midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just Quantico getting on the action earlier today! Now at least it grew! Do that again and the whole region would be happier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NAM was even good up here for me in Queens...pops a low off of ACY and crawls a bit. Good luck down there...I'm pulling for the DC crew!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It is so funny. When the NAM doesn't show what we want it is a horrible model. When it does show us what we want it is in it wheelhouse. Got to love weenies. post/handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 LWX just changed its forecast to heavy snow at DCA Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It is so funny. When the NAM doesn't show what we want it is a horrible model. When it does show us what we want it is in it wheelhouse. Got to love weenies. One person said that... and I called him/her out on it. I think most people on this board know that the NAM is a pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Last three runs of the NAM look like Cam Newton...just all over the place and lost but I'll certainly take this run! In all seriousness...whoever is along and north of the norlun feature will get dumped on with heavy rates but the BL temps are critical. The NAM is colder only because of the simulated dynamic cooling from the heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sfc temp has no relation to ratio. If the temperature is 32-33 flakes will partially melt on the way down and reduce ratios. You aren't going to get perfect stellar dendrites when you are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sfc temp has no relation to ratio. I was wondering about that though. Let's say you got nice big dendrites but the surface was like 34 degrees and you experienced melting on your snowboard. For arguments sake lets say after a 6 hour sweep you had 3 inches with a very melty layer on the bottom. If it had been cold the depth might have been like 4 or 5 inches. When figuring out the ratios after the event would you use the melty snow depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 One person said that... and I called him/her out on it. I think most people on this board know that the NAM is a pipe dream. I said it and you did not call me out on it. I said it as a joke and we all know that. NAM is a dream scenario and is only good 6 hours out or half of what we need here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If the temperature is 32-33 flakes will partially melt on the way down and reduce ratios. You aren't going to get perfect stellar dendrites when you are above freezing. Tell that to 2/22/87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I said it and you did not call me out on it. I said it as a joke and we all know that. NAM is a dream scenario and is only good 6 hours out or half of what we need here Ok, should've turned my snarky meter up But yeah, nobody truly believes the NAM, especially when its been jackpotting a different area each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If the temperature is 32-33 flakes will partially melt on the way down and reduce ratios. You aren't going to get perfect stellar dendrites when you are above freezing. The flakes aren't going to melt with temps that cold aloft. If it was like in the lower 40s at the sfc, sure, but not 32-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z RGEM is much farther N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z RGEM considerably farther N compared to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z RGEM is much farther N 18z RGEM considerably farther N compared to 12z run. Dude, we know the NAM is wrong. Calm down, you'll jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z RGEM is much farther N 18z RGEM considerably farther N compared to 12z run. Is it north of 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Dude, we know the NAM is wrong. Calm down, you'll jackpot. he had to repeat it twice in back to back posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Dude, we know the NAM is wrong. Calm down, you'll jackpot.Honestly that would make the other RGEM runs wrong also. So now we have nam going way south while the RGEM comes north (though not like the day conversely did) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sick run of the RGEM. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is it north of 12z? Lol...so many different forums I forgot I already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sick run of the RGEM. Sick. That could mean good or bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think I found a new profile pic. Too late. It's mine lol. Quick annoying question. Does anyone remember the 7" dump of snow like a day after the blizzard of 96? It was very local and I'm not sure if anyone outside of AA county got in on it. Was that a norlan?Clouds really starting to lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 hr 24 hires-NAM looks purrrty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 hr 24 hires-NAM looks purrrty Is the hi-res the same as the 4k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is the hi-res the same as the 4k? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is the hi-res the same as the 4k? yes, indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wait why are 4k NAM snowfall maps from weatherbell banned? I thought it was only paywall models, like the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is the hi-res the same as the 4k? Yes. Check bottom of map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Tell that to 2/22/87 The flakes aren't going to melt with temps that cold aloft. If it was like in the lower 40s at the sfc, sure, but not 32-33F. Jesus. I was just pointing out that snow growth was ideal aloft with the caveat that we aren't seeing 15:1 with surface temps so warm. It's possible whoever gets an inch of liquid does better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Usually I'd run away shaking my head seeing a map like the one I posted above, but the 850s one layer above are a beaut' for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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