UnionWeatherWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Forky nailed this days ago . Props . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Forky nailed this days ago . Props .That he did. Idc how warm it is those rates will overcome borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Forky nailed this days ago . Props .what about me? I said this last week! I never get no props here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 well my dewpoints are dropping nicely.went from 47 to 38 in literally 3 hours,so i have no worries about rain a.t.m.when the precip comes down hard everything cools down fast esp away from the coast,my general accumulations are 3-5 inches for the city,6-8 just east.there is still some bust potential here so nothing set in stone just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ukmet is well west again wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GGEM map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GGEM map An interesting map if you live in Michigan. You think you could tweak that 400 miles east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ukmet is well west again wow QPF? GEM looks delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 UKMET 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 UKMET 12z 00z that was a big tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ukie is a warning snowfall for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just noticed, winter storm watch floor north east CT now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is one of those spots where elevation definitely helps. Temps marginal at the sfc through much of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anafront setups with warm/marginal boundary layers are always a fickle beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is one of those spots where elevation definitely helps. Temps marginal at the sfc through much of this. Best VVs are over the NYC metro with 850s well below. NYC will easily be snowing and accumulating after only 1-2 hours. Nam has NYC below 32 half way thru. Disagree that this is elevation based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Best VVs are over the NYC metro with 850s well below. NYC will easily be snowing and accumulating after only 1-2 hours. Nam has NYC below 32 half way thru. Disagree that this is elevation based. I'm not arguing snow or not, it's going to snow. I'm arguing accumulations/ratios here. Give me the under on the 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Curious to see how the RAP and HRRR handle ths one. Showing easy 4-6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS is 7 inches of snow for LGA losing only .20 to rain on front end. 6.5" for OKX losing .45 to rain on front end. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLGA&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KOKX&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm not arguing snow or not, it's going to snow. I'm arguing accumulations/ratios here. Give me the under on the 10:1. That's fine. But the heaviest accumulations will be with the dynamics and right now that is NYC and east and especially over LI. Someone on LI with no elevation will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm not arguing snow or not, it's going to snow. I'm arguing accumulations/ratios here. Give me the under on the 10:1. There is no doubt if the 12z MOS guidance verified over NYC there wouldn't be much accumulation at all but my feeling is that it's running too warm, it tends to do so in these types of setups, for some reason it seems to always forecast that the low level cold air won't come in as fast as it does. I just don't buy that by 08Z LGA will be 41/29 on spread, if I had to guess I would say more 36/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS is 7 inches of snow for LGA losing only .20 to rain on front end. 6.5" for OKX losing .45 to rain on front end. Ukmet, which has had this event for days, just showed 22mm of precip. Take off 5-6mm due to slop and it's about 16-17mm of precip as snow or about 6"-8" of snow. Warning level snow is very possible. Let's see the 12z euro. It should jump west again and be closer to the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I dont know everyone is worried abour temps when the best forcing is near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 my money is that you guys get crazy smoked...it snows where it wants to snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Its ~54/55 now and 40 in State College, PA...itll be tough to get any meanginful accumulations from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There is no doubt if the 12z MOS guidance verified over NYC there wouldn't be much accumulation at all but my feeling is that it's running too warm, it tends to do so in these types of setups, for some reason it seems to always forecast that the low level cold air won't come in as fast as it does. I just don't buy that by 08Z LGA will be 41/29 on spread, if I had to guess I would say more 36/26 Mostly agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Its ~54/55 now and 40 in State College, PA...itll be tough to get any meanginful accumulations from this... See the after super bowl event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 See the after super bowl event last year. Should be some great precip rates too. The whole column would cool rather quickly, plus the sun will still be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 See the after super bowl event last year. I think you mean 2 years ago. Very different as we had arctic air coming in behind the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Upton needs to adjust their numbers and out out a watch or advisory. Btw euro coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think you mean 2 years ago. Very different as we had arctic air coming in behind the warmth Going to wait for euro but think this is 1-2 on colder surfaces and melts by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.