nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think, in this case, one of the more important questions is: why are the globals suddenly under performing with such consistency and short terms ( Mesos) been so muscular. Never clearer than with the Blizzard. Think of it this way, if the trend continues for next 4 model runs by tomorrow morning this time we could be looking at 6-12 on the Island and 3-6 from EWR eastward. Thats a very different beast than a trace to 2 inches we would be looking at otherwise from strictly following the globals for the last 48 hrs. SO: are the Globals being thrown off the incredibly warm waters? why is convestion to the east of the main LP consistently showing up and throwing of represention of height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 General public is already looking for answers. To say this is a "Nowcasting" event is a bit early. Why would a blend of GFS /NAM not be a better solution? Because GFS is already way wrong compared to current observations. numerous gusts over 40 mph+ already...just off the coast of north carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think, in this case, one of the more important questions is: why are the globals suddenly under performing with such consistency and short terms ( Mesos) been so muscular. Never clearer than with the Blizzard. Think of it this way, if the trend continues for next 4 model runs by tomorrow morning this time we could be looking at 6-12 on the Island and 3-6 from EWR eastward. Thats a very different beast than a trace to 2 inches we would be looking at otherwise from strictly following the globals for the last 48 hrs. SO: are the Globals being thrown off the incredibly warm waters? why is convestion to the east of the main LP consistently showing up and throwing of represention of height? Imo, it has to do with the resolution and being able to see the baroclynicity causes by sst's. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Think upton will go with high end advisory for eastern Suffolk and low end for rest of Suffolk and Nassau and maybe queens. Could always update later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the radar and the water vapor loop strongly suggests the Nam is on to something. Watch out LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 72-hour forecast from the 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 72-hour forecast from the 12z NAM: Hi Don, what are the units of the legend on the graphic you posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hi Don, what are the units of the legend on the graphic you posted? Millimeters of qpf. Assuming a 10:1 ratio, parts of Suffolk County would be in line for 20 cm or more of snow over 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the radar and the water vapor loop strongly suggests the Nam is on to something. Watch out LI and SNE. been on this since 6 a.m this morning.the blocking and the kicker are pretty much giving up to this beast off shore.stalled low out west is steering this right up i-95 as we speak plus the capture back to the coast later on tomm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gem further north than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 been on this since 6 a.m this morning.the blocking and the kicker are pretty much giving up to this beast off shore.stalled low out west is steering this right up i-95 as we speak plus the capture back to the coast later on tomm. WV loop http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html Vis loop http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Trends and Nowcasting are more important than the models at this point. ...baffled at how wrong the GFS / Euro are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Trends and Nowcasting are more important than the models at this point. ...baffled at how wrong the GFS / Euro are. If we're comparing the short terms to the global and how thy relate to what is being shown on the radar, none of them are really doing a terrible job : Unfortunately, not every storm is going to cause a complete model breakdown (though I'd love for this to shift NW right into us of course!) keep in mind, with our recent blizzard, the NAM was showing a huge hit for our area run after run after run. With this one, it's merely running off hopes that the precip on radar simply comes north and every model is wrong in moving the coastal a bit too far out to sea. At this point, there is absolutely no reason to disregard the models, especially considering there is fairly good consensus at this point (at least when it comes to the coastal). After the coastal passes, the location of the heavier snow band is what will be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GGEM is the first of the "globals" to say the NAM is once again correct... 6-12" with ratios taken into account, area wide... Even the LHV get in on low end warning/ high end advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm so confused on this one..lol. this turns the corner and blows up, what is the time frame for impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the Raleigh radar the precipitation shield isn't moving north and looks pretty close to the gfs actually, just a bit heavier on the western edge. Based off of the 3 hr. Pressure drops the low should start moving east soon. Long island is the place to be for this event for anything more than 2-4". http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The rap has snow into the area by 6z Monday, even the NAM has the precip nearly 50 miles south and east still at that time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ukmet looks a tad more nw than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ukmet looks a tad more nw than 00z And has a nice IVT for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 And has a nice IVT for all of us. Can u post, ukmet site never works on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can someone tell me what the times are for these possible snows please? Is it just tonight into tomorrow or is there more? Mon-Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can someone tell me what the times are for these possible snows please? Is it just tonight into tomorrow or is there more? Mon-Tuesday?mon to wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can u post, ukmet site never works on my phone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That's one helluva norlun. That's good snow for whoever it tags... don't usually know exactly where till it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 For you guys on the east end , lets see if the initial push of moisture and the deformation band can keep trending a little better again for you guys today Last 3 runs of the UKMET The trend is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GGEM is the first of the "globals" to say the NAM is once again correct... 6-12" with ratios taken into account, area wide... Even the LHV get in on low end warning/ high end advisoryVery, very likely the norlun trough does not setup where the GGEM has it. Globals are horrible with the placement of inverted troughs. The high res models are the ones to use and even they have trouble placing them. Norluns almost always hit New England and not us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can u post, ukmet site never works on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Very, very likely the norlun trough does not setup where the GGEM has it. Globals are horrible with the placement of inverted troughs. The high res models are the ones to use and even they have trouble placing them. Norluns almost always hit New England and not us Its true, but New Jersey got a decent norlun last year. It set up south of where it was progged 12 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That map is 10-15mm for everyone or .4"-.6" of precip. A solid 4"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Its true, but New Jersey got a decent norlun last year. It set up south of where it was progged 12 hours before. This is more of a widespread IVT. Not a fickle Norlun that only hits a small area. See March 2013 for a classic example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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