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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N


bluewave

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's all fantasy at this juncture-look at the 3 day forecast bust with Hermine let alone a 7-10 day one here.   Who knows if the storm even develops at this point?

I think this has a shot at stronger development mainly due to the Caribbean finally becoming less hostile in recent days than it has been most of the season.

This is the first above normal Caribbean instability since Hurricane Earl in early August in the Western Caribbean.

ts_al_car_THDV.gif

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

That would be like a Bob. The west side would have all the rain and essentially a nasty nor'easter, the really destructive stuff would be for eastern New England. 

That's what we need on the island. A good 6"+ soaker. Winds would be offshore so minimal coastal impacts. Maybe 40-60mph gusts so minimal damage on that side as well

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Future Matthew will be heading north right where Sandy did almost four years ago and could be just as strong by then if not stronger. 

However the chance of a hit like the 18z gfs shows is extremely slim, it's far more likely to impact Florida or go OTS than do that. 

Long nights ahead

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That West Atlantic ridge definitely has to be watched. If Matthew strengthens over the Caribbean and is blocked from escaping by that ridge, a trough could dig down and grab/phase with it like Sandy did. That's obviously quite unlikely, but if that ridge strengthens and especially if it can build into a blocking ridge over Nova Scotia like Sandy's setup had, Matthew would have no choice but to turn back NW. 

More likely is the ridge being weaker and it being able to escape, or it going further west in the Caribbean and becoming a Gulf storm and hitting FL. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Future Matthew will be heading north right where Sandy did almost four years ago and could be just as strong by then if not stronger. 

However the chance of a hit like the 18z gfs shows is extremely slim, it's far more likely to impact Florida or go OTS than do that. 

Sandy was 940mb, nothing shows that with this

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