Hoosier Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Still in the timeframe where pretty significant track changes can occur but really don't have high hopes for this one imby in terms of big snowstorm. Think it makes sense to set expectations very low and just hope for a more wintry front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Geesh, lots of members above through southern IL, wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 If the GFS is right with that stronger northern stream vort (definitely more noticeable over the last 24 hours), I like where this is going. Might be getting optimistic here now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Still in the timeframe where pretty significant track changes can occur but really don't have high hopes for this one imby in terms of big snowstorm. Think it makes sense to set expectations very low and just hope for a more wintry front end thump. Excitement level was definitely higher this time yesterday. Would like to see the models go back to the 0z runs last night (GEM and GFS). We need like a 1040 high just north of Lake of the Woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Still in the timeframe where pretty significant track changes can occur but really don't have high hopes for this one imby in terms of big snowstorm. Think it makes sense to set expectations very low and just hope for a more wintry front end thump. Yeah, I'm pretty much prepared for primarily rain followed by dry slot, and perhaps some wrap around flurries/snow showers. Best case scenario at this point looks to be a front end dump before a change to rain, but that seems pretty unusual for this area. The front end dumps usually tend to take place northeast of here. Still a long ways to go, but my gut feeling has been that the northwest half of Iowa will cash in yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 CMC ensembles are all over the map tonight. Mean swung east about 150 miles. Isn't that the 00z run from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Isn't that the 00z run from last night? Yeah- never mind everyone, I thought it updated already. Going to closer to 1am before it does update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah, I'm pretty much prepared for primarily rain followed by dry slot, and perhaps some wrap around flurries/snow showers. Best case scenario at this point looks to be a front end dump before a change to rain, but that seems pretty unusual for this area. The front end dumps usually tend to take place northeast of here. Still a long ways to go, but my gut feeling has been that the northwest half of Iowa will cash in yet again. Honestly I can't remember the last time I had a good front end dump of snow before changing to rain. Not talking about storms that are mostly snow and then end as light rain/drizzle but storms where there's a good amount of both. Dec 28 almost pulled it off here but the front end dump was sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 People throwing in the towel a little prematurely if you ask me. 120hrs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 EURO going crazy with the northern stream wave. 10 mb lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 People throwing in the towel a little prematurely if you ask me. 120hrs to go. Agreed, some small changes and we'll be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 People throwing in the towel a little prematurely if you ask me. 120hrs to go. Yep.. Lets get it fully inside of 120hrs first and then see what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That's a bit different Almost down to Dallas now. It's a good 350 miles farther east than it was on the 0z run yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 People throwing in the towel a little prematurely if you ask me. 120hrs to go.This. Can't live and die by operational runs at this point, tons of time for significant changes. The storm has been on the models for an incredibly long time as these things go, so it feels much closer to the event than it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Still in the timeframe where pretty significant track changes can occur but really don't have high hopes for this one imby in terms of big snowstorm. Think it makes sense to set expectations very low and just hope for a more wintry front end thump. My whole winter there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Base of the trough has dug in farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Honestly I can't remember the last time I had a good front end dump of snow before changing to rain. Not talking about storms that are mostly snow and then end as light rain/drizzle but storms where there's a good amount of both. Dec 28 almost pulled it off here but the front end dump was sleet. Yeah I can't remember one either off the top of my head. We've had many brief front end snows that quickly changed over to rain or mix with minor accums, but substantial front end thumps are hard to come by in this area. Colder air usually gets dislodged a little quicker here southwest of the lakes with a cutter. People throwing in the towel a little prematurely if you ask me. 120hrs to go. I definitely haven't thrown in the towel, but I'm not overly excited about heavy snow prospects at this point. Overall the theme has been for the main corridor of heavy snow to line up over the northwest half of IA up into WI. Some op runs, and some various ensemble members have shown some solutions southeast of that, but many of the main op runs have displaced the heaviest snow well northwest of this area up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wasn't thinking the EURO was going to budge that much. It was probably that Hudson Bay low that did it. Looks like the heavy snow will be out by you on the EURO, Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Base of the trough has dug in farther. The problem is still it going negatively tilted early. Look at 540 height contour in the trof..already negatively tilted...if we could get it to stay more N/S and neutral longer then the sfc low would be able to gain some longitude before cutting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The problem is still it going negatively tilted early. Look at 540 height contour in the trof..already negatively tilted...if we could get it to stay more N/S and neutral longer then the sfc low would be able to gain some longitude before cutting north. Yeah I see that. GGEM was more N/S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Well then... I thought it was going to better in your area, Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wasn't thinking the EURO was going to budge that much. It was probably that Hudson Bay low that did it. Looks like the heavy snow will be out by you on the EURO, Cyclone. Nice. Good step in the right direction. I may tend to be a little pessimistic (even more than usual lol) when it comes to these southwest flow systems, or cutters. I've been burnt too many times in situations where we were modeled to be safely in the subfreezing air through the column, only to have an over-achieving WCB push back against the colder air enough to create precip type issues. Unless this area is modeled to be deep into the subfreezing region I'll always remain a bit skeptical/conservative when it comes to snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This run of the Euro verbatim does have a good front end thump over northern IL north of I-80 arriving after 06z Tuesday. 850s and 925 mb temps start cold enough and there is northeast low level flow to try to hold off the warming some for a time. Also very strong WAA gets the precip surging in quicker than on the GFS. Based off 925 mb level taking longer to warm, snow would go to sleet/mix then rain before dryslotting. This might be a more realistic scenario to get any decent accums in nrn IL. Edit: Unless magnitude of WAA forces a quicker p-type change, as cyclone mentioned. In our favor is that surface flow stays drier northeasterly and even 850 mb winds stay easterly til mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Alright the CMC ens tracks map updated finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Still time for things to change but based on how the models have been handling this storm aloft the last 6-7 runs, unless I see the sfc low travel through LA/MS, it's almost certainly going to be crud imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Essentially nothing has changed since this time yesterday. I'm still riding Sunday's 18Z run of the GFS. Another day of model hugging and hand wringing on tap. And to think, we're not even in the NAM's zone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This is my pessimism: The Low will move over Lake Michigan...it almost always does in these setups. Attracted to the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This is my pessimism: The Low will move over Lake Michigan...it almost always does in these setups. Attracted to the water... Or Superior or Huron or Erie. You make a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I think model support for a western cut (approx over NE IL) is excellent at this point, the GEFS slp mean (for many runs in a row) and the Euro are in agreement. Looking at h5 between 84-120 hrs you can really see how the pac jet pushes the trough east causing heights over the plains to rise and preventing the baroclinic zone from sagging in wake of the initial low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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