Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Haha I'm glad some people remember me! I still have a lot of family down in Greenville, SC so I'm always keeping an eye on the weather in my old stopping grounds. This really looks like a blockbuster for a large part of the area, and I always get excited for these events I'll try to chime in from time to time the next couple of days as the storm unfolds, but grad school keeps me pretty busy these days. Have fun everyone! Thanks for moving your output to KCLT for the storm and the link post in the discussion thread! Outstanding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Johnny C, just said he's going with the RPM model! Says it does well! Said the American model is showing " insane" snowfall totals, he don't buy ! Man I would love to get those GFS totals!Johnny cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How I feel being on the outside looking in. Me too Signing off from PGV I'm looking forward to some thundersnow video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Johnny cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rant. Fishel's accumulation map is severely lacking. He left the majority of Wake as 1-3in like this mornings map with tiny hint of 3-6 on it. Only he verbally states he wouldn't be shocked to see anyone in Wake bump to 3-6. Well..... Why not make the map show this instead of just saying it? Other media and even the NWS doesn't match his. I'm near Brier Creek and NWS says 3-8.5in for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My call: RDU: 5" sn, 3" ip, .2 zr GSO: 11" sn, 1"ip, T zr CLT: 6" sn 3" ip .5 zr Roxboro: 72" sn GSP: Cold Rain. CAE: Doesn't matter. Free Packbacker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Zoomed in ice and snow from Ryan:for nc. Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/690299657482665985?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Johnny cash? Nicole Papay, much easier on the eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rant. Fishel's accumulation map is severely lacking. He left the majority of Wake as 1-3in like this mornings map with tiny hint of 3-6 on it. Only he verbally states he wouldn't be shocked to see anyone in Wake bump to 3-6. Well..... Why not make the map show this instead of just saying it? Other media and even the NWS doesn't match his. I'm near Brier Creek and NWS says 3-8.5in for me. because any sleet will greatly diminish our snow totals. concerning me right now is the RAP pushes the snow line well N of us by 10am tomorrow, ahead of several other models. btw im in brier creek as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 My call: RDU: 5" sn, 3" ip, .2 zr GSO: 11" sn, 1"ip, T zr CLT: 6" sn 3" ip .5 zr Roxboro: 72" sn GSP: Cold Rain. CAE: Doesn't matter. Free Packbacker! I hope Clemson men's basketball beats you at home next time y'all play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone tell me I'll stay all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS gives my backyard a 99.9% chance of 6+ inches of snow and 60% of 12 inches+. Mack, get ready to change your handle and buy lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would take my 4-6" snow and 3-4" of sleet on the RGEM and run with it. That would result in about 6" of southern concrete after compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone tell me I'll stay all snow... 70 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rant. Fishel's accumulation map is severely lacking. He left the majority of Wake as 1-3in like this mornings map with tiny hint of 3-6 on it. Only he verbally states he wouldn't be shocked to see anyone in Wake bump to 3-6. Well..... Why not make the map show this instead of just saying it? Other media and even the NWS doesn't match his. I'm near Brier Creek and NWS says 3-8.5in for me. Surface temps going above freezing around Raleigh is a real threat. Also with these setups the changeovers usually occur faster than modeled so it goes snow to sleet faster than they call for usually..you guys really need the front end thump to be stronger and last longer because once that coastal gets going there is a real chance surface temps get to 33-34 around Wake so its best to play it safe. People IMO are under estimating the WAA that a strong low like this is capable of doing and it would be much better if the models had it well offshore instead of right over the beaches.....its gonna be close for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You put Historic in the title. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCeIIcPAwv8 Go big or go home! This ain't your run of the mill rain for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS gives my backyard a 99.9% chance of 6+ inches of snow and 60% of 12 inches+. Mack, get ready to change your handle and buy lunch. Out of which 4 inches will be sleet(yuck). Hopefully we could get a couple inches of snow just to make it worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fishel was quick to say up to 6, but his map hasn't budged and the map is bad for everyone. They always have bad maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Out of which 4 inches will be sleet(yuck). Hopefully we could get a couple inches of snow just to make it worth it. I think those maps exclude sleet. I looks like we may get 6 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet. Where do I sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would take my 4-6" snow and 3-4" of sleet on the RGEM and run with it. That would result in about 6" of southern concrete after compaction. Agreed. That stuff would not melt for weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone tell me I'll stay all snow... You'll stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the High pressure is up to 1029 above us. There is that pesky GL Low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 because any sleet will greatly diminish our snow totals. concerning me right now is the RAP pushes the snow line well N of us by 10am tomorrow, ahead of several other models. btw im in brier creek as well. We should start a Fishel hate club. He must be the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Take the GFS clown map and divide by 10 and it will be much closer to what actually occurs for mby lol. I'm not falling for the clown map traps again this year. I think the northern upstate will be a sleet fest and the southern/western upstate/ne ga will be where the major zn sets up. The weather gods will smite me with sleet once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Johnny C, just showed all the model snowfall for GSP area: GFS : 12-18"( lol) had a lollipop of 18-24" near TR Nam : 4-8" Euro: around 8" RPM: 1-3 Johnny going with the RPM! Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Johnny C, just showed all the model snowfall for GSP area: GFS : 12-18"( lol) had a lollipop of 18-24" near TR Nam : 4-8" Euro: around 8" RPM: 1-3 Johnny going with the RPM! Shocker John Cessarich is always conservative so no surprise there. Always better to bet low and have the system over perform. Oh and he said the "American" models were over doing it. Hmmm...I didn't know the Euro was American. Learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 John Cessarich is always conservative so no surprise there. Always better to bet low and have the system over perform. Oh and he said the "American" models were over doing it. Hmmm...I didn't know the Euro was American. Learn something new everyday.Lol! He said the GFS model scares him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fishel is terrible!!!! Fishel explicitly said not to take the map literally and that the entire purpose was to illustrate that the general trend would be for more snow north and wet and less south and east. Small variations in the thermal profile will greatly affect totals. He said it is within the realm of possibility for someone near the airport to get half a foot of snow. He also said that he would update more specifically as the event begins to unfold. And now you have the rest of the story. Fishel is terrible!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If we get several inches of sleet it will really compact the snow here in the Upstate but we will be a giant glacier that will take forever to melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Greenville county schools closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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