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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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00z gefs are west of the op. Also, anecdotally, this was the timeframe that the models suddenly shifted the late January storm way south. So there's your glass half full.

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My guess is that it will either come back NW or just fail to really materialize much (until may way out east).  I don't like the 0z GFS solution...I feel it will either be weaker / disorganized if it "misses south" like that or its going to be stronger and we'll fight the mix line.  This doesn't feel like a narrow miss to the south by a monster this time around.

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My guess is that it will either come back NW or just fail to really materialize much (until may way out east).  I don't like the 0z GFS solution...I feel it will either be weaker / disorganized if it "misses south" like that or its going to be stronger and we'll fight the mix line.  This doesn't feel like a narrow miss to the south by a monster this time around.

That makes a lot of sense. If this is strong enough to put down the amounts the ggem is showing, there's nothing to keep it from coming further north. The ggem is probably BS.

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Looks east of the 12z run but still west of the GFS/GEM.

 

Yeah, it's a very similar track. It's been consistent for several days. But the guidance is still all over, so not getting excited until its 1-2 days out. It's a very tough storm to get excited about because the cold air is so shallow and the radius of snow is such a small area.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

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Interested to see if the pondo model theory continues today. Flat or east at 00z, amped and west at 12z

Hah, right? So weird. Was it opposite (flat at 12 & amped at 0?) for the one in January?

I think I can live w/ the 0z Euro, about 4-5 inches & less of a chance we turn to rain. I just want some snow!!!!

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Hah, right? So weird. Was it opposite (flat at 12 & amped at 0?) for the one in January?

 

you could be right....  I just know the models seem to stick together with the back and forth swings between 12 and 00.

 

I wonder what today's featured screw job trend will be on the models.  I'm guessing thermal issues will be the big turd of the day.

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