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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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Woah

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z MAR20

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

TUE 12Z 22-MAR  -1.4    -7.2    1017      62      87    0.00     541     528    

TUE 18Z 22-MAR   3.0    -3.3    1012      65      99    0.01     544     535    

WED 00Z 23-MAR   3.8     0.9    1006      78      91    0.02     546     541    

WED 06Z 23-MAR   3.7     0.7    1007      90      75    0.01     547     542    

WED 12Z 23-MAR   0.1    -2.9    1013      88      71    0.01     548     537    

WED 18Z 23-MAR   2.7    -5.3    1017      58      62    0.00     551     537    

THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.5    -5.5    1019      68      69    0.00     552     537    

THU 06Z 24-MAR  -0.5    -6.1    1020      59      89    0.04     553     537    

THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.6    -7.7    1020      62     100    0.03     553     537    

THU 18Z 24-MAR  -4.0    -6.4    1017      81      99    0.36     553     540    

FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -3.9    -2.4    1010      87      99    0.52     552     544    

FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -2.0     4.1    1000      87      79    0.67     547     547    

FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -4.2    -0.6    1002      85      79    0.17     540     538    

FRI 18Z 25-MAR  -1.4    -8.2    1009      64      74    0.01     541     534    

SAT 00Z 26-MAR  -2.0    -9.4    1018      70      21    0.00     545     531    

 

 

10" of snow followed by 3/4" of ice. That'd be sumtin!

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Holy smokes, LOL. I agree that it most likely will be a big dog. Only in 2016 would the only "big dog" be in spring. 

 

Here's the entire CONUS for anyone who lives outside of the region posted!

 

I'd light $1000 on fire to get that verification.

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Local offices aren't buying what the Euro is selling at this point. It's been bouncing around quite a bit from run to run. What's surprising is the GFS consistency. This reminds me a bit of GHD III where everyone wrote off the GFS and rode the Euro because it's the Euro. That didn't pan out so well.

More changes coming I'm sure.

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Can't get the 12z GFS for some reason.

 

I don't think it even initialized. 

 

GEM is little farther south than the 6z GFS.

 

Ice in southern WI, central MI, heavy snow just north of it. 33° rain here.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

EPS

 

post-46-0-05092600-1458490119.png

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I don't think it even initialized. 

 

GEM is little farther south than the 6z GFS.

 

Ice in southern WI, central MI, heavy snow just north of it. 33° rain here.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

 

 

Don't know if it will be as dramatic this time but models have that look again with the front coming down the lake, a la Feb 29.

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Can't get the 12z GFS for some reason.

 

NOUS42 KWNO 201644

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1642Z SUN MAR 20 2016

NCO AND EMC STAFF CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT THE PROBLEM WITH THE

12Z GFS. DELAYS AT THIS POINT ARE APPROACHING 2 HOURS AND WILL

GROW LONGER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS MORE

INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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Don't know if it will be as dramatic this time but models have that look again with the front coming down the lake, a la Feb 29.

 

That date came to mind.

EURO drops that baroclinic zone to the south quickly. Front gets all the way down to south of Kankakee. Other models hang it up around I-80.

 

How strong that first system is on Tuesday will determine how fast that drop can drop through. 

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Yeah, quite a bit of ice just south of the big snow band.  Location/amounts aside, becoming more and more likely that this will have a band of significant snow and ice. 

This event reminds me a lot of April 03, the first week. We had warmth leading into the event, temps even into the 70s this time probably low 60s and then the Arctic front pressed on and contracted as a system moved out on the 4th into the 5th. We had one hell of an ice storm here that knocked out about 450,000 customers just in SE MI alone. The highlight of that event was several hours of TSFZRA.

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West-central Iowa to southern Wisconsin looked real nice on the Euro.  The snowfall maps posted earlier have too much snow on the southern end.  Thermals look too warm to support snow until after 18z on Thursday.  Weak WAA at 850 lingers until then south of Iowa City to Rockford.  Has the looks of a classic Omaha/Sioux City to La Crosse/Madison snowstorm.  Not writing it off down along the I-80 corridor yet, but not expecting much here.  

 

First calls...

Hawkeye 1-2" of slop, with 10-15" a few counties to the north.

Here/QC 1" of rain followed by a burst of snow showers

Geos 2-6" of snow

DLL 8-12" of white cement

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The GFS is still sleeping this morning.

 

Went out and hit the bars last night!  :lmao:

 

West-central Iowa to southern Wisconsin looked real nice on the Euro.  The snowfall maps posted earlier have too much snow on the southern end.  Thermals look too warm to support snow until after 18z on Thursday.  Weak WAA at 850 lingers until then south of Iowa City to Rockford.  Has the looks of a classic Omaha/Sioux City to La Crosse/Madison snowstorm.  Not writing it off down along the I-80 corridor yet, but not expecting much here.  

 

First calls...

Hawkeye 1-2" of slop, with 10-15" a few counties to the north.

Here/QC 1" of rain followed by a burst of snow showers

Geos 2-6" of snow

DLL 8-12" of white cement

 

Thanks - generous. 

:lol:

 

Some real monsters on the EPS ensembles. E8, E21...

 

post-46-0-40120000-1458490474.png

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Hour 72-84 low starts to get cranking around Wichita. F-gen band sets up over S WI and N IL like last night. 

 

Mix along the state line initially, then goes to snow. '

 

Front is way down by Lincoln this time at hour 84.

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