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Potential Hermine Impacts/Obs Part 2

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

 

Yep, Hermine looks to end up much more westward than anticipated even 12 hours ago, although impacts should still be minor for NJ/NY, as Hermine is weakening and should be a pretty weak storm during its closest pass to both the NJ shore and LI shore.  On the whole, the models really performed pretty poorly, overall, for most of Hermine's life, except for maybe when it was a TS/Cane in the eastern Gulf and from there to NC - before and after were pretty bad.  Here's the latest track guidance from the NHC...

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

I am wondering if there was some piece of data that wasn't included in the model initializations that caused them to miss the much more easterly track Saturday and Sunday when it really mattered.

That was a pretty big miss for both track, intensity, and storm impact level from the forecasts late last week.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am wondering if there was some piece of data that wasn't included in the model initializations that caused them to miss the much more easterly track Saturday and Sunday when it really mattered.

That was a pretty big miss for both track, intensity, and storm impact level from the forecasts late last week.

 

The Euro was off by more then 500 miles with Hermine's current location.

Performed the worst by far.

Rgem was by far the best as it never waivered, even when every other model did on Saturday. And it had this solution from Friday.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

FWIW, around 8 am, there was a sprinkle in the Bronx. Interestingly enough, it seemed that the wind was somewhat offshore this morning along the Long Island Sound in Larchmont. There was a stiff breeze with some gusts. Leaves and a few small twigs were down, but that's the extent of things in southern Westchester County as far as I saw.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Short term models indicating a SSW movement by later today as Hermine makes a loop over the next 24 hours. Convection really blows up this afternoon to the West of the center so we'll have to see how far West things make it before the Southward motion begins. Both the NAM and HRRR have some development over our region this afternoon.

Meanwhile up here I've gone from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy over the past two hours with a mid-level cloud deck.

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

There has been little change in the structure of Hermine since the
last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system
with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west
of the center.  Buoy data suggests the circulation is slowly
decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 50
kt.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken
during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing
and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the
new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm
force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models.  After that
time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system
moving eastward across the New England States.

Hermine has slowed its forward motion, which is now 270/3.  A slow
and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely
during the next 24 hours.  After that, the cyclone should move
northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system.
The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track
after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF models.

The tropical storm warning for Long island may be discontinued
later today if the winds north of the center continue to decrease.
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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

Last night, watching pseg power outages map,it went from almost 100 at 7pm to over 2000, 2 hours later! Offer half of them were on the north fork, in southold town. 

 

Looking at several stations including once at work and mine at parents house, I saw gusts of 45-50 but,I'm thinking they easily were higher. Trees coming down taking primary wires down all over the place. Police scanner was buzzing all night transformers exploding, house to pole lines arcing.etc was an interesting night

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Pamela

Pamela

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

from where lol... there is barely anything on the radar....

With a 1005 mb Low...tropical, extratropical, or somewhere in the middle... sitting 150 miles or so SE of NYC...in 75 degree bathwater...it would be nearly impossible for it Not to rain...and rain heavily...along the coast.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

The 9/6/2016 12z RGEM:

RGEM0906201612z.jpg

Like all high-resolution models, I've seen the RGEM have issues near the QPF boundary (sometimes too high, other times too low). Considering the other guidance and how Hermine has been evolving, I suspect that when it comes to the immediate NYC area, the modeled QPF is more likely to be too high than too low.

Given all of the guidance, I believe the probability that 10 mm (0.40") or more of precipitation will fall in NYC is very low. A figure of even half that is probably low. Something in the ball park of 0.05" and 0.15" appears most likely.

Of course, I could be wrong, as I believe the RGEM is probably the best short-range model under 24 hours.

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted

the bands are struggling but I will say that when one holds together, even if it is just "heavy sprinkles", the wind picks up considerably.  Seems we just need a minor mechanism to mix some of the gusty winds down.  if we can develop any consistent shower activity I imagine it would become quite raw outside.

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