eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 18z NAM a bit dryer - I don't see any 6" pockets of rain this time! But still 3" region-wide. The 4K seems to capture that PA/MD cell quite well from 3 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Right moving Supercell. If it stays organized it could head right towards the DC area. geeze the hail is off the scales with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Hail marker on GR2Analyst has reduced on the last few scans. Now showing the more realistic 2 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 That guy has a good view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 356 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHWESTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 356 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADISON... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ORANGE...MADISON...GORDONSVILLE...BRIGHTWOOD...SOMERSET... CRIGLERSVILLE...BANCO...HAYWOOD...RAPIDAN...SHELBY...UNIONVILLE... OAKPARK...MONTPELIER STATION...TWYMANS MILL...MADISON MILLS... MONTFORD...OLD SOMERSET...LAHORE...LOCUST DALE AND WOLFTOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 That guy has a good view I would love and hate to have that view, meaning knowing if the hail size verifies that's huge hail that I wouldn't want destroying my house/car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 It might rain at some point, even here, and someone will (are) see some good storms, but there seems little chance of any flooding or big rain totals that were being predicted / modeled earlier. These storms are not orienting in the direction of travel, and they are moving fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 There goes my hail marker back to 3"...tornado threat aside, someone's roof is getting clobbered in Bath, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 LSR says golf ball sized hail reported in Berkley Springs, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 406 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... EAST CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 406 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CORPORATION OF RANSON...OR OVER CHARLES TOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHARLES TOWN...PURCELLVILLE...RANSON...ROUND HILL... HARPERS FERRY...KEARNEYSVILLE...CORPORATION OF RANSON...BLUEMONT... LOVETTSVILLE...BOLIVAR...SHENANDOAH JUNCTION...HAMILTON... MIDDLEWAY...HILLSBORO...HALLTOWN...NEERSVILLE...MILLVILLE... WATERFORD...SUMMIT POINT AND RIPPON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Looks like the discrete activity is forming right along the warm front. Might keep the twist going on so long as we have sun and destabilization to keep things surface based, then we transition to elevated heavy convection as the sun sets and the vort max moves in from OH. Classic Mid Atlantic severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 411 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 410 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BERKELEY SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF HANCOCK... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS MAY OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MARTINSBURG AROUND 430 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SHADY GROVE...HEDGESVILLE...JONES SPRINGS...VANVILLE...SPOHRS CROSSROADS... TOMAHAWK...BERKELEY...NEW HOPE...ARDEN AND JOHNSONTOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 WVC003-065-162030- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160616T2030Z/ MORGAN WV-BERKELEY WV- 412 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES... AT 411 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS MAY OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: NEW HOPE...JOHNSONS MILL...HIGHLAND RIDGE... BERRYVILLE...SPOHRS CROSSROADS AND SHADY GROVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Would not be surprised if I see just some light showers here. Definitely on the edge and its another world compared to DC and west. 69 and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 My hail marker is down to the 1 inch range now. Charles Town cell looks okay too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 MDC043-WVC003-065-162030- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-160616T2030Z/ WASHINGTON MD-MORGAN WV-BERKELEY WV- 416 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES... AT 416 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BERKELEY SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF HANCOCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. HAIL IS LARGE ENOUGH TO DENT AND DAMAGE VEHICLES. SOME HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HEDGESVILLE...JOHNSONS MILL...SHADY GROVE...JONES SPRINGS... SPRUCE PINE HOLLOW...SHANGHAI...SPOHRS CROSSROADS...TOMAHAWK... NEW HOPE...HIGHLAND RIDGE AND JOHNSONTOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Confirmed tornado just NW of Martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 425 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 WVC003-065-162100- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160616T2100Z/ MORGAN WV-BERKELEY WV- 425 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTIES... AT 423 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTINSBURG... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PEOPLE IN BERKELEY AND MARTINSBURG SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS MAY OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MARTINSBURG AROUND 430 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HEDGESVILLE...JONES SPRINGS...VANVILLE...TOMAHAWK...BERKELEY...ARDEN... JOHNSONTOWN AND MARTINSBURG AIRPORT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Mesoscale Discussion 951 speaks of the discrete cells ALSO OF NOTE...A COUPLE OF DISCRETE TSTMS OVER FAR ERN WV MOVING TOWARDS NRN VA APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED ALONG/NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE AN INCREASED SHORT-TERM LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Confirmed tornado just NW of Martinsburg. Velocity doesn't even look all that impressive right now. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Agreed. Thinking SW with that one. We'll see. Impressive storm. It does seem to have a tiny bit more east component recently - NWS storm track agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The confirmation came from WV State Police, another report of a wall cloud low to the ground near Martinsburg. Tops back up and better hail icon on the storm now. Kenny might be right, it's doing the Potomac Shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Rare for a tornado around here to be on the ground long enough for someone to actually report it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if the TOR gets extended one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The confirmation came from WV State Police, another report of a wall cloud low to the ground near Martinsburg. Tops back up and better hail icon on the storm now. Kenny might be right, it's doing the Potomac Shuffle. I was pretty convinced earlier that it would go south and west of us - I'm not AS sure now. It does seem to have a bit more east push. We'll see. The line looks really nice back west. Would be cool to get a good punch out of that too but I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Martinsburg cell echo tops have come down into the mid to upper 30kft range. Actually seeing higher cell tops right now on the Loudoun cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I was pretty convinced earlier that it would go south and west of us - I'm not AS sure now. It does seem to have a bit more east push. We'll see. The line looks really nice back west. Would be cool to get a good punch out of that too but I have my doubts. Tonight's event looks all rain. Don't see how we get any severe unless something taps the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Ouch time BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 439 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 439 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTINSBURG... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. YOU LIFE IS AT SIGNIFICANT RISK IF OUTDOORS. IN ADDITION TO SOME TREES FALLING INTO HOMES...WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO ROOFS...SHEDS...OPEN GARAGES...AND MOBILE HOMES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...SHEPHERDSTOWN...RANSON...INWOOD... HARPERS FERRY...KEARNEYSVILLE...CORPORATION OF RANSON...BERKELEY... BOLIVAR...SHENANDOAH JUNCTION...MIDDLEWAY...HALLTOWN... PLEASANTVILLE...VANVILLE...MILLVILLE...SUMMIT POINT...RIPPON... WINEBRENNERS CROSS AND ARDEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 80mph wind gusts now noted in the new svr warning. EDIT: Ninja'd by RobotYoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Sounds like another wall cloud report, but it's not low to the ground. Tops have gone down and it looks less "tornado-ey" on radar so the SVR makes sense, but wow at the wind/hail in the text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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