Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The DP is 18 here. Ok, marginally better. Drop it another 3 and then come talk to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's freaking 47 degrees outside. It's a like a damn sauna. I give up. I'm going to OconeeXman's house and drinking a ton of liquor and beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's freaking 47 degrees outside. It's a like a damn sauna. I give up. I'm going to OconeeXman's house and drinking a ton of liquor and beer. In all seriousness though, according to the Meteogram generator, this is 2-4 degrees above the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This was never supposed to be much of an event for us to begin with. The trend today was the models getting colder and were hinting at stronger wedging affecting us. The current temperature does not matter considering the colder air is just now starting to come down from the Northeast. We are not supposed to be even close to freezing right now. In fact the RGEM (18z) had us above freezing until 8-9AM in the morning. RGEM is far from worthless. Don't get me wrong, I understand, and completely agree with you. I'm just saying that there isn't a mention publically about the possibility of anything here, so it would appear that nobody serving the public is using it. And yes, our high temperatures will likely be at midnight before the northeasterly flow kicks in. I don't believe I've heard one local met speak of dropping daytime temperatures, but I could have missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm really lucky right now. Hit 42 in the mtns today but clouds are just now starting to fill in a little bit and already below freezing. I was a a little nervous earlier, but still plenty of time for the CAD to set up for a lot of guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 In all seriousness though, according to the Meteogram generator, this is 2-4 degrees above the model guidance. Then this is really going to freak you out: AS OF 8 PM...PRECIP IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING EAST ACROSS GA AND THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST...SO ONLY SOME FINE TUNING OF NEAR TERM POPS WAS NECESSARY. IT/S QUITE INTERESTING TO COMPARE THE LATEST SURFACE OBS TO THE THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. NAM SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...WHICH DEPICT THE WARMEST AND LEAST DRY SURFACE LAYER IN COMPARISON WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...IS VERIFYING PRETTY WELL...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT TOO LOW WITH THE WET BULBS. OF COURSE...THIS DOESN/T MEAN THAT THIS TREND WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING EVENT...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY...SINCE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PUSHING THE COLD/DRY SURFACE AIR SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...SAW VERY LITTLE REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST PAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If your DP is at or below 32°, this thread isn't for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 If your DP is at or below 32°, this thread isn't for you. Mine is 33. Guess I will pull up a chair and stay a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If your DP is at or below 32°, this thread isn't for you. 29.7f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How are we looking with the Gulf convection? Any dry slots showing up on the short range models yet? Are the temps running on the warm side of guidance? Is the storm forming more north yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How are we looking with the Gulf convection? Any dry slots showing up on the short range models yet? Are the temps running on the warm side of guidance? Is the storm forming more north yet? It's 46 here. Toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 29.7f DP, not air temp bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This thread is going to be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 How are we looking with the Gulf convection? Any dry slots showing up on the short range models yet? Are the temps running on the warm side of guidance? Is the storm forming more north yet? All I know is the GFS gives me 15+ inches of snow and I already promised my 5 year old that. The GFS would never let down a 5 year old, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DP, not air temp bud! 21.4f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All I know is the GFS gives me 15+ inches of snow and I already promised my 5 year old that. The GFS would never let down a 5 year old, right? No never, never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How are we looking with the Gulf convection? Any dry slots showing up on the short range models yet? Are the temps running on the warm side of guidance? Is the storm forming more north yet? Don't ever change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21.4f Whew, you had me worried man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don't ever change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not sure this CAD is going to be as impressive as people think! ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not sure this CAD is going to be as impressive as people think! ok There's a nice pool of low dp's right on the other side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I guess the one upside to being in the screw zone is this can only bust to the good for me, and at least I am not sweating a last minute shift that takes me from 6-12" to 1-3" or whether I get warm nosed. ( honestly I wish I had those worries ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not sure this CAD is going to be as impressive as people think! ok North winds need to fire up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This CAD is BAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just want to thank the boys at pivotalwx. They have big things coming and an awesome site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's our moisture robbers bat man! Happens every time! Cut totals in half and you'll be close........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's our moisture robbers bat man! Happens every time! Cut totals in half and you'll be close........... Don't matter. It's gonna be nothing but a cold boring rain anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just want to thank the boys at pivotalwx. They have big things coming and an awesome site. They generate great looking maps. Not sure if they use GRADS or not. Seems likely. I'm betting on the site going pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've got friends on FB saying they getting sleet/rn mix in oconee co in SC. I don't really see how when I'm a co over and got a 44/34 and rain. Wind has shifted to 5mph out of the NE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's our moisture robbers bat man! Happens every time! Cut totals in half and you'll be close........... Looks like a firehose out of the Gulf to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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