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Central PA - February 2016


MAG5035

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Yeah. Looking at all the models I can (NAM, GFS, GGEM) they all seem to jackpot the Mason Dixon Line and/or SEPA.

 

I'm a meteorologist and I can honestly say that someone is gonna get hit good with this trough and most will get light snow and modest amounts. The thing is, almost anyone's guess where the good stuff sets up. Anywhere from DC to Eastern PA is game. My gut tells me it'll be NMD/SPA will get the jackpot due to climo and forecasted low and LLJ placement. It will be an interesting one to say the least.

As a side note, it is going to get seriously cold later this week. LR looks active and should be fun.

 

I'm not a met, but I play one on the internet (read as - serious hobbyist with a decent track record)

 

I agree with everything you've posted. I still like the midmonth event. But afterwards, I foresee a possible cessation to snow for most of the MidAtl. Not saying one more is not in the cards, but I don't like the prospects - think it may stay cold but the storm track seems to favor App Runner or Cutter due to E based neg. NAO (if any -NAO).

 

Still though, as I said, we have to "clear the screen" of the early week systems -  before we can really comment too deeply on future threats.

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I'm not a met, but I play one on the internet (read as - serious hobbyist with a decent track record)

 

I agree with everything you've posted. I still like the midmonth event. But afterwards, I foresee a possible cessation to snow for most of the MidAtl. Not saying one more is not in the cards, but I don't like the prospects - think it may stay cold but the storm track seems to favor App Runner or Cutter due to E based neg. NAO (if any -NAO).

 

Still though, as I said, we have to "clear the screen" of the early week systems -  before we can really comment too deeply on future threats.

When did it start :whistle:

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It might just be me but I'm not feeling very comfortable with these total output numbers from GFS that are based on 1-2"/6hr rates over 18-24 hours.  Hope I'm wrong but right now if I was making a forecast I would cut what GFS has at least in half.  Ground is certainly cold enough that if we get a good start before sunrise it shouldn't have trouble accumulating on grass but with light rates I can see surface temperatures flirting with the 32 degree mark during day tomorrow.

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It might just be me but I'm not feeling very comfortable with these total output numbers from GFS that are based on 1-2"/6hr rates over 18-24 hours.  Hope I'm wrong but right now if I was making a forecast I would cut what GFS has at least in half.  Ground is certainly cold enough that if we get a good start before sunrise it shouldn't have trouble accumulating on grass but with light rates I can see surface temperatures flirting with the 32 degree mark during day tomorrow.

I agree.  Were definitely going to lose some early, but the column cools and after dark, it wont take much to freeze up the surfaces.  Fortunately not starting till around rush hour, so Im not sure we'll loose too much.  JMO's

 

Nut 

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So this is definitely looking like a south of the turnpike snowjob I take it???

granted its Feb 9 and not March 9 but far too often light rates cause a bad bust down that way because temperatures struggle to stay below 32 during daytime hours and it just takes too long into the event to get the cold air established... fwiw the 12z model runs are already too cold for temps this afternoon but that doesn't necessarily mean much right now with dew point temperatures still favorable

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granted its Feb 9 and not March 9 but far too often light rates cause a bad bust down that way because temperatures struggle to stay below 32 during daytime hours and it just takes too long into the event to get the cold air established... fwiw the 12z model runs are already too cold for temps this afternoon but that doesn't necessarily mean much right now with dew point temperatures still favorable

This. I could definitely see hours of non-accumulating snow during the daylight hours tomorrow. Nothing like waking up to a covered lawn, having it snow the entire day, and have less on the ground at dark than at dawn. Not saying that will happen tomorrow but I've seen it down here many times before. 

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I tend to agree with what Millville said last night. This type of setup should likely deal a widespread 2-4" type snowfall for most, with a smaller corridor that gets more enhanced snowfall rates and prolonged duration. Most guidance seems to suggest that corridor resides in the southern tier. 

 

Speaking of the southern tier...I'm beginning to think that when CTP adjusted snow thresholds down to have 5" meet warning criteria in the Sus Valley, they should have instead made it 7" like the upstate and New England CWA's haha. 

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IDK about the not accumulating part, plenty of rural roads you know. From the WWA -

 

THE PERIOD OF MOST
  INTENSE SNOW
WILL BE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

 

The next event, mid month, looks like it won't have this "trouble"/
 

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