Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 If it's going to rain in Syracuse, which is likely, I'd rather it be 50 than 35. If we are gonna get torched...Bring the Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roc mets upping the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well we will see what happens..Fwiw at this stage of the game the euro control has joined the euro in moving east..Looks like it goes east of the apps through sc PA and then just west of HRV..Surface 32 degree line doesn't make it past the cuse.. Surface is NOT the problem, its aloft that torches??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm actually rooting for a track right up I-81 more or less. There are hundreds of fellow weenies on this forum (fueled by pimple faced hubristic red taggers) that have stated over and over and over in years gone by, that an slp track up the spine of apps can't happen. Fortunately, those dopes aren't in this board. I'll gladly suffer 2" of wind blown rain and temps near 50 just to prove these jackwagons wrong, yet again. It's shaping up to be an old school southern CT winter storm for me. Which means: you're f*cked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 If I can get 6 inches between the front end thump and the back end wrap around and stay in the mid 30's in between so melting is minimal I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roc mets upping the game Todd is great; I interned under him at TWC way back over 10 years ago. Another fine product of SUNY Brockport! I think mentioning 2 foot amounts are kind of silly though; too much that is not ideal with this set-up. How often does western NY see 2 feet from a synoptic storm? I don't care what the QPF is showing; this one is not closing off and wrapping up far enough south for anyone to get the necessary back-side deformation snows needed to reach 2 feet. Not to mention most of the storms that have reached that level in WNY have had some sort of lake enhancement. I think 14-17" is the max anyone sees, and even that will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's probably just my pessimism, but I'm not liking how the southern part of this is looking. Isn't it 50-75 miles southeast where models originated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Its unusual to see a storm take that track but not unheard of. Heck, its not overly common to see a storm shoot up the Hudson Valley, but obviously they do happen. Its actually snowing here in Eastern NYS! Its not going to last long obviously, but I haven't been able to say those words much this winter either;) I hope WNY enjoys this one...someone will double my seasonal total in this one storm alone. I'm actually rooting for a track right up I-81 more or less. There are hundreds of fellow weenies on this forum (fueled by pimple faced hubristic red taggers) that have stated over and over and over in years gone by, that an slp track up the spine of apps can't happen. Fortunately, those dopes aren't in this board. I'll gladly suffer 2" of wind blown rain and temps near 50 just to prove these jackwagons wrong, yet again. It's shaping up to be an old school southern CT winter storm for me. Which means: you're f*cked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I decided not to make the trip out, now watch it thump out there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roc mets upping the game Yeah real smart for a system that doesn't even know where its going yet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's probably just my pessimism, but I'm not liking how the southern part of this is looking. Isn't it 50-75 miles southeast where models originated? Looks about right to me?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Although that inverted trough East of the Delmarva wasn't supposed to be there so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Todd is great; I interned under him at TWC way back over 10 years ago. Another fine product of SUNY Brockport! I think mentioning 2 foot amounts are kind of silly though; too much that is not ideal with this set-up. How often does western NY see 2 feet from a synoptic storm? I don't care what the QPF is showing; this one is not closing off and wrapping up far enough south for anyone to get the necessary back-side deformation snows needed to reach 2 feet. Not to mention most of the storms that have reached that level in WNY have had some sort of lake enhancement. I think 14-17" is the max anyone sees, and even that will be tough. I have to agree. 2 foot snow totals are of historic proportions for Kroc. And it usually involves lots of lake enhancement. On the other hand, even 12-15" would be a fantastic synoptic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Todd is great; I interned under him at TWC way back over 10 years ago. Another fine product of SUNY Brockport! I think mentioning 2 foot amounts are kind of silly though; too much that is not ideal with this set-up. How often does western NY see 2 feet from a synoptic storm? I don't care what the QPF is showing; this one is not closing off and wrapping up far enough south for anyone to get the necessary back-side deformation snows needed to reach 2 feet. Not to mention most of the storms that have reached that level in WNY have had some sort of lake enhancement. I think 14-17" is the max anyone sees, and even that will be tough. 2 feet is quite ridiculous considering the concrete-like ratios, mixing concerns, lack of lake enhancement and speed of the system. That said, it certainly doesn't lack deep moisture. 7-12 for the ROC is my call. Backbreaking stuff too. I took off work tomorrow to drive around and chase. Should be an interesting day as I'll be surfing the line it would appear. Side note - Todd and I attended brockport at roughly the same time. He's a good guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 2 feet is quite ridiculous considering the concrete-like ratios, mixing concerns, lack of lake enhancement and speed of the system. That said, it certainly doesn't lack deep moisture. 7-12 for the ROC is my call. Backbreaking stuff too. I took off work tomorrow to drive around and chase. Should be an interesting day as I'll be surfing the line it would appear. Side note - Todd and I attended brockport at roughly the same time. He's a good guy. Ur not gonna be surfing any line Delta! All snow for KROC right through the event. I'm thinking Sodus Bay east will see some mixing but I can;t see KROC mixing but I can definitely be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Does anyone remember March 1999. 2 feet from that with no lake involved. And it started as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Does anyone remember March 1999. 2 feet from that with no lake involved. And it started as rain dates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 WE ARE NOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS... ASSOCIATEDWITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW... WILL BE NW OF OUR REGIONTHROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... THIS NOW MAKES US BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIESTSNOW WILL BE PLACED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... MAINLYOVER BUF CWA. WE STILL ARE EXPECTING SNOW AND ICE TO FALL IN OURAREA... BUT NOT HAVE AS GREAT OF AN IMPACT AS BUF. Congrats KROC and you most certainly deserve it thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 March 4 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Ur not gonna be surfing any line Delta! All snow for KROC right through the event. I'm thinking Sodus Bay east will see some mixing but I can;t see KROC mixing but I can definitely be wrong! I feel like I'm going to get pingers mixed in for an hour or so no matter what. They always sneak in further NW than progged. Since im chasing, I'll probably head east early in an attempt to find the line (if it's close) then circle around west down 5&20 to head back into the thick of the snow. Should be a fun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We're did that write up come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 March 4 1999 I was a freshmen at brockport for this storm. Still ranks as my personal record for a 3 day snowfall. My professor (Dr. Rochette) did a paper and presentation on it at the northeast storm conference several years later. You might be able to find it online. I think the consensus is that there was lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Damn good analog right here! March 3-4, 99! Pretty much the same track, almost perfect, with the same kind of WAA as well as a strong HP moving off the MA coast pumping mid level warmth NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Does anyone remember March 1999. 2 feet from that with no lake involved. And it started as rain Yup, I lived in Fairport for that one. 25" then 18" a couple days later. Arguable that some spots up on the NW-side of Rochester had some lake influence, but yeah, that was essentially all synoptic. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0304.php <=== take a look at 850/700/500 panels, and you'll see what a 'big one' is supposed to look like. Think the sfc low got down around 980 mb somewhere over NY state. Then we got 18" from like a 1010 mb low 2 days later, lol. Lake enhancement with that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 March 4 1999Weren't there back to back big snows for ROC in March or April in the late 90s? I seem to recall that. Like 20" type events.Oops ADK remembered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 March 4 1999 Look at what I just posted Tim!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 There were 2 back to back the first 7 days of March that yr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Here's March 1-3, then the one I posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I know. Very similar set up. So 2 feet is not outlandish. Plus in 1999 the following storm of 18 inches about half was lake enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I know. Very similar set up. So 2 feet is not outlandish. Plus in 1999 the following storm of 18 inches about half was lake enhanced. No amount is outlandish if the set-up warrants such!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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