r-ville Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah. Looking at all the models I can (NAM, GFS, GGEM) they all seem to jackpot the Mason Dixon Line and/or SEPA. I'm a meteorologist and I can honestly say that someone is gonna get hit good with this trough and most will get light snow and modest amounts. The thing is, almost anyone's guess where the good stuff sets up. Anywhere from DC to Eastern PA is game. My gut tells me it'll be NMD/SPA will get the jackpot due to climo and forecasted low and LLJ placement. It will be an interesting one to say the least. As a side note, it is going to get seriously cold later this week. LR looks active and should be fun. I'm not a met, but I play one on the internet (read as - serious hobbyist with a decent track record) I agree with everything you've posted. I still like the midmonth event. But afterwards, I foresee a possible cessation to snow for most of the MidAtl. Not saying one more is not in the cards, but I don't like the prospects - think it may stay cold but the storm track seems to favor App Runner or Cutter due to E based neg. NAO (if any -NAO). Still though, as I said, we have to "clear the screen" of the early week systems - before we can really comment too deeply on future threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm not a met, but I play one on the internet (read as - serious hobbyist with a decent track record) I agree with everything you've posted. I still like the midmonth event. But afterwards, I foresee a possible cessation to snow for most of the MidAtl. Not saying one more is not in the cards, but I don't like the prospects - think it may stay cold but the storm track seems to favor App Runner or Cutter due to E based neg. NAO (if any -NAO). Still though, as I said, we have to "clear the screen" of the early week systems - before we can really comment too deeply on future threats. When did it start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Post 240 has looked like a relaxation and then a reload. Pattern looks ripe for chances...and thats good enough for me. I'm going to enjoy the next 10-14 days for sure, as snow will be on the ground and it will feel like winter. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z GFS through 78 (first storm total). Not too shabby...for most. other 12z's seem to keep LSV in the norlun action, but it appears that much of the eastern 2/3 of Pa are plowing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It might just be me but I'm not feeling very comfortable with these total output numbers from GFS that are based on 1-2"/6hr rates over 18-24 hours. Hope I'm wrong but right now if I was making a forecast I would cut what GFS has at least in half. Ground is certainly cold enough that if we get a good start before sunrise it shouldn't have trouble accumulating on grass but with light rates I can see surface temperatures flirting with the 32 degree mark during day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It might just be me but I'm not feeling very comfortable with these total output numbers from GFS that are based on 1-2"/6hr rates over 18-24 hours. Hope I'm wrong but right now if I was making a forecast I would cut what GFS has at least in half. Ground is certainly cold enough that if we get a good start before sunrise it shouldn't have trouble accumulating on grass but with light rates I can see surface temperatures flirting with the 32 degree mark during day tomorrow. I agree. Were definitely going to lose some early, but the column cools and after dark, it wont take much to freeze up the surfaces. Fortunately not starting till around rush hour, so Im not sure we'll loose too much. JMO's Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Lol were going to double our yearly total tomorrow!!!!! pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 LWX Warning issued for MD counties bordering Mason Dixon line. 4 - 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 LWX Warning issued for MD counties bordering Mason Dixon line. 4 - 8". So this is definitely looking like a south of the turnpike snowjob I take it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 the silence in here says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 the silence in here says it all. I was going to mention that. I think even down this way most of us don't really know what to expect. According to CTP I could see less than a 1" or as much as 7". Just a little difference impact-wise. What an incredibly tough forecast to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So this is definitely looking like a south of the turnpike snowjob I take it??? granted its Feb 9 and not March 9 but far too often light rates cause a bad bust down that way because temperatures struggle to stay below 32 during daytime hours and it just takes too long into the event to get the cold air established... fwiw the 12z model runs are already too cold for temps this afternoon but that doesn't necessarily mean much right now with dew point temperatures still favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 granted its Feb 9 and not March 9 but far too often light rates cause a bad bust down that way because temperatures struggle to stay below 32 during daytime hours and it just takes too long into the event to get the cold air established... fwiw the 12z model runs are already too cold for temps this afternoon but that doesn't necessarily mean much right now with dew point temperatures still favorable This. I could definitely see hours of non-accumulating snow during the daylight hours tomorrow. Nothing like waking up to a covered lawn, having it snow the entire day, and have less on the ground at dark than at dawn. Not saying that will happen tomorrow but I've seen it down here many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NWS 3-6" WWA in my area, 4-8" WSW Lancaster and York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Any update or change to when this is gonna start? Cumberland county now in advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Adams is warning for 4-8" with higher amounts. That works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 I tend to agree with what Millville said last night. This type of setup should likely deal a widespread 2-4" type snowfall for most, with a smaller corridor that gets more enhanced snowfall rates and prolonged duration. Most guidance seems to suggest that corridor resides in the southern tier. Speaking of the southern tier...I'm beginning to think that when CTP adjusted snow thresholds down to have 5" meet warning criteria in the Sus Valley, they should have instead made it 7" like the upstate and New England CWA's haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like 2-3 for me. Not even advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This storm's dropping 2-4" here over what like 30 hours? Roads won't even have snow on them come tomorrow afternoon IMO. This area doesn't accumulate snow well in long duration, light rate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Lol you guys sticking your noses up, this will double or triple our ytd snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 snow--who needs it.... I am looking at homes on tybee island in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 snow--who needs it.... I am looking at homes on tybee island in Georgia. no snow there..... just lots of beaches..... I can deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 no snow there..... just lots of beaches..... I can deal with that. I hear ya man! I'm rooting for a few inches of snow my nephews are borderline depressed no delays and haven't been able to use their sleds yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 IDK about the not accumulating part, plenty of rural roads you know. From the WWA - THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. The next event, mid month, looks like it won't have this "trouble"/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18Z GooFuS is showing CPA the lluuuvvvvvvvv Thru 39 anyway. This run might turn many frowns upside down. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z GFS thru 54....sorta petered out on the eastward progression. I'll still be happy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I just hope they keep I-81 good and plowed/salted. As luck would have it, I'm going to Harrisonburg, VA tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I just hope they keep I-81 good and plowed/salted. As luck would have it, I'm going to Harrisonburg, VA tomorrow.get that GoPro ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'd take 4 inches of snow. Lol I have to be clear, Atomix is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 get that GoPro ready! I usually only shoot on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but I might make an exception. You should see my Waterbury video from Friday...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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