Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'd be surprised if we were at record low levels, the warm season so far has been very +NAO/+AO

[lookingnorth]

Maybe Charctic is incorrect, but this is what that source shows: https://imgur.com/sSjMIiT.

[bluewave]

Early split picture showing up in the data. It was a warmer than average May across the Arctic. But not as warm as 2020 was which lead to all the preconditioning that year. June was the coolest in the Arctic over the last decade. Yet the extent is currently in 1st place for lowest in early July. But the area is only 8th lowest.

Area and melt pond fraction are more important this time of year than extent in trying to guess a September low. Unfortunately, the May melt pond data still hasn’t been released. This is what the statistical model uses to forecast a June September low.

If I had to take an early guess, the higher area now than extent could mean that the extent will fall behind the steep 2012 drop which happened back in early August 2012. So it’s possible that the 2012 record low will hold for another year. 

But I want to see the May melt pond fraction first before making a final call. I will update this if the ARCUS SPIN site gets around to posting the model forecasts for September. They have been delayed in their update. 

[roardog]

We really need an almost perfect setup to beat that 2012 record. The cool June and continued strong +AO and cool isn't going to cut it regardless of the May melt pond data IMO.

[ORH_wxman]

On 7/4/2025 at 1:09 PM, roardog said:

We really need an almost perfect setup to beat that 2012 record. The cool June and continued strong +AO and cool isn't going to cut it regardless of the May melt pond data IMO.

I’ve been super busy this summer so forgot to issue a forecast but I’ll run the numbers later this week retroactive to July 1st to see what it would’ve been but just glancing at it, we wouldn’t have predicted a new record low min. 
 

Right now, area is running 8th lowest. Forecast looks pretty favorable for good melt in the coming week so a top 5 melt season is still on the table. We’d need to set a new record for loss from this date though to finish lower than 2012.