Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Heavy rainfall discussion: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=356&yr=2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Rack up another 90F here. And I see the complex out in WV has already split apart and headed N and S of here. To be fair the main show is the complex about to enter WV from Ohio. If that splits, then we can call it a bust, but it's looking like it's going to propagate robustly and turn into a nice MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Somebody's gonna have to explain to me how 90 / 75 can't sustain a storm. This is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Somebody's gonna have to explain to me how 90 / 75 can't sustain a storm. This is unbelievable. Easy there. This event is just now getting going. The line is still in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 When do we think the line will reach the beltway, I have a grad party to go to from 6-9 (Open house style). Obviously, I will try to go more towards 6pm, but will it even be safe then? The party is in Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 When do we think the line will reach the beltway, I have a grad party to go to from 6-9 (Open house style). Obviously, I will try to go more towards 6pm, but will it even be safe then? The party is in Fairfax. I think the earlier you go, the better off you will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 That's a nice looking supercell in Southern PA about to cross over into MD over the next 90 minutes if it holds together. Radar indicating top around 45k top and some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 That's a nice looking supercell in Southern PA about to cross over into MD over the next 90 minutes if it holds together. Radar indicating top around 45k top and some rotation. Good call BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 305 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 305 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO MILLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... INGLESMITH AND BARNES GAP AROUND 330 PM EDT. WARFORDSBURG AROUND 340 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Decent hail core showing up in the Bedford County PA cell... should move into MD shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Watch extends down to here, I am in the southermost county currently........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 LWX sending out a serious STW for that sup... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 311 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 311 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO MILLS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEDFORD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CUMBERLAND...HANCOCK...PAW PAW...GREENWOOD... WILSON-CONOCOCHEAGUE...BERKELEY SPRINGS...GREAT CACAPON... CLEAR SPRING...CAPON BRIDGE...HEDGESVILLE...GREEN SPRING... FLINTSTONE...PECKTONVILLE...OLDTOWN...BIG SPRING...BIG POOL... LITTLE ORLEANS...LEVELS...GAINESBORO AND GLENGARY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Looks like play is about to be suspended at the US Open again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Hopefully the little cell in the panhandle of WV doesn't stabilizing the air ahead of the big cell too much. Looks like an intense one for now. If it can stay discrete and not form into a line it could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Good call BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 305 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 305 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO MILLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... INGLESMITH AND BARNES GAP AROUND 330 PM EDT. WARFORDSBURG AROUND 340 PM EDT. Thanks Looks like the couplet is strengthening on the last few scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 That cell in extreme southern PA is all by itself. The 18z HRRR has it reaching DC metro around 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Interesting that LWX's warning for that sup coming out of PA is for the next hour... it doesn't expire until 4:30... don't usually see that much lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Big time hail core appearing on the sup about to enter western Washington County MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 335 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 PAC009-057-161945- /O.CON.KCTP.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160616T1945Z/ FULTON PA-BEDFORD PA- 335 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES... AT 334 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BARNES GAP...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Big time hail core appearing on the sup about to enter western Washington County MD 75dbz echos showing up now and a bit of a hook on the latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 338 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 337 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BARNES GAP...OR 10 MILES WEST OF HANCOCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS MAY OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... HANCOCK AROUND 350 PM EDT. BERKELEY SPRINGS AROUND 355 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Rather large hail producer. Close to 80 dbz returns at 25kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 What is the freezing level right now? GRAnalyst is spitting out a hail marker over 4 inches - it's not going to be that high obviously. Wonder if it'll hold intensity into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 What is the freezing level right now? GRAnalyst is spitting out a hail marker over 4 inches - it's not going to be that high obviously. Wonder if it'll hold intensity into the area. Um... it might be SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 341 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 MDC001-043-VAC069-WVC003-027-065-162030- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-160616T2030Z/ ALLEGANY MD-WASHINGTON MD-FREDERICK VA-MORGAN WV-BERKELEY WV- HAMPSHIRE WV- 341 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... AT 341 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER INGLESMITH...OR 11 MILES WEST OF HANCOCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. HAIL IS LARGE ENOUGH TO DENT AND DAMAGE VEHICLES. SOME HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND WINDOWS IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HANCOCK...PAW PAW...GREENWOOD...WILSON-CONOCOCHEAGUE... BERKELEY SPRINGS...GREAT CACAPON...CLEAR SPRING...HEDGESVILLE... PECKTONVILLE...BIG SPRING...BIG POOL...LITTLE ORLEANS...GAINESBORO... CHERRY RUN...GLENGARY...SPRUCE PINE HOLLOW...NEW HOPE... FOREST PARK...BERRYVILLE AND FISHERS BRIDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Another cell behind it near Central City, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Um... it might be That says two inches, Yoda - I meant it's not going to get to 4 inch hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Another cell behind it near Central City, PA CTP warning says its a sup as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 My gut feeling would be that the TOR warned cell would go mostly south of the Potomac given it's current trajectory...maybe ending up somewhere int he Warrenton/Manassas area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Per the mesoanalysis, the tornado-warned cell is in an area of higher helicity. If the analysis is correct, the area into which it is moving is not as favorable for persistent low-level rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 My gut feeling would be that the TOR warned cell would go mostly south of the Potomac given it's current trajectory...maybe ending up somewhere int he Warrenton/Manassas area. Right moving Supercell. If it stays organized it could head right towards the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Right moving Supercell. If it stays organized it could head right towards the DC area. The few times I've seen storms on a similar path like this they have ended up south and/or west of the area. Also as highrisk just said - the area it's in right now is in a higher helicity area - it may cycle down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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