesting. They may need to pull those watches/warnings a bit to the east if the trends continue. Definitely is getting at least mildly interesting. Both NAM 12K and 4K verbatim drop 4-6 on me but that surely is pipedream. Getting optimistic for a slushy inch. Heading up to Nisswa on Sunday which appears to be in line for 12"+. Eagerly awaiting the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 High wind watch issued for lakeshore counties. 55-65 mph gusts along with 3-5" of snow around my neck of the woods. Actually more interested in the wind at this point, however. If the heavier snow continues to creep southeast as it has been, I may head a couple counties over and play. Winter storm watches issued for ONTONAGON-GOGEBIC counties in the western UP. Let the fun begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 With sunset in 45 minutes Chambanas official high will go down as 74, the record of 75 from 1952 lives on, what a kick in the rear. Digging through the numbers this is the warmest November 17th since said record was accomplished in 1952. 2004 topped out at 73. I wonder when people start pressing the panic button on the upcoming winter. The signals certainly are looking great at this point, especially points north (Canada) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 New record set today at MLI of 76. Hit 75 here. Fantastic day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Things are going to rock around here. After a boring Fall, what a beautiful sight. Storm warnings for Superior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Things are going to rock around here. After a boring Fall, what a beautiful sight. Storm warnings for Superior! Pics or it didn't happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 83 at STL today... that's absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 12 minutes ago, Maxim said: 83 at STL today... that's absurd. Broke the record by 3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 First Lake Effect Snow Watches in Effect for south of here. 12+ in most persistant bands. Winter has arrived. Going to go chase this one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 LE Params look very decent downwind of Huron Saturday night into Sunday. The first significant snowfall is likely during that time frame in our area. I'll post some campus pics if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 20 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: LE Params look very decent downwind of Huron Saturday night into Sunday. The first significant snowfall is likely during that time frame in our area. I'll post some campus pics if all goes well. Agreed, posted about this on my Twitter a few days ago. The south end of Lake Huron is nice and warm, above 50° should make for some nice delta T's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 45 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: LE Params look very decent downwind of Huron Saturday night into Sunday. The first significant snowfall is likely during that time frame in our area. I'll post some campus pics if all goes well. Yeah all the ingredients are there, I think the question is which way the winds will set up on Sunday. The GFS is looking the best for us right now, almost the perfect wind direction throughout Sunday, not too much accumulation showing up overall but it's concentrated in the London area. On the NAM the winds are too westerly and it's pushing most of the snow into the Stratford to Minto corridor, but we still get a few inches due to it being more bullish overall. At any rate we're definitely going to get snow and some pretty damn strong winds which is way better than anything I've seen in a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 hours ago, harrisale said: Agreed, posted about this on my Twitter a few days ago. The south end of Lake Huron is nice and warm, above 50° should make for some nice delta T's. I noticed and agree. The main thing will be getting that wind direction to align. If winds back a bit less then the NAM is showing, could be pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Found this graphic on "ClimateCentral's" twitter page, North pole is running a staggering 36 degrees above normal.. this image really puts into perspective the warmth in the US, Canada,Arctic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 60 degrees already. Should make a run at 70 before the party's over around noon. Should be cold enough for snow 7-8hrs later. Big story here will be the quick temp plunge and strong winds. Expecting little if any precip, which is a bit odd considering how dynamic this system is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Chambana said: Found this graphic on "ClimateCentral's" twitter page, North pole is running a staggering 36 degrees above normal.. this image really puts into perspective the warmth in the US, Canada,Arctic I don't think I've seen anomalies like that before... Just wow! First Winter storm warning of the season issued. Going to be a doozy with the snow and wind combo. Might end up seeing some surprise totals in the favored nnw belts by Saturday evening. Fog developed late last night with a northerly wind and it's about as thick as it can get up here, even with a decent breeze. Big flip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 T-storms moving in from the south right now. Lightning off in the distance. Snow by about 2pm with gusts over 40mph. Gonna be a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: First Lake Effect Snow Watches in Effect for south of here. 12+ in most persistant bands. Winter has arrived. Going to go chase this one I think. So it appears the NWS in Western NY and Penn/OH are not adopting the removal of using the Lake Effect Advisories and Warnings? Not that it matters at all but I would of thought there would be a larger amount of consistency with the coordination of the NWS's similar to when they no longer issued the heavy snow warnings /etc. It looks like I may end up with a 3-5" total but not sure how much on the ground as the extended heat during fall has kept the ground pretty warm. We did get a few inches a few weeks ago that held on longer than I would have anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, josh_4184 said: So it appears the NWS in Western NY and Penn/OH are not adopting the removal of using the Lake Effect Advisories and Warnings? Not that it matters at all but I would of thought there would be a larger amount of consistency with the coordination of the NWS's similar to when they no longer issued the heavy snow warnings /etc. It looks like I may end up with a 3-5" total but not sure how much on the ground as the extended heat during fall has kept the ground pretty warm. We did get a few inches a few weeks ago that held on longer than I would have anticipated. I think MQT is going with a WSW because of the snow/wind combo. I wasn't aware they were doing away with the lake headlines. I notice GRR rarely uses and lake product even during pure lake events... and even APX to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Look what I found on 0z NAM text data for YXU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 13 minutes ago, weatherbo said: I think MQT is going with a WSW because of the snow/wind combo. I wasn't aware they were doing away with the lake headlines. I notice GRR rarely uses and lake product even during pure lake events... and even APX to an extent. From what I understood after talking with APX at there open house that all Michigan NWS were doing away with the Lake headlines. The idea was to simplify the winter headlines and to use more recognizable ones such as winter weather advisories and watches and warnings. I believe GRR started with it, then APX followed suit last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, josh_4184 said: From what I understood after talking with APX at there open house that all Michigan NWS were doing away with the Lake headlines. The idea was to simplify the winter headlines and to use more recognizable ones such as winter weather advisories and watches and warnings. I believe GRR started with it, then APX followed suit last year. Not sure why it matters. People understand that LES is spotty and not to assume the storm is over because the band meandered away briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 With one more much above average day to go yet this month the departure here in Grand Rapids is now at +6.9° Right now it is sunny and the temperature here at my house is 64° At GRR the latest reading is 60° and up at Traverse City its 64° For the month here at Grand Rapids we now have had 8 clear days 7 partly cloudy days and only 2 cloudy days. Today should end up as partly cloudy day (maybe clear) No matter how this month ends it will still be above average temperature wise and sunnier than average here in West Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 ORD hit 72 yesterday, missing the record for the date by 2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Had some small hail on the east side of Minneapolis about 45 min ago. Snow moving in rapidly from the west. Snowing pretty good about 60 mi from the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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