rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Rayno update: he thinks east track by a tick. Looking at pressure falls, I'd have to hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z NAM was a smidge east but it initialized 50 miles too far north. It splits the low in two and runs the northern low up through central PA and ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 No drastic changes on the 18z NAM run. Gives WNY 12-18" with highest across BUF east into ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 8:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Id rather be in buf than roc. Riding the 850 0 line is nerve racking, especially when id expect more mixing to occur in waa in an open wave with a marginal airmass and no high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The low is still moving due east and remains well south of where the guidance predicted it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z 4km nam total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 8:1 ratios? At times yes, I use the Bufkit Warehouse website to view the snowfall totals it does much better than those general 10:1 maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 At times yes, I use the Bufkit Warehouse website to view the snowfall totals it does much better than those general 10:1 maps.. Oh that was just a guess for this storm from me. Sfc to 700mb temps are ****. And the lift from waa 850 fronto is located lower in that atmosphere. Theyll improve at the tail end in the weak 700 def that develops tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Oh that was just a guess for this storm from me. Sfc to 700mb temps are ****. And the lift from waa 850 fronto is located lower in that atmosphere. Theyll improve at the tail end in the weak 700 def that develops tomorrow morning. 18z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Keep me updated. At holiday valley. Beautiful conditions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z GFS looks about 40-50 miles east. KBUF looks to be on the .5" QPF line while KROC is about 1.25" and KSYR 2" (not all snow). Think KROC is the place to be in this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well we will see what happens..Fwiw at this stage of the game the euro control has joined the euro in moving east..Looks like it goes east of the apps through sc PA and then just west of HRV..Surface 32 degree line doesn't make it past the cuse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z GFS looks about 40-50 miles east. KBUF looks to be on the .5" QPF line while KROC is about 1.25" and KSYR 2" (not all snow). Think KROC is the place to be in this one... Check what the 19z HRRRX is showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Tim123 is going to have a heart attack lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The indv members looks awesome lol Majority go over the hudson valley..Prob 80-90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 40 of the 51 members are anywhere from the eastern mohawk valley to just east of the HV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The short range models are initializing too far north and too warm vs. current observations. 40 of the 51 members are anywhere from the eastern mohawk valley to just east of the HV.. Very interesting. What kinds of accumulations are we talking for CNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm still confident that the models are absolutely having an abysmal time forecasting because they relentlessly are trying to force this low up the spine of the Apps. The Euro is very close to shoving the whole thing east and tracking it essentially up the Hudson River Valley, which would avoid all the high terrain from the Apps/Adirondacks. The 18z RGEM just shifted remarkably east over its last 2 runs (It had 50s in SYR), and the HRGEM is doing similar things now. It will be very interesting to watch if this system can consolidate east of the mountains rather than track straight through them. An extremely difficult forecast on I-90 from BUF back to SYR, but someone should see a good 10-20". My best bet is ROC, but anywhere 75 miles east/west of there could be the real jackpot. Have fun with that NWS BUF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hard to tell, no snow maps on wb for indv members, that i see..Surface freezing line has trouble getting past syracuse on most of the HV runners..How they get to that point matters as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm still confident that the models are absolutely having an abysmal time forecasting because they relentlessly are trying to force this low up the spine of the Apps. The Euro is very close to shoving the whole thing east and tracking it essentially up the Hudson River Valley, which would avoid all the high terrain from the Apps/Adirondacks. The 18z RGEM just shifted remarkably east over its last 2 runs (It had 50s in SYR), and the HRGEM is doing similar things now. It will be very interesting to watch if this system can consolidate east of the mountains rather than track straight through them. An extremely difficult forecast on I-90 from BUF back to SYR, but someone should see a good 10-20". My best bet is ROC, but anywhere 75 miles east/west of there could be the real jackpot. Have fun with that NWS BUF! That absolutely appears to be the case. You can see the hi-res models slam the deepening low into the Smoky Mountains and almost sense them thinking "Well, now what?" Then the low becomes elongated/splits into two/stalls/etc. I'm not sold that these models have the final track down in any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 RPM, now comes east. Latest run. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Check what the 19z HRRRX is showing.. ya wasnt this showing the bullseye over Toronto earlier this morning? The east trend is evident. I'd be nervous if I was in BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Channel 9 in Syracuse is way west with their forecast. They are forecasting 15 to 20 inches of snow over far western New York(west of Rochester) and a high near 50 in Syracuse tomorrow. Edit: On their 6:15 weather segment, Dave Eichorn on channel 9 said the new run of the model they use has shifted the axis of heavy snow east. It's now over Rochester (congrats Tim). The new forecast high in Syracuse is mid to upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Channel 9 in Syracuse is way west with their forecast. They are forecasting 15 to 20 inches of snow over far western New York(west of Rochester) and a high near 50 in Syracuse tomorrow. I seen that also on channel 9, but that has now changed since that earlier forecast. Had the heaviest snow right at rochester and the 50 degree temps out toward utica now. Everything shifted east from the 5 p'clock forecast to the 6 o'clock forecast on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That absolutely appears to be the case. You can see the hi-res models slam the deepening low into the Smoky Mountains and almost sense them thinking "Well, now what?" Then the low becomes elongated/splits into two/stalls/etc. I'm not sold that these models have the final track down in any sense. I think the best example of that is the latest RGEM run. It really desperately tries to force a primary up the spine, but a double barrel low forms and then consolidates again but further east. While SYR gets up to 41F eventually, it's much colder in general, especially compared to the previous runs. In fact this is probably the most snow I've see on any run for Oswego. Keep watching trends and the 0z suite. Even the WPC has a cluster of ensemble tracks well southeast of their official track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snow has started in ellicottville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snow has started in ellicottville!how long you in Ellicottville for? Think you may be in a better spot there than in Buffalo with the last second east push in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Come on 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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