yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GFS is about to capture the low offshore at 57 Gets captured at 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GFS is about to capture the low offshore at 57 It's outta here. Need some shift so it's not sitting in front of the nose of the next trough. Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's outta here. Need some shift so it's not sitting in front of the nose of the next trough. Doubtful. it's far enough away at 72 from what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 At 72 the vortmax off the coast is significantly north of it's position from 6z. Not sure how that influences things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 at 78 hrs, gfs has makings of slp south of Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 At 72 the vortmax off the coast is significantly north of it's position from 6z. Not sure how that influences things. That;s a good thing if true (haven't looked yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 81 hrs, slp growing and on the boarder of VA/NC SSE of Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The fact our normally progressive Navgem continues to key in on the SE Coast low to be the main show and come farther North should raise some eyebrows. Havent seen 12z yet tho. It has been very consistent in not sending it OTS. I am playing the odds... right now we have quite a decent bit a guidance giving us a nice solid event with the potential for even more from the miller b system. I get what some are seeing with the gulf low and dreaming of a big juiced up miller a bombing the coast but that is such a long shot. What is more likely is for that to get just close enough to tease us or give some very light fringe snow while screwing up the better bet we have on the table right now. I could see that first system interacting more and becoming part of a hybrid system but that is so complicated the fail factor on that is so high. Right now the simplest way to score is to get that lead system out of the way, and allow what is a pretty darn nice northern stream vort pass and h5 setup to do its work without interference. That isnt even an easy setup but its less complicated then anything else on the table. I am not sure exactly where you are but perhaps location plays a part. Philly is WAY farther east then me and I have a hard time seeing how anything too significant makes it that far west but its still a heck of a lot better odds then where I am. I see almost no way significant precip makes it this far west from that coastal storm. I have been wrong plenty of times and maybe this is the next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SLP popping in VA/NC at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Some quick thoughts... From what I'm seeing, this system that the GFS has been pushing this coastal low further offshore, but we are now seeing it impact NC. Given with what we saw with today's system, it wouldn't surprise me now if it tracked right up along the coast. I can definitely seeing this system coming in a lot closer. Have to see if the Euro does that as well, but I think thats something to watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS looks pretty solid at h5 through 78. Assuming the QPF cooperates we will like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Eh, not a good run. SLP to the south and off the coast is a jog north from 6z. The whole thing remains strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 accum snows are along PA border and north as of 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That;s a good thing if true (haven't looked yet) Its a bit north but its also trending towards more interaction with the trough behind it (not good IMO) and looking at h5 its clearly interfering with the system digging behind it more then 6z or 0z and trending towards the euro in that regard. I dont like that look. Still not seeing what others are with thinking that first system is a threat, its like 400 miles out to sea but maybe I am just not looking hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 an unwelcome north jog with decent accum snow thru 105 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Its a bit north but its also trending towards more interaction with the trough behind it (not good IMO) and looking at h5 its clearly interfering with the system digging behind it more then 6z or 0z and trending towards the euro in that regard. I dont like that look. Still not seeing what others are with thinking that first system is a threat, its like 400 miles out to sea but maybe I am just not looking hard enough. I don't see much chance in the southern system doing anything unless the NS slows down. And the trend has been to speed it up. All it can do is kick things with that space. If it were to dig slower and further west maybe it could tuck the coastal but I'm not seeing much chance if any either. It can't really capture it with the orientation that is being shown across guidance. At best it would have to run up in front of it. Not much really showing that. At least as far as our area is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Its a bit north but its also trending towards more interaction with the trough behind it (not good IMO) and looking at h5 its clearly interfering with the system digging behind it more then 6z or 0z and trending towards the euro in that regard. I dont like that look. Still not seeing what others are with thinking that first system is a threat, its like 400 miles out to sea but maybe I am just not looking hard enough. The only thing and its just speculation. That coastal low could easily go out to sea. But what caught my eye is it comes close to North Carolina.. it may and its a big if, but could be similar to today's system. Still have to wait for the rest of the models come. Thats something I want to see. Anyway, so so run here.. But it would be great if the coastal worked out and then we get that other system. Anyway, we'll see what happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 an unwelcome north jog with decent accum snow thru 105 hrs when does the para run again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I see some minor similarities in terms of how the ocean storm can effect us, with the setup to the NYC bust storm last winter. We had several runs of the GGEM and GFS that gave our area a decent event from the trough pass and northern stream vort and some inverted trough action. But as the coastal became more of a player that robbed a lot of the potential from out system. In the end we got a couple days of light snow and a couple inches across the area but having that bomb off New England prevented anything more like the 6-10" solutions several runs of the models were putting out 2-3 days before. That is my fear of what happens again if that coastal storm ends up tucked in closer to the coast but not close enough to give us the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Everybody has to know that this is the most likely outcome. 1. The trough won't be as deep as advertised. 2. The low forms too far north and the dreaded inverted v of no precip has it's vertex a few miles north of Hagerstown and we end up high and dry for the most part. I hope I'm wrong on both counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 it's far enough away at 72 from what I'm seeing Not sure what you mean but the incoming trough that boots the first storm is just so broad and flat, especially initially, I'm not sure how it could end up pulling the first storm in super meaningfully. I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up a little north/closer in the end but not booting it is going to be tough given the wind flow around the trough. As the trough gets here and kicks up the second low (the one people are into for now, or were into before it starts failing) doesn't have a great shot either because much of the weight of the trough is still at the base and backside. If it looked like it does at ~96 around ~78 I'd like it more. I'm just very unconvinced anything we've seen has meant a whole lot as far as the end result for us at the sfc. My guess is we're starting to move into the answer which generally isn't a great one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The only thing and its just speculation. That coastal low could easily go out to sea. But what caught my eye is it comes close to North Carolina.. it may and its a big if, but could be similar to today's system. Still have to wait for the rest of the models come. Thats something I want to see. Anyway, so so run here.. But it would be great if the coastal worked out and then we get that other system. Anyway, we'll see what happens.. exactly, but todays system did absolutely nothing for me, I am over 100 miles west of you. I think people are seeing different things based on location, understandably. Where I am the miller b is probably my only hope. If I lived in NJ or the eastern shore I would be way more interested in that coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I see some minor similarities in terms of how the ocean storm can effect us, with the setup to the NYC bust storm last winter. We had several runs of the GGEM and GFS that gave our area a decent event from the trough pass and northern stream vort and some inverted trough action. But as the coastal became more of a player that robbed a lot of the potential from out system. In the end we got a couple days of light snow and a couple inches across the area but having that bomb off New England prevented anything more like the 6-10" solutions several runs of the models were putting out 2-3 days before. That is my fear of what happens again if that coastal storm ends up tucked in closer to the coast but not close enough to give us the goods. I agree. Don't think this one is ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't see much chance in the southern system doing anything unless the NS slows down. And the trend has been to speed it up. All it can do is kick things with that space. If it were to dig slower and further west maybe it could tuck the coastal but I'm not seeing much chance if any either. It can't really capture it with the orientation that is being shown across guidance. At best it would have to run up in front of it. Not much really showing that. At least as far as our area is concerned. yea, thats exactly what I am seeing. I am also noticing a location bias here. A lot of these coastal posts coming from people that are a good bit east of where I am. But I just dont see that much more room west for that thing to come. But the gfs caved to the euro this run for sure in terms of bringing the stj system north more off the coast enough to run interference with our miller b and thus lead to a more strung out, compact, and funky looking system with narrow convective type bands and then nothing elsewhere. If other guidance today comes in that way we definitely took a step away from the more impact scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't think the first low is a given to come in closer. This is about as hostile a look as you get to a coastal runner. Maybe if it moves faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Not sure what you mean but the incoming trough that boots the first storm is just so broad and flat, especially initially, I'm not sure how it could end up pulling the first storm in super meaningfully. I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up a little north/closer in the end but not booting it is going to be tough given the wind flow around the trough. As the trough gets here and kicks up the second low (the one people are into for now, or were into before it starts failing) doesn't have a great shot either because much of the weight of the trough is still at the base and backside. If it looked like it does at ~96 around ~78 I'd like it more. I'm just very unconvinced anything we've seen has meant a whole lot as far as the end result for us at the sfc. My guess is we're starting to move into the answer which generally isn't a great one. no, I meant that the ocean storm was far enough away from the MW storm....iow, it was ots by the time the MW vort came down basically, I think we agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 so, I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm cool with what the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think my expectations of 3" or less from this Tuesday storm are generally appropriate given all the challenges, and I'm very well aware of the distinct possibility all precip remains north of DC in a setup like this where we are trying to keep the low to our south. But we are a snowtown the last 3 years running, so perhaps this flawed setup will somehow still figure out a way to perform for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 yea, thats exactly what I am seeing. I am also noticing a location bias here. A lot of these coastal posts coming from people that are a good bit east of where I am. But I just dont see that much more room west for that thing to come. But the gfs caved to the euro this run for sure in terms of bringing the stj system north more off the coast enough to run interference with our miller b and thus lead to a more strung out, compact, and funky looking system with narrow convective type bands and then nothing elsewhere. If other guidance today comes in that way we definitely took a step away from the more impact scenarios. EPS on last night's run were not impressed with Tuesday....mean of around 2-3" for BWI/DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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