bluewave Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 65 in NYC already. Busted again. 70 is doable today. Same story since last May as the warmth has been exceeding guidance on a regular basis. Classic 2000's style stuck or stagnant weather pattern where the WAR has been dominating the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Few drops of rain here in New Brunswick if you can believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Same story since last May as the warmth has been exceeding guidance on a regular basis. Classic 2000's style stuck or stagnant weather pattern where the WAR has been dominating the pattern. 500.gif ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_4.png Could it be the giant cutoff low over MX/TX pumping up the heights over the East? This isn't rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Few drops of rain here in New Brunswick if you can believe that. KDIX radar shows a lot of light activity. I think some are taking modeled QPF too seriously. The boundary is going to be nearbye for the long haul, so any embedded shortwaves within the flow will have the potential to set off precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Obviously this goes way out in time and is highly subject to change but I wouldn't be banking on a dry next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 New Brunswick 71 degrees we torch! 1958 backloaded winter FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The 12z Euro is 0.25-0.50" of rain through Friday morning. That's how fast things can change when you have a stalled out boundary of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 High of 67 in the park. Now down to 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 New Brunswick 71 degrees we torch! 1958 backloaded winter FTL Makes it likely that many places away from the immediate coast hit 80F over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 High of 67 in the park. Now down to 62. Wind went from calm at noon to S 8 G 18 at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Wind went from calm at noon to S 8 G 18 at 1pm. Hit a high of 61 here. Down to 55 with a SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 70 so far here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Could it be the giant cutoff low over MX/TX pumping up the heights over the East? This isn't rocket science. That's just this week. But the long duration ridge pattern and record warmth has been in place much of the time since last May. This record cutoff and torrential rains are just the latest in the pattern that has been producing record rains over the Southern Central US since last spring . So its no surprise that Euro is printing such high rainfall totals NE of Houston this week. JM picked an interesting time to move to that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Max res 12z Euro has 1-3" of rain here over the next week to ten days while the 00z run had under 0.75". It seems like the guidance is starting to pick up on the boundary sinking a bit further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 Max res 12z Euro has 1-3" of rain here over the next week to ten days while the 00z run had under 0.75". It seems like the guidance is starting to pick up on the boundary sinking a bit further South.Once past the 15th, we have to think about cutoff low/heavy rain potential as the jetstream and westerlies continue their seasonal jog to the north and we still have an active STJ/southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 That's just this week. But the long duration ridge pattern and record warmth has been in place much of the time since last May. This record cutoff and torrential rains are just the latest in the pattern that has been producing record rains over the Southern Central US since last spring . So its no surprise that Euro is printing such high rainfall totals NE of Houston this week. JM picked an interesting time to move to that region. 12mPDeptUS.png biggest departures from normal in the entire country right over SNE. Amazing we have yet to put a dent in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Max res 12z Euro has 1-3" of rain here over the next week to ten days while the 00z run had under 0.75". It seems like the guidance is starting to pick up on the boundary sinking a bit further South. I could see that going either way-ridge flexes and we miss it all. Ridge is less impressive and we drown. However, given the map posted above, I might bet on dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 New Brunswick 71 degrees we torch! 1958 backloaded winter FTL File that one under 01-02 "vodka" cold is coming. Remember that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Sea breeze definitely through here. down to 55 after a high of 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I wasn't expecting the sea breeze front to pass through here but getting a stiff se wind and having to close the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 18z GFS drops 15 inches of rain on Arkansas in the next 3 days alone. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Hit 73 today...great to be alive..my bones are invigorated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Hit 73 today...great to be alive..my bones are invigorated I havè to say, this weather makes you feel much healthier and happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 50 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 File that one under 01-02 "vodka" cold is coming. Remember that one? Or SSW or PV displacement lol Sne posters think the euro looks good around the 20th Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Hit 70 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 RAP has Newark and all southwest hitting 80 tomorrow, certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Or SSW or PV displacement lol Sne posters think the euro looks good around the 20th Lolz For a day or two-GEFS show a warm pattern going for its entire run except for one day around the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Departures will really ramp up over the next week or so. All NYC needs for a top ten warmest March is to finish the month at +3.9 or greater. Quite a run for top ten warmest months at NYC since last May May.............2nd warmest August.........3rd warmest September..#1 warmest November...#1 warmest December..#1 warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Departures will really ramp up over the next week or so. All NYC needs for a top ten warmest March is to finish the month a +3.9 or greater. That should be an easy feat even if departures scale back a bit after the very warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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