andyhb Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Really a classic time for a Alek "wagons south" post I'd be down for this. Would increase the possibility of a severe event on the warm side and Chicago/Detroit get plastered on the cold side. My type of winter system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'd be down for this. Would increase the possibility of a severe event on the warm side and Chicago/Detroit get plastered on the cold side. My type of winter system. Yep. Tony all over the severe side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 GGEM comes way down into NM. Going to be a big run for S WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Looks like GFS and GGEM are converging on a path through east central Illinois and and the LP. Depending on the placement of that high pressure in Canada, could spell sleet or rain for Chicago-- most likely wind-driven cold rain though the way this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Riding the rain, snow, and looks like sleet edge here on the GGEM. About 100-125 miles farther north than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Uncle Ukie with a 1000 SLP in central Texas at 00z 02FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 About 117 hours before this system comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Pretty impressive agreement between the GFS/GEM/Euro on a 16-24" swath somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This latest run about as good for southern WI as it can get and it is close to what the EPS and GEFS have been forecasting for a couple of days now. Never the less am forced to remind my self that next weeks "big dog" based on a shallow wave currently 900 miles south west of SF Ca. Still models are so good these days some excitement fully warranted.Last weeks EC storm had only a disturbance in the central Pacific to work with and got it right. Trend here hopefully is our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 GEM ensembles. #5 and probably #10 would be epic around here. Quite a few central IL tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 GEM ensembles. #5 and probably #10 would be epic around here. Quite a few central IL tracks. Number 8 looks nice too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Missed that one, #8 Ensemble maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Pretty highly confident that someone is going to get hammered with this. This trough amplifying into a relatively low amplitude/zonal regime out ahead with an absolutely wicked upper level jet streak (but coming ashore far enough north to avoid becoming a southern slider/Miller A) is a recipe for a very potent storm somewhere in the sub-forum. One of the key things to watch is how soon it closes off at 500 mb. Should add, as others have mentioned, that this system has been showing up for a very long time now on the ensembles and even some of the extended operational guidance. It is supported by a negative/neutral PNA trend, decreasing AAM and a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Looks like GFS and GGEM are converging on a path through east central Illinois and and the LP. Depending on the placement of that high pressure in Canada, could spell sleet or rain for Chicago-- most likely wind-driven cold rain though the way this winter has been. Plenty of time to watch but so far, fwiw, the modeled high pressure is weaker than the Dec 28 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Stronger wave out front in CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Plenty of time to watch but so far, fwiw, the modeled high pressure is weaker than the Dec 28 storm. And that ridge is going to be the key player I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Starts out south but still ends up over KS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Starts out south but still ends up over KS.. And central IL at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Then to central IL. Heads up into the high like the 18z GFS track did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If it doesn't wrap up so quickly it would have kept moving ENE, considering the ECMWF's tendency to wrap systems up too quickly, I would consider this run a nice step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 And central IL at 168. It literally zig zags its way through the plains and into our area. Sfc low goes east from the northwest TX PH into OK then northeast to KC then east to PIA then northeast to over Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I think it recurves the way it does, is because that Sunday wave that scoots across the Great Lakes and then strengthens in Canada wasn't as strong on the EURO as it was the GGEM & GFS. 500mb differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 174 Note, 174hr ECMWF shows 990mb near Davenport IA, pretty amped solution. Some hints of severe weather in the South and Ohio Valley. Chicago is 2 degrees C at 850mb (sorry Chicago folks). Green Bay and into central WI have max possibility of heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 At least the NAVGEM is south... *sighs* Edit: 06z GFS seems to be in the same location and weaker, although more widespread snow throughout N Illinois but changes over to sleet/ice/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 a couple of positive developments opening doors for those a bit further east...the quicker/stronger lead energy helps to keep heights from rising too fast in the easy and it seems like models are slowly shifting the initial slp post lee side cyclogenesis a bit further south. That said, still plenty of room between waves for heights to jack back up, wide open mid-level trajectories from the bulk and the left turn signal won't shut off. Still looks to cut over my head or just west...just more wintery on the lead end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Been a long time comin', but "Bowme's Revenge " storm is now being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Plenty of time to watch but so far, fwiw, the modeled high pressure is weaker than the Dec 28 storm. And I think that makes a huge difference here.. fwiw as well, it continues to deepen... original runs were at 1004, now at 990... encouraging Highs near 50 though on Sunday in areas of LOT. Far too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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