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The Last Hurrah for Winter? Late Winter/Early Spring Banter


dmillz25

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The Euro split the energy. It has a kicker coming down through the Northern Plains day 7-8 which helps to kick this system OTS, however it does eventually phase with another southern stream SW day 10.

f240.gif

The Euro has become so abysmal in the long range this winter, operational and EPS, I don't trust a damn thing it shows and neither should anyone else. Just a horrible track record long range this year
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The Euro has become so abysmal in the long range this winter, operational and EPS, I don't trust a damn thing it shows and neither should anyone else. Just a horrible track record long range this year

As I said in the other thread, too much energy involved. If the system phases too late it's probably going OTS and if it phases too soon it's coming inland, with no block to push it East or force a redevelopment. I supposed we could thread the needle with a track close enough to the coast, but even then you would be dealing with a retreating high.

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The Euro has become so abysmal in the long range this winter, operational and EPS, I don't trust a damn thing it shows and neither should anyone else. Just a horrible track record long range this year

Which model would you trust ? The 12Z Canadian was the 1st to suggest the storm track for whatever reason anyone wants to suggest is being suppresed later next week and now the Euro is showing a similar scenario. Makes sense since the MJO is entering phase 8 - the AO is going towards a more negative state later next week and the NAO is heading towards Neutral - in other words the pattern is changing again - we have had alot of volatility this winter with quick changes.......

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as hard as it is to mention snow,this system looks like it has 1 more trick up it's sleeve.and it looks like we might get a period of light snow tonight.currently we have a disturbance rounding the base and spreading rain over the metro and expanding.goes to snow tonight with the cold air already filtering in.temp has crashed 10 degrees in literally 2 hours too.currently 42/33f..

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When do I ever hump it? Im the last one to do so. I guess we cant post weather related stuff on a weather forum.

Last week you were saying how terrible the Euro was because it was the furthest West while the GFS was East. I am not picking on you, but I clearly remember posting about people always leap to the model that shows what they want, and that verification scores mean nothing.

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Even the 18Z GFS is suppressing the storm track next week -most models have the storms further south next week - cutter pattern is nearing its end 50 - 75 miles further south with the track and the Metro would be having another Blizzard - strong  Banana HP north and west

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

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Even the 18Z GFS is suppressing the storm track next week -most models have the storms further south next week - cutter pattern is nearing its end 50 - 75 miles further south with the track and the Metro would be having another Blizzard - strong Banana HP north and west

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

nice to look at, but it's an "18z" seven days out
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13/14 was a long duration snowpack. Mid January to late March here, longer in some of the woods where I mt bike. I'm terrible at remembering specifics but I want to say I had 70+ days straight imby.

excellent post and it applies more or less up here too...maybe 02-03 and 04-05 pretty close for us anyways but I was thinking of this the other day...intense periods of winter weather but little in the way of seasonal duration

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The thing about 13-14 was before the Valentine's Day Storm we already had a decent snowpack here. Then we got 16 inches and it was just incredible how deep the snow got. Literally looked like trenches. March that year had many misses, so while the pack did last, it really didn't get added to.

Last year was very good too, it piled up slowly with smaller events and because of the February cold snap it froze solid. Then you had March which was cold, and had more small storms, therefore allowing the pack to last long.

Amazing this time last year compared to now though. Ground is completely bare now, while last year it would have been bitter cold and snow all around.

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13/14 was a long duration snowpack. Mid January to late March here, longer in some of the woods where I mt bike. I'm terrible at remembering specifics but I want to say I had 70+ days straight imby.

 

Quite possible.  We had an inch or more from 1/23 - 3/10/14  and at least a trace from 1/22 to 3/19.  That's 57 days with at least a trace.  Presuming you had more than a trace through that period (and beyond) and if you kept some of the snow from the 1/2/14 storm (we did not) it's easily 70 days.

 

For 2015 we had 2 or more inches on the ground from 1/24 - 3/16 and at least a trace from 1/24 to 4/2, which has got to be some kind of record on the tail end (we had 11" total of snowfall after 3/20).

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