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Damage In Tolland

April Pattern Disco -2016

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Conflicting signs this morning. The first week or so looks chilly, but that could be centered over the Lakes and midwest and struggle to reach the east coast. Looks like a massive cutter around April 1, with big severe outbreak for New England, and then maybe a few days of calling behind it.

 

Gibbs says most of the cold stays to our west and there's no risk of snow with -PNA pattern.

 

Other circles says ridging in Greenland and it screams cold in Se Canada and backdoors..which i don't think anyone here wants. 

 

Hopefully things become clearer over the coming days. Either way..after about the 10th long range stuff signaling big warmth.

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Conflicting signs this morning. The first week or so looks chilly, but that could be centered over the Lakes and midwest and struggle to reach the east coast. Looks like a massive cutter around April 1, with big severe outbreak for New England, and then maybe a few days of calling behind it.

 

Gibbs says most of the cold stays to our west and there's no risk of snow with -PNA pattern.

 

Other circles says ridging in Greenland and it screams cold in Se Canada and backdoors..which i don't think anyone here wants. 

 

Hopefully things become clearer over the coming days. Either way..after about the 10th long range stuff signaling big warmth.

At least we have a choice regarding HOW we would like spring to suck.

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Don't know where Gibbs is getting his info on the PNA? JB in his morning video says/shows the PNA going Positive over the next week or two. So conflicting signals there from two different METS.

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Don't know where Gibbs is getting his info on the PNA? JB in his morning video says/shows the PNA going Positive over the next week or two. So conflicting signals there from two different METS.

PNA looks like its rising but it might be neutral at best. JB thinks there might be some fun during the first week of April before we really warm up towards the end of april.

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haha, it seems slowly my evil plan to get everyone to unilaterally hate march 22 - may 9 is almost complete...

 

muah ahahhaahha.   

 

-altho, i wouldn't ever outlook a big severe event in new england some 8 days in advance - 

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That seems like a pattern to really play with fire after 4/2.  That cold source in Canada is sitting there to get tapped. 

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That seems like a pattern to really play with fire after 4/2.  That cold source in Canada is sitting there to get tapped. 

Do we tap the bottle and twist the cap..or do we just tap the bottle, but cap stays on?

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Do we tap the bottle and twist the cap..or do we just tap the bottle, but cap stays on?

Obviously it's not easy to get April snow, but step 1 is colder air nearby.....is this is usually a very big step to have.

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Do we tap the bottle and twist the cap..or do we just tap the bottle, but cap stays on?

YBT,,,, DJ Kamron grew up two towns from me

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Man what a cold dump on the GFS with storm forming in the GOM.

Went ots but wow thats some cold air for april.

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heh, was about to start the April pattern thread - word... 

 

looks like a pretty clear cookie cutter pattern en route as the bevy of more dependable (and not) global operational guidance sources are hinting and/or outright fitting pretty squarely into the teleconnector modes/modalities heading into the first week of April.  

 

-- sea-saw of large scale mass fields that'll take some 7 to 10 days to play out.  

 

The hybrid PNA /EPO ridge amplifies at first along and just W of the Canadian sea coast and fitting well with that expectation heights at first plummet downwards ... smartly into the Great Basin area of the west, before this trough matures east way out in time. 

 

During those earlier phases of the total synoptic evolution ...offers some chance for yet another late season addition to seasonal snow totals at and above midland elevations of the mountains, working lower in time, .. with perhaps some sort of more organized event closer to the Front Range/Denver area.   

 

While all that is happening ... heights will likely response upward significantly in the E ... swathing a large area of seasonal warmth farther N-E into areas of the GL-OV-NE that have suffered a bit of seasonal lag as of late, with generalized above normal warming farther S....  

 

But it will/would have a lease!  The extended operationals as individuals and thus in blend ...concur with the bulging -EPO by constructing said western ridge enough to tap deep high latitude arctic air.  Confidence is a bit higher than normal for this far out in time, but close to the end of the middle range and beyond, folks in the GL-OV and eventually NE regions should be aware that an intense late season cold shot may be rumbling S as the -EPO collapses into a transient +PNAP that has a ridge axis more E centered over the Rockies cordillera.  That should impart a deep layer NNW flow from said tapped source ..only offset at all by climbing seasonal sun angles... but still ends the early warm party that does and probably will materialize toward the end of next week.  Temps should be well below normal in that air mass for few days.  

 

For those holding out hope for snow ...  as that pattern relaxes way out there...talking D10 or 12 ..ish, the return restoring may feature something.  This does not include the 'ending as flakes' possibility around 108 hours...  Look to perhaps the April 6/7 

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Wake me on Memorial Day. Or if there's a legit widespread 6+ opportunity. Spring has always been ugly particularly the closer one is to the ocean.

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Man what a brutal cold shot that is on the GFS between Day 7-10.

-20C at H85 at BOS/TAN/ORH/BDL with -18C at ACK. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most of SNE verbatim. Up here it's showing a high of 15F and low near zero. That's a classic example of useless cold haha. Windy and frigid on April 4th.

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Man what a brutal cold shot that is on the GFS between Day 7-10.

-20C at H85 at BOS/TAN/ORH/BDL with -18C at ACK. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most of SNE verbatim. Up here it's showing a high of 15F and low near zero. That's a classic example of useless cold haha. Windy and frigid on April 4th.

Would be a shame to waste it. Probably will.

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Euro day 10 look probably would have some sort of event after day 11. I know I know.....but that would work if it's not suppressed.

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That cold in SE Canada looks like BDF potential though. At least up this way. Better off having more of a deeper trough in Rockies. Definitely a nice look further south.

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That cold in SE Canada looks like BDF potential though. At least up this way. Better off having more of a deeper trough in Rockies. Definitely a nice look further south.

 

Yep...lots of cold lurking in SE Canada is usually a good recipe for muting our warm shots...you get these models runs that show 70F for like 4-5 days, and it ends up being a day or two...or zero. NYC and southwest roasts...or maybe even up to BDL/CEF...and the rest of us are murk....or only see brief nice weather.

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I'll take the way over on those numbers if it's sunny. That's ridiculous . GFS cold bias

 

It is a ridiculous cold shot as modeled.  There's only so much sun can do to -20C at H85 if that's what verified.

 

If its sunny you are right it'd be way over but on the flip side the overnight lows would be colder with clear skies.

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interesting battle of extremes there ... with significant negative SD air mass up underneath a post Equinox sun - nice experiment chance in offsetting variables.  

 

My guess is that afternoons claw and scrape still to almost 40 despite an air mass that would hold up in the teens in January.  

 

Snow atmosphere there...  and agree with Scott - tho obviously we're not talking details... but as that 2-3 day  window post cold arrival tries to restore to climo ... I think has chance.   Probably the last one at that -

 

That's an impressive 2 days of out-doorsy air late Wed - Fri, too.   As I said in the war and peace post above... it's really a 7 to 10 day mass field sea saw.

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