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Rjay

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2

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5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like even Larry Cosgrove is going to go down in flames on this month, he always thought February was going to be the coldest and stormiest month of the winter. His weekly newsletters from the last couple of weekends seemed pretty positive on a good February, curious to see what he says in this weekends newsletter. 

 

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2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

 

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LOL.  Poor guy.  As much as I vehemently disagree with his politics, can't understand his cold bias, and find his AGW stance flat-out wrong, I like him on a personal level and really do admire his enthusiasm for the weather.  Not difficult to see that he's a good guy.

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Watching TWC just now, Paul Goodloe and another on air person I don't recognize are doing a segment called 'car wash', apparently talking about whether the weather in select cities is good for car washing.  The song 'Car Wash' is playing, and they are both dancing while doing the segment.  It was probably only three minutes, but felt like 3 hours.  I'm sure that if either is a meteorologist, they were thinking 'this is not what I had in mind.'

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19 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Watching TWC just now, Paul Goodloe and another on air person I don't recognize are doing a segment called 'car wash', apparently talking about whether the weather in select cities is good for car washing.  The song 'Car Wash' is playing, and they are both dancing while doing the segment.  It was probably only three minutes, but felt like 3 hours.  I'm sure that if either is a meteorologist, they were thinking 'this is not what I had in mind.'

Yeah, they do stuff like that sometimes lol.  Personally, I think that TWC tries to gear the content more towards the average watcher.  If they went into great detail, (and I wish they would more often), a lot of people would probably tune out since they just want quick weather updates.  I still like watching, don't get me wrong, and there is definitely lots of great analysis from some mets there.  Dave Schwartz was one of my favorites.

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17 hours ago, Eduardo said:

LOL.  Poor guy.  As much as I vehemently disagree with his politics, can't understand his cold bias, and find his AGW stance flat-out wrong, I like him on a personal level and really do admire his enthusiasm for the weather.  Not difficult to see that he's a good guy.

Seems as if he having another epic failure this year in long range forecasting.

JB only seems do well when you know a storm is coming.

His best days in forecasting are long gone.  Sorta of now just that "guy" in TV weather that the news outlets put on TV when they need a  name.

 

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DT says winter is basically over in his This Week in Weather video. He mentions maybe..maybe some winter weather in mid to late March if the mjo swings around into a more favorable position again but honestly by then who cares. I am really not a big fan of any wintry weather after the first ten days of March unless it is an extreme event i.e Superstorm of 93 or if we have a very cold air mass in place.

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

DT says winter is basically over in his This Week in Weather video. He mentions maybe..maybe some winter weather in mid to late March if the mjo swings around into a more favorable position again but honestly by then who cares. I am really not a big fan of any wintry weather after the first ten days of March unless it is an extreme event i.e Superstorm of 93 or if we have a very cold air mass in place.

Yep another early end to winter.   Seems like 2/15 has been the date of the last big snows for a few years.    Big warmth in middle of the country-hard to see how we don't get warm at some point in the next week or so.    Tough winter, the cold could never hit and hold.  The loss of the warm blob of water in the Pacific was a big deal along withe the AO and NAO staying positive much of the winter.   

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep another early end to winter.   Seems like 2/15 has been the date of the last big snows for a few years.    Big warmth in middle of the country-hard to see how we don't get warm at some point in the next week or so.    Tough winter, the cold could never hit and hold.  The loss of the warm blob of water in the Pacific was a big deal along withe the AO and NAO staying positive much of the winter.   

DT has been awful, so what he says expect the opposite. Although philly south it may be the end of winter, but they never really had winter!

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21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep another early end to winter.   Seems like 2/15 has been the date of the last big snows for a few years.    Big warmth in middle of the country-hard to see how we don't get warm at some point in the next week or so.    Tough winter, the cold could never hit and hold.  The loss of the warm blob of water in the Pacific was a big deal along withe the AO and NAO staying positive much of the winter.   

At least we reached average snowfall for the winter (actually 1 more inch to average). Very impressive considering the factors.

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36 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Must be out there in state college for him. I wonder what their ytd snowfall is 

Can't be more than 10 or 12 inches.  I think they did ok in the 2/9 event but that's about it.

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Can't be more than 10 or 12 inches.  I think they did ok in the 2/9 event but that's about it.

Compete nightmare out there the last decade!! JM would know best but I think they had over 100" in 93/94 

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Compete nightmare out there the last decade!! JM would know best but I think they had over 100" in 93/94 

I believe JB said at one point that they have not jackpotted in a storm since then

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I believe JB said at one point that they have not jackpotted in a storm since then

I can speak firsthand that it's a miserable place for snow.  Quintessential nickle and dime.

There is literally snow in the air for weeks at a time (the dying lakes squalls that get squeezed out over the big ridge to the west) that never accumulates.

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17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Compete nightmare out there the last decade!! JM would know best but I think they had over 100" in 93/94 

Yep just an incredible winter including 32" from the March 2-3rd storm.  We had at least 1 storm every week from late Dec through March. 95-96 was great too but the snow shut off by early Feb out there.

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7 minutes ago, danstorm said:

I can speak firsthand that it's a miserable place for snow.  Quintessential nickle and dime.

There is literally snow in the air for weeks at a time (the dying lakes squalls that get squeezed out over the big ridge to the west) that never accumulates.

Too far east for Lake Effect and often too far west for the coastal lows.   They need an inland runner to cash in.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They have around 21" So about 50% of normal

surprised 40 inches is their average....would think less given what I stated above.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Too far east for Lake Effect and often too far west for the coastal lows.   They need an inland runner to cash in.

surprised 40 inches is their average....would think less given what I stated above.

Well I know it was but the new averages are probably much lower

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On 2/23/2017 at 0:15 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Compete nightmare out there the last decade!! JM would know best but I think they had over 100" in 93/94 

Believe it or not State College's snow average is in the mid 40s, but since the recent shift to big offshore and late developing coastal storms from NJ on NE, that area's been left high and dry. Clippers usually do okay there, since it's close enough to the Allegheny spine to still get some decent snow before downsloping really shafts the Susquehanna Valley. But transferring Miller B-type systems often do little there since the moisture and lift shifts to the coast, it's often too warm for systems that hit the I-90 corridor hard, lake cutters often just bring a lot of sleet or ZR before rain, and lake effect is usually just flurries other than being very lucky with a long running band (happened a couple of times when I was there with a few inches of surprise snow). In the 1990s, coast hugging miller A's were more common, which are what does bury central PA, but those never happen anymore. March 1993's monster was over 2 feet there, as was a similar storm in March 1994. It was very frustrating being there as a snow weenie, for sure. And I remember having numerous close calls and good setups that ended up producing little. 

One of these years the pattern will shift back to producing again back there, but it's undeniable that there's been a shift away from the types of snowstorms that can hit central PA really hard. 

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JB tosses in the towel:

 He pretty much says it's over outside of a transient cold shot or two.  Says the +++EPO is overwhelming the other good telly's (NAO, WPO AND AO) and promoting the -PNA and that warmth will rule March outside of some come and go cold.

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On 2/4/2017 at 11:17 AM, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, they do stuff like that sometimes lol.  Personally, I think that TWC tries to gear the content more towards the average watcher.  If they went into great detail, (and I wish they would more often), a lot of people would probably tune out since they just want quick weather updates.  I still like watching, don't get me wrong, and there is definitely lots of great analysis from some mets there.  Dave Schwartz was one of my favorites.

What I don't understand is why doesn't the NWS take a stand for a change and call this kind of stuff unprofessional? I liked it when DirecTV took them off the air for their ridiculous primetime programming.

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27 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What I don't understand is why doesn't the NWS take a stand for a change and call this kind of stuff unprofessional? I liked it when DirecTV took them off the air for their ridiculous primetime programming.

Yeah, I mean it depends when you watch as well.  During certain time slots, especially during the winter and severe season, they bring on more experts etc. and show more analysis.

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7 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, I mean it depends when you watch as well.  During certain time slots, especially during the winter and severe season, they bring on more experts etc. and show more analysis.

Yeah, I like their storm coverage much better and WUTV is really nice, except ever since they bought WU they hiked up the prices for third party API by like 4x, so people who want to use the data from the site and save it onto a spreadsheet or use the data on their own site now have to pay a lot more.  Which is disturbing since the data is provided by the NWS for free.

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On 1/29/2017 at 5:09 PM, Rtd208 said:

According to Steve D. "the pattern should remain active and on the cold side until mid February then Spring is on the way". The way this winter has gone and how the models have handled things even in the shorter ranges I am taking everything with a grain of salt. I will laugh if we wind up seeing our biggest snowfall of the winter on March 1st.

Turned out to be correct.

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