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President's Day Storm Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Par for the course. As usual, I'll have to make a choice in the morning to drive into work or just stay home.

We should get into a good band during the afternoon and there should a long enough period to hold off warming above to get to 3 inches maybe 4. Anything in the morning looks spotty at best but you never know because sometimes a decent band cold develop where it's not modeled to. NAM is pretty cold for us at the surface until 2-3 in the morning so if that happens we could get a pretty good glaze on top of everything.

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Based on what I see with radar, I do think those north of Baltimore should still get on in decent stuff with the thump and ratios could really perform. Very cold aloft and decent lift with the reasonably strong waa over this cold dome in place.

i really think the northern edge of precip north of DC will be eaten alive in this area. I fully expect to see nothing on the ground when I wake up at 0930z. Still reporting overcast 10,000' at KIAD, so......it's going to be a late for some people waiting for the snow.
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locatiin. I doubt my expectation has anything to do with it. But you should do better tomorrow. Seen this setup before. This isn't the type up here usually wins. I will be shocked if that Westminster deathband shows up this time.

It will be a race against time for us but I think will squeeze 3 in before sleet mix. Euro gives us a nice batch of almost .3 liquid in the afternoon. Hope it's right.

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It will be a race against time for us but I think will squeeze 3 in before sleet mix. Euro gives us a nice batch of almost .3 liquid in the afternoon. Hope it's right.

if the euro is right on that little meso band we do ok but I've not seen much else today that agrees. I Just don't know how much precip we get up here from the waa. The stuff from the west with the low will be rain. That's set in stone. The waa wave seems south of us. Some really light stuff will make it up here I'm sure but the good stuff looks dc south to me. I'm content. We have had a great week up here. I've alrwady moved on. Long range staring to look promising today.
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