snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I could live with the 6z GFS. Shovellable snow followed by slop. About as good as it gets this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 changes in the western trough last three GEFS runs 18z 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Consistency on someone getting nailed has been impressive. Euro has the low through West central Illinois at 989mb, eventually cutting through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I could live with the 6z GFS. Shovellable snow followed by slop. About as good as it gets this winter. Sometimes front end snows can over achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 changes in the western trough last three GEFS runs 18z z 6z If it can get far enough south as the US/Mexico border, things could get real interesting.... It's trending that way at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If it can get far enough south as the US/Mexico border, things could get real interesting.... It's trending that way at least that's the weenie hope at this point, would help drive SLP development further south and give better low level cold a chance to filter in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Parallel Euro cut off early on in the run (at least on wxbell) so can't tell much from it. At this point I'd feel better if I were in the northwest half of IA up through WI, but it's still not too late for some of us further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Classic mid CONUS Big dog with severe down south (D7 risk added)...someone gonna get dumped on in the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Parallel Euro cut off early on in the run (at least on wxbell) so can't tell much from it. At this point I'd feel better if I were in the northwest half of IA up through WI, but it's still not too late for some of us further southeast. I think the H5 picture unfolding off the CA coast between 84-120 hints at potential further digging...there is a lot of energy going into the base of that trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 WPC maps in the extended with decent surface maps and 500s...Not the perfect set up locally...but certainly favorable for the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Sure looks like another sloppy solution is in the cards for the Chicago metro... every 5 weeks or so this winter like clockwork.November 20December 28February 2March 9??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If this comes to fruition to a significant event for Milwaukee and/or Chicago, Groundhog Day will be looked upon very favorably on this board. Of course, you have the irony of the movie 'Groundhog Day's being set in Woodstock and centered around a weatherman forecasting a big blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This has been the winter of the south trend. Let's see if we can make some Magic happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 We have the DGEX, JMA, NAVGEM, and Ukie on board for MBY....what more do you need??? GFS looking good out west at 500 thru H108 4 corners SLP at H114....still digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 We have the DGEX, JMA, NAVGEM, and Ukie on board for MBY....what more do you need??? GFS looking good out west at 500 thru H108 4 corners SLP at H114....still digging it's digging like we need but the lead wave didn't do enough to take down heights further east, it's going to cut really west hard and should be another bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 it's digging like we need but the lead wave didn't do enough to take down heights further east, it's going to cut really west hard and should be another bomb could be.....pac ridge trying to help on the ass end and keep things neutral ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 so much potential with this trough, it's got jet energy for days and a textbook h5 setup, just sucks about the garbage airmass further east easily the best potential for the region all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Going even farther south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Free Bowme (just in time for this storm)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Going even farther south on this run. nope, tried to dig but it's too fast and wraps up right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If this comes to fruition to a significant event for Milwaukee and/or Chicago, Groundhog Day will be looked upon very favorably on this board. Of course, you have the irony of the movie 'Groundhog Day's being set in Woodstock and centered around a weatherman forecasting a big blizzard.Yeah, I'll take it. 11/20 was awesome. Great lead up all week, first flakes fell after work day ended, Friday night, death band, etc... But another GHD would be icing on the cake.Sent from my SM-N910P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nice front end thump setup on the 12z GFS verbatim north of I-80 in Illinois on Tuesday. Looks like sleet/ice to rain south of I-80 down to parts of central IL. Potential for high end advisory/low end warning criteria snow amounts before dry slot arrives. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nice front end thump setup on the 12z GFS verbatim north of I-80 in Illinois on Tuesday. Looks like sleet/ice to rain south of I-80 down to parts of central IL. Potential for high end advisory/low end warning criteria snow amounts before dry slot arrives. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk I think we can do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Not as far west as I thought it might go. Don't want to be in the best corridor yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The trend is there more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I think we can do betterAgreed. I like that the Sunday wave stayed strong and kept baroclinic zone farther south prior to precip arrival, with dry ~1030 mb sfc high north of the GL. Key is getting wave to dig farther south and east so we can get WAA + deformation snows like whats currently being modeled further N & W. I'd take the GFS run as a consolation prize though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Need the Sunday wave to be stronger and further south I think. What RC just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 I think we can do better So do I. Really favorable changes/improvements to H5 with regard to the digging, just need to improve further east some. It can be done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Looks like things are pointing in the direction of something happening. I am thinking that some I need to keep the shovels out, and the salt handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 it's digging like we need but the lead wave didn't do enough to take down heights further east, it's going to cut really west hard and should be another bomb Yeah...step back from 6z because of the weaker/faster lead storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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