Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hahaha billtown forever pawatch! If you partake I'd love to meet for a brew, if not a coffee lol. I'll buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX and CTP snowfall guidance does not match up along the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So would this sort of forecast for a met trying to forecast Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, etc drive a met to drink...seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX and CTP snowfall guidance does not match up along the mason dixon line. Yeah, it's pretty horrible. They probably have to up the totals to the south and really pack in the gradient to the north. Though, I could see them leaving LNS/York around 18" just because of uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Man that GFS tho. Could use just a tick north on tonight's Euro to gain some confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, it's pretty horrible. They probably have to up the totals to the south and really pack in the gradient to the north. Though, I could see them leaving LNS/York around 18" just because of uncertainty I think CTP might have been better off continuing that 24" zone from LWX through southern Lancaster and York, cutting it back to 18 maybe 1/3 of the way up from the bottom of each county. We all know that Shrewsbury is going to get buried due to elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 New warnings up URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 528 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066-221030- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1200Z/ SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND- ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 528 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA...WITH 12 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 2 FEET ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER. * WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...AND COULD CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATER FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 New snow maps out from CTP are interesting for us in State College anyway. The most likely is down from 5" to 3" but the maximum is up from 13" to 15"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seriously to AllWeather, MAG and all the others here are forecast for a living - God bless you. Forecasting this for the Dauphin/Cumberland/York county metro, which is a pretty sizeable area in both geographic and population densities, seems like an impossible task really. I think I have a few new grey hairs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A little strange CTP has no snow forecast measurement predictions in the zone forecasts (i.e. when you enter your zip code). We're about 30 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 A little strange CTP has no snow forecast measurement predictions in the zone forecasts (i.e. when you enter your zip code). We're about 30 hours out. they don't know and are hesitant to make a call because of the uncertainty. Mine has friday totals, but sat is blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Their own products don't even match: Notice this map has Lancaster proper in the 18-24 zone while their other map has Lancaster at 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That GFS map tho, holy fook! No way that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think CTP's main game right now is getting the second tier figured out; Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Juniata. They must feel very confident in the lower tier to make these calls but their products are showing 12+ in parts of Huntingdon and very southern Juniata and the Watch still stands. I, personally, think they're either going to look really good or really, really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Their own products don't even match: Notice this map has Lancaster proper in the 18-24 zone while their other map has Lancaster at 16. Because the map you posted is from the WPC, not CTP It's very obvious their extremely unsure about this, but they really need to fix the southern counties. These are ALL the combined WFO maps on one graphic. LWX and CTP need a conference call lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That GFS map tho, holy fook! No way that verifies Why not man? This thing obviously has a ton of juice, and amounts like the GFS is showing have been just south of us for the past 3 days. Maybe it's not likely...but I think it's possible 2' of snow COULD fall up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Bernie Rayno is Periscoping right now if anyone is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why not man? This thing obviously has a ton of juice, and amounts like the GFS is showing have been just south of us for the past 3 days. Maybe it's not likely...but I think it's possible 2' of snow COULD fall up our way. I lived in Philly for the 1996 storm, listening to Eliott Abrams increasing the totals every couple hours, and know first hand that the area in PA, east of the mountains, is one of the best as to potential for the biggest of storms. That GFS map is a classic and should be put in the LSV hall of fame but it is not totally unrealistic. A stalled storm sitting S/E of the area can pump snow onto the LSV at 2"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I lived in Philly for the 1996 storm, listening to Eliott Abrams increasing the totals every couple hours, and know first hand that the area in PA, east of the mountains, is one of the best as to potential for the biggest of storms. That GFS map is a classic and should be put in the LSV hall of fame but it is not totally unrealistic. A stalled storm sitting S/E of the area can pump snow onto the LSV at 2"/hr rates. Correct. I remember the 83' storm doing the same thing. 2 days out I was forecasted to get up to 4" and ended up with an even 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why not man? This thing obviously has a ton of juice, and amounts like the GFS is showing have been just south of us for the past 3 days. Maybe it's not likely...but I think it's possible 2' of snow COULD fall up our way. Well, i think you have a better shot at that then Harrisburg. And my none weather wife just said same as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Because the map you posted is from the WPC, not CTP I meant NWS as a whole, not just CTP. I understand it's a bureaucracy and they're prone to such things, but is a little coordination too much to ask for? Probably don't have the manpower for it, since weather forecasting isn't exactly a budget priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not bad. Definitely an improvement over the 12z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Aren't the ENS basically useless at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What isn't useless right now? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What isn't useless right now? LOL More budget jokes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What isn't useless right now? LOLYour mom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RPM Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Your mom? My mother's a Saint on Earth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 looks like a good bet in western Lancaster or east york Co in the 12 or more range in my area in the central to north area of the county The just for a more local discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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