USCG RS Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Winds down to 65mph Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 they keep doing this slightly stuff each run. eventually they'll get it there. Quote The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly southwestward well, at-least i'll be right with the track. The intensity is a whole other ballgame, but wouldn't be surprised for the NYC area to be waking up to tropical storm force gusts. sleep time. ZzZzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 40mph gusts, while run of the mill in the cold season, would be somewhat noteworthy in September from a tropical cyclone. I think we have a shot at 35-40mph gusts tomorrow. Just gusted to 20mph here; starting to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Gradual weakening is to be anticipated as it's over sub 26C sea surface temperatures now, but due to the anomalous warmth of the water, it's sufficient to essentially permit strength maintenance for a little while. Once it enters the shelf, it'll weaken faster. More importantly, the trajectory is still WNW at 9mph. Interesting situation to track and very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 JFK gusted to 36 at 11 pm. On another note, the n-nnw wind on the periphery of Hermaine has kept temps from falling much in the area (still holding at 79-80) degrees across the city and relative humidities are down in the 40% range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Getting quite breezy here in Mahwah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 24 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: visualize this map, and a track all the way back to NJ...since that's what it'll most likely do There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ. It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC. And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau). I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate. I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC. Just my $0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 That ship is south of long island and still reporting 63 knot / 73-74 mph winds. http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=PBIGEdit : Wind speed and direction have not changed in a few hours according to that report. Im inclined to disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 50 minutes ago, RU848789 said: There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ. It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC. And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau). I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate. I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC. Just my $0.02. The models now have it going near NJ but weak like you said. Still, the models actually had the right idea in the beginning with the low going back to NJ but much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 11pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 0z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ. It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC. And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau). I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate. I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC. Just my $0.02. back up your claims with evidence before posting nonsense. Quote I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me red flag that ur trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 red flag that ur trolling. The poster did. He quoted the NHC. Unfortunately, you haven't. I do like to see your enthusiasm, yet you also need to back up with evidence. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: back up your claims with evidence before posting nonsense. red flag that ur trolling. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/0...l5-bd-long.htmlSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 2 hours ago, USCG RS said: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/0...l5-bd-long.html Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk still moving westward and some bands are trying to get in here later on,perhaps it's last hurrah. quite remarkable how far west hermine has gotten compared to the forecast of curve and back out east,he's still going towards the central jersey coast a.t.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Not sure if I just saw lightning or if it was something else electrical blowing out. Winds picked up a lot from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 We had some minor coastal flooding along the Great South Bay with the early morning high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: We had some minor coastal flooding along the Great South Bay with the early morning high tide. ..Pikes Beach(ocean beach) in westhampton dunes had 'washups' to the dune but no 'washovers'.. moriches bay was similar with minor coastal flooding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, tim said: ..Pikes Beach(ocean beach) in westhampton dunes had 'washups' to the dune but no 'washovers'.. moriches bay was similar with minor coastal flooding.. Coastal interests really caught a break with the wide swing right of the track Saturday and Sunday preventing the greater coastal flooding and stronger winds. It reminded me of the old days of modeling in the 70's and 80's where model misses like this were a common occurrence that you just were used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Models still have her sliding southwest/west southwest today. This wouldn't be that interesting if she wasn't so close to the Gulf Stream. That should--at the very least-- make this more fun to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 2 hours ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: still moving westward and some bands are trying to get in here later on,perhaps it's last hurrah. quite remarkable how far west hermine has gotten compared to the forecast of curve and back out east,he's still going towards the central jersey coast a.t.m. Yep, Hermine looks to end up much more westward than anticipated even 12 hours ago, although impacts should still be minor for NJ/NY, as Hermine is weakening and should be a pretty weak storm during its closest pass to both the NJ shore and LI shore. On the whole, the models really performed pretty poorly, overall, for most of Hermine's life, except for maybe when it was a TS/Cane in the eastern Gulf and from there to NC - before and after were pretty bad. Here's the latest track guidance from the NHC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Had some what you'll call heavy drizzle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 system is mostly void of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 system is mostly void of precipThis is probably a silly question, but couldn't the bands restrengthen from daytime heat?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Breezy and drizzle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Mist and wind here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRJPilot Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: system is mostly void of precip Also that radar is out of range. I'm sure you'll see more precipitation as it moves closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Looks like some convection is going up on the NW side of the storm. Should affect LI today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 The HRRR has squalls reaching NW NJ late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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