high risk Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 yes, the NAM nest is close to a best-case scenario here. We lose the first 0.3-0.4 to rain with a warm boundary layer, but it goes over to snow by 3z. (It has occasional mixing with sleet at DCA, but I didn't look at the soundings). Another 0.4-0.5" liquid falls after the changeover through 12z, and it may not be done by then. Temps are very marginal, but it falls at night which is our best hope for getting something to stick. 4km NAM is 0.75-1" liquid and 1-3/2-4" snow, higher over the blue ridge/upslope favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 TT snow maps for 00z GFS look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z GFS holds serve. No change other than perhaps a bit more snow east of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z GFS holds serve. No change other than perhaps a bit more snow east of the BR. Agreed! Was thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The para euro has been deadly at hr72. We're just about there. I've never seen anything like it. I'm thinking the only glaring issue is surface temps and not precip amounts or even precip type but rain will come easier if the euro is just a couple degrees too cold. I don't have access to it. What did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I don't have access to it. What did it show? The main Euro is now what the para used to be! Unless there is some other para that I am unaware of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The main Euro is now what the para used to be! Unless there is some other para that I am unaware of! My post was poorly worded. The current euro is the old "para' euro. The para euro was excellent in the short time during the beta phase. No way I'm betting against it this weekend or ever inside of 72-96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The GFS didnt seem like a great run to me..its been kinda steady, but with that evolution, I dont buy the snow maps, generally light precip with temps mid 30s wont get it done in March, we need a EURO solution which Im kinda skeptical of...no doubt, most likely solution is snow TV late Sat night thru Sun with coatings on mulch beds and grasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The GFS didnt seem like a great run to me..its been kinda steady, but with that evolution, I dont buy the snow maps, generally light precip with temps mid 30s wont get it done in March, we need a EURO solution which Im kinda skeptical of...no doubt, most likely solution is snow TV late Sat night thru Sun with coatings on mulch beds and grasses Sounds like we should wrap it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Sounds like we should wrap it up Its March 18th...if its a wrapped up system like the EUro, it could happen, but its kinda on its own at this point...EURO might be too amped on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Its March 18th...if its a wrapped up system like the EUro, it could happen, but its kinda on its own at this point...EURO might be too amped on this one.. Ukie is very similar but I agree. Everything this time of the year needs to be perfect especially during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ggem gets going just a little late for us. It's decent generally .5-.75 qpf but the heavy stuff 1"+ qpf is just a little to our northeast. ETA: it's very euro like only shifted east about 50-75 miles with the deform band. It's close to a big hit though and just shifted a ton in one run plus it's an awful model anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ggem gets going just a little late for us. It's decent generally .5-.75 qpf but the heavy stuff 1"+ qpf is just a little to our northeast. ETA: it's very euro like only shifted east about 50-75 miles with the deform band. It's close to a big hit though and just shifted a ton in one run plus it's an awful model anyways. That is a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 UKIE has colder 850s this run but holds back the heavier precip compared to 12z. Only about 0.1" falls in DC by 12z on Sunday, and 0.5" by 00z. By then it looks like the heaviest precip is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 UKIE has colder 850s this run but holds back the heavier precip compared to 12z. Only about 0.1" falls in DC by 12z on Sunday, and 0.5" by 00z. By then it looks like the heaviest precip is done. The low is not quite as deep as prior runs. Step in the wrong direction for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The low is not quite as deep as prior runs. Step in the wrong direction for us. I didn't want to be the downer when everyone else was saying it looked good but I was a little let down by it. Time of year means we need the high qpf thump like the euro for this to work. .5 qpf spread out over 12 hours during the day isn't going to work. Ggem for example is .7 qpf and in winter probably a nice 6-8" storm but here it's 1-2" of slop. Hopefully euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Well the Euro sucks... its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And the euro significantly reduces qpf for all but southern md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro caves oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Westminster goes from .9 at 12Z to .4 at 0z. Baltimore from 1.3 down to .6. DCA 1.4 to .6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What was wrong with us thinking the euro had any chance against the gfs lol Seems when the euro is dr no it's deadly but when it tries to play dr yes it becomes less reliable. I jokingly said a while ago when there is model divergence go with the one that screws us out of snow and your right most of the time. Just happens that's the euro more often then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 lol Euro. Wasn't so locked in I guess. Looks much like the GFS now. Have to wait and see what the eps looks like. At this range, I dont think this is just a hiccup run, especially given the NAM, even at the edge of its range, and GFS have been advertising a much less impressive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lucy wore a disguise so she could get us one last time lol. Euro seems to do what the gfs has been doing and allow the wave to rave out ahead of the upper level support then the coastal just takes forever to develop because everything is disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And I thought the Para Euro would be an upgrade... It was the only model to completely get rid of the blizzard for a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lucy wore a disguise so she could get us one last time lol. Euro seems to do what the gfs has been doing and allow the wave to rave out ahead of the upper level support then the coastal just takes forever to develop because everything is disjointed. Yeah and I think this may trend further in that direction. Some people love to beat on the GFS and say its crappy, but it has done pretty well this winter IMO. In any case, when one of the more reliable models is on a island at this range, it should be viewed with skepticism. Euro is not infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 and people on here swear up and down euro is king. It has it's good and bad like all other major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 But Euro fans will come back with one liners as to why it did fine vs the GFS and it's the king. It's King Crapola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 EPS keeps some hope alive.. a step down from 12z but not too bad considering the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro Precipitation amounts cut in half and spread over a 30-hour period. East of DC, rain would begin mid-day Saturday with temperatures in lower 40s. Possible end as rain/snow mix as temperatures fall to mid 30s by late Sunday. Hopefully Euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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