2016 Spring/Summer Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

[A-L-E-K]

last 3 runs have as little as .20" and as much as 6" over N. IL for a run total, so i wouldn't get too hung up

 

although the next 7 days does look drier than average in general

[Jonger]

When we do get a strong wind storm, it's going to be a limb busting frenzy. Storms are natures pruning sheers, the longer you go, the worse the shedding will be.

[RogueWaves]

Something's forming near Coldwater.

 

Legit shower in Kzoo and one county south and somehow screwed the one county in between - NOTHING forms over Marshall

 

The stuff in Indiana has taken off. Not much going on farther north.

 

SO 2016

 

Meanwhile everythings flooding in Hillsdale

 

While the dust storms rage here

 

screwed again

 

It'll find a way!

 

Got sprinkles here, and it looks like areas from DTW to downtown got solid light rain, so not a total shut out as far as precipitation for everyone. 

 

Got NADA

[Stebo]

crossing your fingers the drought doesn't carry over into winter?

Drought in the area isn't the issue in winter, it is upstream drought that is a bigger worry going into winter. Thankfully there isn't an upstream drought, at least not yet.

[michsnowfreak]

wow! and with the highest sun of the year aiding, it must be really dry looking. probably will affect the fall color at this point unless there's a soaker soon.

I actually looked that up yesterday. I think late summer drought hurts worse but not sure. We have had brilliant falls lately and I absolutely LOVE Fall so I'm hoping for the best.

[michsnowfreak]

crossing your fingers the drought doesn't carry over into winter?

Of course! I'd take being screwed and drought in summer over winter anyday. Plus with LA Nina I don't think drought will be a problem next winter. Anything can happen but odds would certainly favor normal to above normal precip.

[Trent]

Only about an inch of rain for the month here across lakeshore Cleveland too.

Even in extended wet periods, you can almost always find a 3-4 week dry spell from April to September most years. The question is how long will this one last and will it get worse?

[Chambana]

One thing that is for sure, this summer has featured some amazing weekend boating weather. Almost feels like since summer 2013 the weekends were **** sometimes, especially during 2015.

[Hoosier]

Your random fact of the day. St. Louis has officially had 437 days of 100+ degree temps since records began. For comparison, that's almost 7 times as many as the official number for Chicago.

[stormtrackertf]

Your random fact of the day. St. Louis has officially had 437 days of 100+ degree temps since records began. For comparison, that's almost 7 times as many as the official number for Chicago.

That's probably around 20 times as many as Detroit has seen in that same time period, if not more.

[Jonger]

STL is way too hot for me. I was miserable yesterday at 87 with humidity.

[Geos]

I couldn't live in St. Louis either. That valley really traps the heat and moisture in during the summer.

[Hoosier]

That's probably around 20 times as many as Detroit has seen in that same time period, if not more.

Looks like Detroit has had 38 days at or above 100F.

[Powerball]

Only about an inch of rain for the month here across lakeshore Cleveland too.

Even in extended wet periods, you can almost always find a 3-4 week dry spell from April to September most years. The question is how long will this one last and will it get worse?

 

The bolded in this post is key.

 

Honestly, as a NWS meteorologist said in a recent Detroit News article, it has simply just been an exceptionally long period of bad luck for Detroit as the overall pattern isn't even supportive of long-term / widespread dryness. We've had plenty of systems come through with sufficient moisture for rain, but without strong enough forcing and instability to combine with them.

 

So some are making this "drought" sound much worse than it really is. I'm think the main reasons for the over-dramatization are:

 

1. We've been so unusually rainy the past few years that people thought the amount of wet weather we had become accustomed was the norm.

 

2. We just so happen to experience our dry spell during peak sun angle (versus when we usually do in August) and that's exasperating the browning of the grass. 

[IWXwx]

Lots of banter here, so I'll make a complaint. It's been 5 days since I've seen a tornado in my county.

[Stebo]

The bolded in this post is key.

 

Honestly, as a NWS meteorologist said in a recent Detroit News article, it has simply just been an exceptionally long period of bad luck for Detroit as the overall pattern isn't even supportive of long-term / widespread dryness. We've had plenty of systems come through with sufficient moisture for rain, but without strong enough forcing and instability to combine with them.

 

So some are making this "drought" sound much worse than it really is. I'm think the main reasons for the over-dramatization are:

 

1. We've been so unusually rainy the past few years that people thought the amount of wet weather we had become accustomed was the norm.

 

2. We just so happen to experience our dry spell during peak sun angle (versus when we usually do in August) and that's exasperating the browning of the grass. 

The concern I have is with the pattern we are in being conducive for rain, what happens if we move into a ridge and get no rain still. Things are really going to take off for a drought if we move into a ridging pattern.

[stormtrackertf]

Looks like Detroit has had 38 days at or above 100F.

Wow, I'm surprised by that. I guess the dust bowl days, that stretch in the mid-1950's, and 1988 make it look like they occur much more often than they do based on those numbers. Those three stretches account for more than half of our 100 degree days.

Between August 18th, 1988 and July 20th, 2011...we topped the century mark exactly once. Since then we've had 4 days above 100.

[Hoosier]

Wow, I'm surprised by that. I guess the dust bowl days, that stretch in the mid-1950's, and 1988 make it look like they occur much more often than they do based on those numbers. Those three stretches account for more than half of our 100 degree days.

Between August 18th, 1988 and July 20th, 2011...we topped the century mark exactly once. Since then we've had 4 days above 100.

The 100F days do tend to come in bunches. Sometimes it'll be a one-off but quite often they will come in twos, threes, fours etc. (if not consecutive days, then in the same year). It's one of those instances when simply determining an average number per year can be misleading.

[stormtrackertf]

The 100F days do tend to come in bunches. Sometimes it'll be a one-off but quite often they will come in twos, threes, fours etc. (if not consecutive days, then in the same year). It's one of those instances when simply determining an average number per year can be misleading.

Yeah, it's crazy when you look at it that way. There were seven days in a row where it was above 100 degrees in 1936, and a stretch of 22 years between 1955 and 1977 where there was not a single 100 degree day.

Unless global warming really kicks into high gear I have a hard time imagining SEVEN in a row ever happening again, and if it did I can only imagine how the general public would perceive it.  There would probably be mass hysteria.

Heck, there would probably be the same reaction if it happened in any of the metro areas of this subforum except St. Louis.

[Hoosier]

Yeah, it's crazy when you look at it that way. There were seven days in a row where it was above 100 degrees in 1936, and a stretch of 22 years between 1955 and 1977 where there was not a single 100 degree day.

Unless global warming really kicks into high gear I have a hard time imagining SEVEN in a row ever happening again, and if it did I can only imagine how the general public would perceive it. There would probably be mass hysteria.

Heck, there would probably be the same reaction if it happened in any of the metro areas of this subforum except St. Louis.

7 in a row there is hard to imagine. To even have a chance to repeat that, I think you would need to be in a drought (and a significant one at that) and get lucky (or unlucky depending on your point if view) with a very stagnant pattern. Either one of those factors is missing, forget it.

[IWXwx]

.....I have a hard time imagining SEVEN in a row ever happening again, and if it did I can only imagine how the general public would perceive it.  There would probably be mass hysteria.

Heck, there would probably be the same reaction if it happened in any of the metro areas of this subforum except St. Louis.

 

This. Even 1988 was almost surreal, although it was cool to live through from a weather hobbyist perspective. Of course that was before the internet etc.... But TV stations were going nuts reporting on the heat and dryness. I can't even imagine what it would be like today.

[Hoosier]

Tomorrow is the next update for the Drought Monitor.  This is the weekly precip that will factor in:

 

 

 

 

My guess is that more D0 will be added, with possibly some D1 expansion from southeastern Iowa into southwestern Illinois.  Will be curious to see if they add D1 in parts of Michigan or hold off.

 

Although there were some hot days this past week, at least temps weren't too extreme for the most part.  The combo of relentless sun/high heat is what really accelerates things.

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Here's a pic of the grass.  This is what the average lawn looks like around here, at least in the sun exposed/non-protected areas.

Could be worse, but the brown has gradually been increasing.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

Here's a pic of the grass. This is what the average lawn looks like around here, at least in the sun exposed/non-protected areas.

Could be worse, but the brown has gradually been increasing.

grass.png

Looks like here

[Powerball]

Tomorrow is the next update for the Drought Monitor.  This is the weekly precip that will factor in:

 

 

7dPNormMRCC.png

 

 

My guess is that more D0 will be added, with possibly some D1 expansion from southeastern Iowa into southwestern Illinois.  Will be curious to see if they add D1 in parts of Michigan or hold off.

 

Although there were some hot days this past week, at least temps weren't too extreme for the most part.  The combo of relentless sun/high heat is what really accelerates things.

 

 

7dTDeptMRCC.png

 

Today, DTX was sure to emphasize the fact that we're still technically not in a "drought."

 

[A-L-E-K]

should be enough to keep the D1 away

[Stebo]

Hey another line of storms that will die before it gets here.

[Hoosier]

New drought monitor is out.  Some cuts in D0 were made, especially in parts of Indiana and Ohio.  More D0 added in Michigan and a slight expansion of D1 around the IA/IL/MO tri-state area.

 

 

[Hoosier]

Milwaukee is getting a new MIC

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/mkx/newmic

[IWXwx]

Milwaukee is getting a new MIC

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/mkx/newmic

I remember Ben from his days at IWX. Congrats to Mr. Schott.