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The Last Hurrah for Winter? Late Winter/Early Spring Banter


dmillz25

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It's absolutely ripping rain in bellmore right now. This is not winter type rains. This is harder then it rains in a lot of summer thunderstorms here

Just look at the KDIX radar. Very convective look. Lots of elevated instability. It's one of the reasons why the globals have somewhat backed off. Going to be some big winners and big losers.

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Just look at the KDIX radar. Very convective look. Lots of elevated instability. It's one of the reasons why the globals have somewhat backed off. Going to be some big winners and big losers.

This is not at all normal for February. Testament to the amount of heat and moisture being drawn north by the super Nino. We knew this was bound to happen sooner or later. And this will not be the last time either. Very wet early spring on the way
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It was a fun winter. Sure, more snow would have been great, but at least we (or some of us) got the blizzard.

While we're discussing models for next month, what do they say for next winter? I am well aware they don't go out that far, but the models' accuracy in even the medium range is as horrid as it would be for forecasting a snowstorm 10 months from now. (And 10 months from now is pretty much our next realistic shot at a worthwhile snowstorm).

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It was a fun winter. Sure, more snow would have been great, but at least we (or some of us) got the blizzard.

While we're discussing models for next month, what do they say for next winter? I am well aware they don't go out that far, but the models' accuracy in even the medium range is as horrid as it would be for forecasting a snowstorm 10 months from now. (And 10 months from now is pretty much our next realistic shot at a worthwhile snowstorm).

The long range GFS shows a nice miller B at hour 7,224 next December 20. Snow maps show a general 30-40 inch thumping for the entire area. Would make for a great white Christmas. There may be mixing issues along the coast though. Will have to monitor.

Just me mocking the models not you.

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The long range GFS shows a nice miller B at hour 7,224 next December 20. Snow maps show a general 30-40 inch thumping for the entire area. Would make for a great white Christmas. There may be mixing issues along the coast though. Will have to monitor.

Just me mocking the models not you.

I hear you. Thought it was funny. Sadly, the models at hour 7,224 are about as accurate as they are at 72, particularly when it comes to East Coast snowstorms. It's sad that with all the technological developments we've made we have weather models that lag so far behind.

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I hear you. Thought it was funny. Sadly, the models at hour 7,224 are about as accurate as they are at 72, particularly when it comes to East Coast snowstorms. It's sad that with all the technological developments we've made we have weather models that lag so far behind.

Yep. Exactly the point I was making. Just look at yesterday's GFS it had Orange County in a general 30-36 inch snowfall middle of next week, today it's a GLC. You sometimes wonder why you track.

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I hear you. Thought it was funny. Sadly, the models at hour 7,224 are about as accurate as they are at 72, particularly when it comes to East Coast snowstorms. It's sad that with all the technological developments we've made we have weather models that lag so far behind.

The weather is that insanely complex. Even using Moores law (processor speed doubling every 2 years) it's going to be decades before we can accurately predict the weather past 72 hours. If ever!!!

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Yep, that's the one I was referring to. Really amazing stuff, considering it was the middle of April. I only got a dusting but that was pretty cool.

It snowed pretty hard that night, so I'm surprised you only got a dusting. I had 1" in Dobbs Ferry and 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn.

There was also a late-March Nor'easter in 2014 that barely missed delivering significant snow; dry air and marginal temperatures limited it to a rain-snow mix.

2013-14 was an incredible winter for the area. Dobbs Ferry had 74" snowfall, led by 16" on Valentine's Day.

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Well I am already sick of all the rain. Enough already. Snow is nice, lots of rain is nasty and produces lots of icky mud. Hope this stuff lifts outta here soon and for a few weeks. Rather it be 50's and dry than this.

Suck it up. Two days of rain all Winter. And you managed to pull out a severe threat.
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It snowed pretty hard that night, so I'm surprised you only got a dusting. I had 1" in Dobbs Ferry and 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn.

There was also a late-March Nor'easter in 2014 that barely missed delivering significant snow; dry air and marginal temperatures limited it to a rain-snow mix.

2013-14 was an incredible winter for the area. Dobbs Ferry had 74" snowfall, led by 16" on Valentine's Day.

It is surprising, but it took a long time to stick. In fact, during the day was rain, and I think when I went to bed there was light rain with very very little flakes mixing in. It must have dropped like a rock overnight though, because man was it cold that morning.

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It is surprising, but it took a long time to stick. In fact, during the day was rain, and I think when I went to bed there was light rain with very very little flakes mixing in. It must have dropped like a rock overnight though, because man was it cold that morning.

Had two mornings in the mid 20s in the middle of April 2014. Afternoon highs only reached the low 40s, which seemed weird with cherries and magnolias blooming. That was definitely a very memorable late-season wintry spell...
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