Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 18z GEFS mean SLP track jumped south. Northern OK to SPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 There's no rhyme nor reason to the EURO's way off solutions 48 hours + out. They've gone both ways this winter, which makes it harder to try to understand what it is doing. It would be one thing if it had a NW bias or a SE one, then we could make a logical guess with some confidence. Last time the EURO had a big storm like this was the snow and sleet one and it was taking the low way too far west... until the last 36 hours. The current GFS and ECMWF tracks are pretty similar though. Not like they are way apart. I guess folks like us have to hope they're both wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The current GFS and ECMWF tracks are pretty similar though. Not like they are way apart. I guess folks like us have to hope they're both wrong. I find it strange that the GFS is actually agreeing with it. Having the GFS following the EURO around is kind of nerve wracking. The EURO didn't even bring the snow north of Baltimore until within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 From the big dog to the chihuahua this is silly, the signal for a deep qpf bomb is as strong as ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 EPS low plots. Where it ejects out is key and where it closes off at. The map before Thundersnow's animation on the last page. Difference in the high pressure positions. 12z vs. 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Given how craptastic the last several years have been I'm looking forward to an early start to chase season in IN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST SOME RISK FORSEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS SEEMSMORE PROBABLE NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTOPORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEEVALLEYS...RATHER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 fim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 DGEX, why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Powerball strung out turd special Besides the nickel & dime clippers, we have admittedly be doing those pretty well also. So I'm definitely expecting a solution similar to that if, in the unlikely event, we end up on the cold side of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hopefully we can establish a pattern where 40's and 50's are common into February. Much better than rain to seasonably cold...rinse and repeat. We were due for a winter like this. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Well, at least the CMC looks better organized at 180 than it did at 12z. CMC did for a little while seem like it may try to legitimately bomb this thing out But of course, not unexpectedly, it disappointed big time instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 this is silly, the signal for a deep qpf bomb is as strong as ever Not in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Low shifted south of San Francisco by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This run looks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Low kicks out 150 miles farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Low ejects farther south (OK panhandle) on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I've noticed the GFS gradually making that lead piece of energy more prominent. Looks like it goes sub 990 traveling into Quebec. That could have a positive outcome further down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Going to be big for Iowa this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Chicago still has precip type concerns but big step in the right direction this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Cyclone or just north, is buried on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hype train pulling back into the station? Watching of the moving parts on this one is pretty entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wicked dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Chicago still has precip type concerns but big step in the right direction this run. ORD gets to like 34° right before the dry slot hits. Big run, big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 0Z trended cooler all around, might be hope around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Any time I see Geos posting, I know there's good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 12" amounts shifted 150-175 miles farther south this run, from LSE to DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If trends continue, Geos will be in guaranteed snow city. If the rest of us luck out we may cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Really a classic time for a Alek "wagons south" post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Time for Chicago and Detroit to reel this one in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Time for Chicago and Detroit to reel this one in? Leads hope. Sunday system really looks like it keeps ridging down some behind it and ahead of the main event. Also looks like it comes ashore further south a bit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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