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RyanDe680

March 23-24 System

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Soaker with some north edge snow. Posted the EURO snowfall map in the winter thread.

 

It's a 2 wave system really. First comes on the 23rd, then the 24th into early the 25th.

 

Total snowfall through the 25th.

 

 

acc10_1snowmw.png

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The potential for significant mixing through/north of the GTA is beginning to gain some support on the globals. The EC/EPS/GEFS and now the GFS have something notable.

 

Basically going to see a CO low track ENE into the plains with a strong high across Que allowing QPF north of the WF to stay frozen. Where this zone sets up may take a while to pinpoint.

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sfctmw.png

 

 

 

 

Typical Iowa March weather right here :lol:  30 and heavy snow in the northern 1/4 and 60s-70s with moderate rain in the southern 2/3. 

 

The GFS is stronger this run and only steepens the gradient of temperatures found across the state. 

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The potential for significant mixing through/north of the GTA is beginning to gain some support on the globals. The EC/EPS/GEFS and now the GFS have something notable.

Basically going to see a CO low track ENE into the plains with a strong high across Que allowing QPF north of the WF to stay frozen. Where this zone sets up may take a while to pinpoint.

Kind of looks like the first week of April in 2003. Below freezing temps and frozen precip in the GTA and 70s south of the warm front.

Last night's 00z UKMET is similar as well. Today's 12z GFS gives a significant dump of snow for the GTA during the day Wednesday before changing to sleet/freezing rain overnight into Thursday.

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Models are sort of flopping around on the multi-wave solution, which was key to getting snow chances farther south.  We'll see if it comes back.

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stunned, another storm with an advertised small corridor of goods. later in snow season that's probably common but its been that way w/e you want to call this past snow snow season its seemed. 

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Kind of looks like the first week of April in 2003. Below freezing temps and frozen precip in the GTA and 70s south of the warm front.

Last night's 00z UKMET is similar as well. Today's 12z GFS gives a significant dump of snow for the GTA during the day Wednesday before changing to sleet/freezing rain overnight into Thursday.

 

Gonna be interesting. Was planning on making the trek back to Toronto for the Easter Weekend late on Wednesday.

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Gonna be interesting. Was planning on making the trek back to Toronto for the Easter Weekend late on Wednesday.

12z Euro has near 1" frozen... 

 

Something to keep an eye on.

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1" of PL/SN...or 1" liquid QPF equivalent?

1" liquid equivalent. Looks like a typical SN-PL-ZR-RN progression. ZR is more dominant than the other p-types on this run.

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1" liquid equivalent. Looks like a typical SN-PL-ZR-RN progression. ZR is more dominant than the other p-types on this run.

 

Thanks! Colder look is somewhat novel so I won't get too excited at this point. Plus, climo is definitely working against us although it's not impossible to do snow/ice this late in the season (March 23, 2011, April 3-5, 2003 as some recent-ish examples).

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Thanks! Colder look is somewhat novel so I won't get too excited at this point. Plus, climo is definitely working against us although it's not impossible to do snow/ice this late in the season (March 23, 2011, April 3-5, 2003 as some recent-ish examples).

Throw in April 2013. That was mostly ZR IIRC.

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Nice agreement on placement of the snow in S Minnesota on all 3 global models.

Yeah, remarkable agreement being 4 days out. 18z GFS bumped the snow a bit north, but no major changes.

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18z GFS is a lot of cold rain here. Stays in the 30s with a ripping NE wind the whole time.

 

Total snowfall

 

acc10_1snowmw.png

 

EURO is favoring areas a bit farther south.

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EURO a big hit for Iowa, southern WI, northern IL, lower MI this run. South and colder this run.

 

Storms starts in 90 hours.

Holy Toledo! 30" for Milwaukee!

 

post-7-0-99324700-1458455635.jpg

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If models still showing a big storm on Monday, we've got a big dog coming I think.  :snowing:

 

20-21" here. Temps are cold underneath too. 20s, even during the day and well into IL.

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EURO a big hit for Iowa, southern WI, northern IL, lower MI this run. South and colder this run.

 

Storms starts in 90 hours.

Holy Toledo! 30" for Milwaukee!

 

post-7-0-99324700-1458455635.jpg

Holy smokes, LOL. I agree that it most likely will be a big dog. Only in 2016 would the only "big dog" be in spring. 

 

Here's the entire CONUS for anyone who lives outside of the region posted!

post-13724-0-07056900-1458457502_thumb.j

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Woah

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z MAR20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

TUE 12Z 22-MAR  -1.4    -7.2    1017      62      87    0.00     541     528    
TUE 18Z 22-MAR   3.0    -3.3    1012      65      99    0.01     544     535    
WED 00Z 23-MAR   3.8     0.9    1006      78      91    0.02     546     541    
WED 06Z 23-MAR   3.7     0.7    1007      90      75    0.01     547     542    
WED 12Z 23-MAR   0.1    -2.9    1013      88      71    0.01     548     537    
WED 18Z 23-MAR   2.7    -5.3    1017      58      62    0.00     551     537    
THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.5    -5.5    1019      68      69    0.00     552     537    
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -0.5    -6.1    1020      59      89    0.04     553     537    
THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.6    -7.7    1020      62     100    0.03     553     537    
THU 18Z 24-MAR  -4.0    -6.4    1017      81      99    0.36     553     540    
FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -3.9    -2.4    1010      87      99    0.52     552     544    
FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -2.0     4.1    1000      87      79    0.67     547     547    
FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -4.2    -0.6    1002      85      79    0.17     540     538    

FRI 18Z 25-MAR  -1.4    -8.2    1009      64      74    0.01     541     534    
SAT 00Z 26-MAR  -2.0    -9.4    1018      70      21    0.00     545     531    

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