wisconsinwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The GGEM/NAM/UKMET are closer to the Euro than the GFS. The GEM is just about a compromise, the NAM is in its long range, and the UKIE has a tendency to be all over the place. I'd like to be optimistic about the Euro, but the fact that this new Euro bombed on the East Coast storm we're seeing now doesn't leave me too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The GEM is just about a compromise, the NAM is in its long range, and the UKIE has a tendency to be all over the place. I'd like to be optimistic about the Euro, but the fact that this new Euro bombed on the East Coast storm we're seeing now doesn't leave me too optimistic. The UKIE has has better verification then the GFS this winter and last year. Why do you think the US Military doesn't use the GFS anymore and uses the UKMET and ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The UKIE has has better verification then the GFS this winter and last year. Why do you think the US Military doesn't use the GFS anymore and uses the UKMET and ECMWF It's not the worst model, but it does tend to overamp things (which it interestingly isn't doing with this one yet). Regardless, it definitely seems to be setting up a model war, especially since the Euro and GFS' respective ensembles generally back up their operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's not the worst model, but it does tend to overamp things (which it interestingly isn't doing with this one yet). Regardless, it definitely seems to be setting up a model war, especially since the Euro and GFS' respective ensembles generally back up their operational runs. Follow seasonal trends. Drier and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The EPS/GEPS adjusted north a bit today. The GEFS have remained pretty consistent since the 0z run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Not delusional. I don't think... lol A third of that would be really impressive for the last 7 days of March, let alone most of it. Both systems for anyone wondering. And it had the second system last night in the same area as the GFS was hitting on the 12z run. This is 240 hours... how about we see one at 120 hours total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 5th place Do you remember how efficient the icing was during the daylight hours back then? Not really, all I know is it was around 1" totals. With the northern suburbs over 1". That was the last time, and maybe the only time, I ever remember actually seeing damage from ice in my old neighborhood, if that says anything. It was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Follow seasonal trends. Drier and weaker. Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Follow seasonal trends. Drier and weaker. Well that would mean south then. Rainer for here mkx south Fixed First guess is that Milwaukee gets their biggest snowstorm this "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Now i have to stay up for 0z ... Euro shifts north and its a central WI money shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Most likely.Or the typical trend with strong negative tilt upper waves and associated surface lows- farther north/west, especially ones that start out relatively far north in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 This is 240 hours... how about we see one at 120 hours total? EPS control Ensemble Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 DVN's first stab at it. Looks good, although I would probably shift the rain/snow line about 50-70 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Hard to see how this one falls apart at this point. It's nice being a few days out and not 5+. I guess if we get a multi-wave scenario then it could damper totals a bit, but the odds of this producing a band of 12+ are pretty darn good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I have been tracking this storm for the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I have been tracking this storm for the last week. I remember when it was right over Chicago and even east towards You. Now the snow band has turned itself more west to east. TWC jumping on board too. Looks like they favor a EURO, GFS blend; weighted on the EURO a little more. https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/more-snow-headed-for-parts-of-midwest-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Milwaukee sounding data off the EURO. Nearly 4" of water. MKE WED 18Z 23-MAR 0.9 -1.8 1016 87 97 0.16 556 543WED 21Z 23-MAR 0.4 -3.5 1017 89 100 0.18 556 542THU 00Z 24-MAR 0.1 -2.7 1018 89 100 0.33 556 542THU 03Z 24-MAR 0.0 -3.3 1019 93 100 0.15 556 541THU 06Z 24-MAR -1.4 -4.0 1018 86 99 0.27 555 541THU 09Z 24-MAR -1.6 -4.6 1016 82 98 0.10 553 541THU 12Z 24-MAR -2.1 -4.8 1016 86 100 0.30 553 541THU 15Z 24-MAR -1.6 -4.0 1014 87 98 0.14 552 541THU 18Z 24-MAR -1.4 -3.8 1011 88 98 0.27 550 541THU 21Z 24-MAR -1.2 -5.1 1007 89 99 0.30 548 542FRI 00Z 25-MAR -1.5 -7.6 1006 90 99 0.71 544 539FRI 03Z 25-MAR -1.7 -8.0 1005 90 96 0.33 541 537FRI 06Z 25-MAR -1.7 -8.2 1005 87 93 0.45 539 535FRI 09Z 25-MAR -2.0 -9.7 1005 86 91 0.06 537 533FRI 12Z 25-MAR -2.4 -10.0 1007 85 91 0.10 538 533FRI 15Z 25-MAR -1.6 -9.0 1010 78 74 0.02 542 533FRI 18Z 25-MAR -0.5 -8.8 1013 71 57 0.02 543 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Glad i took off thurs for a x-long weekend. Wow we're going to be buried in snow Or mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Glad i took off thurs for a x-long weekend. Wow we're going to be buried in snow Or mud. Haha. Maybe mud to snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Or the typical trend with strong negative tilt upper waves and associated surface lows- farther north/west, especially ones that start out relatively far north in latitude. probably a good bet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 NAM north again. Kicks the low out quicker than the EURO. Front passage is about 6 hours later. Looks like the northern bleeding has stopped with this model at least. 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Something to bring up, the GFS and Euro have close to 60mph wind gust's in Southern MI/Northern IN/Northwest Ohio during the peak of the heavy rain (on the GFS) and the apocalyptic ice (on the euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 One would think the Euro would at least start to make a move towards the NAM and GFS tonight. If not, just maybe we finally get lucky and take one home in SE, WI. Been kind of dry times for weenies. Goodnight! Xavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 One would think the Euro would at least start to make a move towards the NAM and GFS tonight. If not, just maybe we finally get lucky and take one home in SE, WI. Been kind of dry times for weenies. Goodnight! Xavier On that note. EURO likes to be King and it doesn't like to move unless it has a darn good reason to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Something to bring up, the GFS and Euro have close to 60mph wind gust's in Southern MI/Northern IN/Northwest Ohio during the peak of the heavy rain (on the GFS) and the apocalyptic ice (on the euro). Looks like a fairly windy system but winds like that would have a tough time mixing down in this setup. Possible exception could be in any convective showers/thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 One would think the Euro would at least start to make a move towards the NAM and GFS tonight. If not, just maybe we finally get lucky and take one home in SE, WI. Been kind of dry times for weenies. Goodnight! Xavier Entered this over at the Minnesota Forecaster site: I'm known their as Randyinchamplin: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2016/03/a-final-hurrah-for-snow-lovers.html#comment-form I think SE WI is good to go with most of the MSP metro area getting a grazing 2-3" in the se and almost nothing in the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I remember when it was right over Chicago and even east towards You. Now the snow band has turned itself more west to east. TWC jumping on board too. Looks like they favor a EURO, GFS blend; weighted on the EURO a little more. https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/more-snow-headed-for-parts-of-midwest-next-week If the GFS is right, this one might go too far north for me to care about. I really don't want this anymore than 150 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Entered this over at the Minnesota Forecaster site: I'm known their as Randyinchamplin: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2016/03/a-final-hurrah-for-snow-lovers.html#comment-form I think SE WI is good to go with most of the MSP metro area getting a grazing 2-3" in the se and almost nothing in the NW Wouldn't be the first time the GFS jumped too early. Makes sense the storm would really get going as the low level jet came in. Speaking of that. GFS seems to be a touch slower this run. maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 NOUS42 KWNO 201644 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1642Z SUN MAR 20 2016 NCO AND EMC STAFF CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT THE PROBLEM WITH THE 12Z GFS. DELAYS AT THIS POINT ARE APPROACHING 2 HOURS AND WILL GROW LONGER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Good explanation from MPX as to what happened to the 03/20 12z run of the GFS. "AN INTERESTING SITUATION DEVELOPED TODAY IN THAT THERE WERE PROBLEMS WITH THE PRE-PROCESSING THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS. AS A RESULT IT STARTED LATE WITH NO UPPER AIR DATA OR AIRCRAFT DATA...ONLY SATELLITE DATA. REMARKABLY...THERE WAS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE NOTED WITH THE SOLUTION TODAY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TODAYS GFS KEEPS SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN LINE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS HAS HAD THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK OR INTENSITY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS is a bit south, the low doesn't enter SE WI on this run. Passes just south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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